Buy Low
Sammy Watkins, WR, Fred Jackson, RB, BUF - Kyle Orton has made this a functional Bills offense, and that is going to mean more chances for big days and scores from their two most effective skill players. I’m ready to give up on the Bills using CJ Spiller in space more often, so he’ll continue to frustrate the Bills and his owners, while Jackson will keep putting up great fantasy stat lines. Watkins is getting open at will, and Orton is an aggressive downfield thrower. If this offense could scratch production and a win where Aaron Rodgers failed earlier this year against the Lions in Detroit - then there might be something even better than functional brewing here.
Austin Davis, QB, Benny Cunningham, RB, Kenny Britt, WR, Jared Cook, TE, STL - Davis is a gunslinger in the mold of fellow former Southern Miss QB Brett Favre (albeit with dime store gifts compared to him), and he knows how to keep the ball above the rim for his big wide receivers. Brian Quick is probably too hot to trade for, but Britt and Cook are still under the radar. Cunningham looked better than Zac Stacy (who still looked good), and he is a better receiver out of the backfield too. Even in an RBBC, Cunningham could have some flex value, but Stacy is already dinged up, so an even bigger role could be in the cards.
Torrey Smith, WR, BAL - The team is making noise about getting Smith more involved. He is too good to hold down forever, and Steve Smith’s good play on the side should only generate more one-on-one’s for him. I know this is getting to sound like a broken record, but Smith could break out against Tampa Bay, who have allowed two 50+ yard games to wide receivers in each of the last three games, including massive games for Antonio Brown and Julio Jones.
Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell, RB, CLE - Ben Tate is back and West and Crowell could be back on the waiver wire in redraft leagues because of it. As long as you don’t have to drop anyone too valuable, don’t let West and Crowell sit on the wire. Tate is too injury-prone and the Cleveland running game is too good to overlook the potential value here later in the season. Crowell in particular is a favorite of mine as documented earlier in this column.
Josh Gordon, WR, CLE - Speaking of Cleveland now is the time to consider dealing for Josh Gordon in redraft leagues. Gordon is going to come back into a much better offense than the one he left last year. Safeties are going to be quite a bind, and we already know Brian Hoyer can feed Gordon. If you are cruising and 4-1 or 5-0, seriously consider making a move for Gordon before his return seems like it is just around the corner.
C.J. Anderson, RB, DEN - Anderson was a healthy scratch last week because the Broncos wanted an extra defensive back active to face up with the Cardinals. That is from John Fox himself, so don’t assume Anderson is “behind” Juwan Thompson. He is behind Ronnie Hillman, but we all know what Hillman has done with his opportunities in the past. Anderson is the most talented back and best suited to be a lead back on the Broncos roster. John Fox could block his ascent, or the Broncos backfield could just be bereft of fantasy value from here on out, but if there’s going to be a “hit”, it will be Anderson.
Storm Johnson, RB, JAX - The Jaguars offense seems like a wasteland, so maybe that can get your chance to get Johnson from the waiver wire or as a throw-in in a deal. In dynasty leagues, Johnson has a chance to really explode in value if he can claim this wide open backfield. Jacksonville hasn’t exactly produced fireworks on offense, but Johnson and Blake Bortles were college teammates at Central Florida, and they could make some magic against a weak opponent in Tennessee this weekend, giving the team the clarity to install Johnson as the starter.
Branden Oliver, RB, SD - We’re all penciling Oliver into a limited role once Ryan Mathews returns, but that return is still at least a few weeks away (Mathews isn’t running yet), and Oliver has looked like the best back the Chargers have put on the field at any point this year. Assuming that Oliver will have something like a Danny Woodhead role subject to fluctuation and lack of trust is premature. He’s a terrific start this week, and until further notice. Don’t be surprised if Oliver is startable for the rest of the season in this terrific offense.
