Buy Low
Isaiah Crowell, RB, CLE - With the Browns on bye and Ben Tate possibly back in Week 5, the Crowell hype train will be slowing down, right when it should be speeding up. Tate has never been able to truly seize any opportunity he has had to become “the man”, so why would this year be any different? He got hurt less than a half into the season. Crowell, meanwhile, wasn’t even prepared to play Week 1 and scored two touchdowns.
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, MIN - The universe will continue to remove players from the Vikings offense until offensive coordinator Norv Turner feeds the best playmaker on the field right now. Patterson has undeniable talent as a runner and sooner or later the Vikings will accidentally re-discover this. Teddy Bridgewater is also a very accurate short and intermediate passer, which should only help Patterson’s prospects to make big gains after the catch.
CJ Spiller, RB, BUF, Sammy Watkins, WR, BUF - Here is another situation where “assumption of rational coaching” is getting us, as is “need for competent quarterbacking”. Manuel will either improve or get replaced by Kyle Orton. I’ll light my “Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett see the light” candle and hope that they remember that their offense is based on tempo and creating space for speed.
Travis Kelce, TE, KC - Just another friendly reminder that Kelce is the next big thing at tight end in fantasy leagues. His involvement is increasing, and every week he does something else to show up how rare his talent is. Even Alex Smith can’t keep him from breaking out. As a limited participant in the offense, Kelce is on a 53-855-5 pace. If he is fully incorporated into the offense, a 1000-yard season is easily within his grasp.
Andre Ellington, RB, ARI - Ellington is on bye so he is not on folks’ minds right now, but his early-season foot drama should be considered officially over coming out of the bye, and there’s a good chance he’ll get one of the biggest shares of any backfield in the league with Jonathan Dwyer no longer in the picture. The Cardinals pass offense promises to keep defenses stretched vertically, which should open lanes for Ellington to do his thing.
Eddie Lacy, RB, GB - Other than pressing a little, Lacy looks like 2013 Lacy to me. The Packers offensive line isn’t a positive, but it’s not as bad as you’ve been led to believe it is. Seattle, the Jets, and Detroit are just a gruesome trio of run defenses to face to begin the season. Things should return to normal for Lacy and Packers offense very soon.
Vincent Jackson, WR, TB - Jackson stayed afloat during a dumpsterfire last year, and he also established some chemistry with Mike Glennon, who is more able to keep this offense aggressive than Josh McCown. Jackson is still playing at his normal level, with a few additional lapses because of the meltdown around him in Week 3. The numbers will soon follow.
Alfred Morris, RB, WAS - Morris is still running like a bull in a china shop, and Kirk Cousins appears capable of keeping the pass game threat credible against all but very good defenses. Morris continues to have touchdowns vultured by fullback Darrel Young, but that is a fluke that should start to break in his favor again. He’s a stealth RB1 once the scores shake loose.
Theo Riddick, RB, DET - Riddick looked like he had live legs on his three carries against the Packers. He won’t get too many looks while Reggie Bush and Joique Bell are healthy, but if either go down, he has the talent and receiving ability to be an instant PPR flex play, with upside to be more. Put him waiver wire speed dial and don’t let him sit on the wire in deep dynasty leagues.
Sell High
Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, BAL - Taliaferro showed admirable patience allowing holes to develop and he was stubborn and fell forward once he got up to speed. Otherwise, there’s nothing notable about his level of play. It is probably better than Bernard Pierce, but that is a low bar. I’m not sure if the Baltimore running game is getting on track or if the Browns run defense is just that bad, but Justin Forsett will play a role no matter what, so the upside is capped for Taliaferro even if the coaches get over their loyalty to Pierce.
Martellus Bennett, TE, CHI - Bennett is a very nice fit for the skyline passing game, but his early season spike is mostly due to Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall being banged up. He is a solid TE1, but it never hurts to see if you