Percy Harvin, RB, SEA - Harvin won’t have three touchdowns called back every week. This offense is putting defenses between a rock and a hard place with the threats of Harvin and Russell Wilson’s arm, Wilson’s legs, and of course, Marshawn Lynch. Lanes are there for Harvin to break long runs and receptions, and he is looking up to the task. The eruption is coming soon, maybe as soon as this weekend against Dallas.
Michael Floyd, WR, ARI - The outlook is bleak for Michael Floyd right now with the Cardinals QB woes. He was drafted to be strong WR2/WR3 in redraft, but he isn’t even startable until Carson Palmer comes back. You might be able to get him for cheap from an owner in distress.
Cam Newton, QB, CAR - Newton is seeing the field and throwing the ball as well as he has in his NFL career right now. He is going to get a bit bolder as a runner as the season goes on, and some sort of running game should come on line soon. Even if it doesn’t that just put more on Newton’s shoulders, which is great for a fantasy quarterback. The worst is behind Newton in fantasy terms this year, it’s time to pounce.
Brandon Marshall, WR, CHI Calvin Johnson, WR, DET, LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI - This trio of top 15-20 pick annual studs have hit the skids this year so far. Johnson is out for at least a week, Marshall and McCoy haven’t been producing like themselves. If your team is 4-1 or 5-0, betting on any of this group to help you win a title in December (like they normally do) is a wise angle to take in trade talks.
Alfred Morris, RB, WAS - We can conclusively say Morris is the best running back to come of the 2012 class now (even though he was a sixth round pick), and his fantasy numbers should start to catch up to that reality. He should be the focus of the offense in winnable games, and Morris has had a ridiculous number of touchdowns vultured in the last one-plus seasons, so his touchdown potential has been vastly underrated. If Logan Thomas starts for Arizona this weekend, Jay Gruden should just feed Morris 30+ carries and not risk the game in Kirk Cousins’ hands.
Sell High
Montee Ball, RB, DEN - Ball was a sell high last week, and it’s hard to imagine that he’s still a sell high after hurting his groin. In redraft leagues, he’s almost droppable with no clear return date, but in dynasty leagues, he still has the scent of a player who was a cornerstone of dynasty teams that is just experiencing a temporary dip in value. Ball will never approach the perceived value he had coming into this season again. See what you can recoup on the way down in dynasty leagues if another owner had expressed interest in the past.
Arian Foster, RB, HOU - Foster looked like vintage Foster against Dallas, taking over the game and basically outlasting his opponent to put up an elite fantasy stat line. Right now, he is healthy, but it feels like Foster being a game-time decision again is coming soon, if not more missed time. The chances of Foster being there for you in December are probably less than it feels like they are right now, so unless he is as essential to you as he is to the Texans, it might be good to cash him in.
Andrew Luck, QB, IND - Luck is carrying teams right now, but some of that is because of an early season schedule that included Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and Tennessee. Quarterback is the easiest position to improvise at, so you might even be able to pull off trading Luck straight up for a stud RB/WR/TE - whichever you need most. He’ll still be a part of a lot of championship teams, but if your team is struggling and needs a boost, he’s a good candidate to sell off.
Larry Donnell, TE, NYG - Selling a player coming off of a goose egg might seem to be opposite of “sell high”, but Donnell’s three-score game is still in our recent memory, and there might not be another game to jumpstart his value soon. Not that Donnell won’t be a decent low TE1 - he probably should have solid numbers at the end of the year as a trusted target in a good passing offense. The problem is that the Giants are getting into “too many mouths to feed” zone with Odell Beckham returning. If Donnell is not your starting TE, get whatever you can for him from a team that needs one.
Michael Crabtree, WR, SF - Crabtree is banged up right now, and Brandon Lloyd and Steve Johnson are making the 49ers not really miss him too much when he is sidelined. He only played about half of the snaps last week, and the 49ers should also get Vernon Davis back to divide a passing game that is going to resemble the more anemic side of a run-heavy attack if the last two weeks are any indication.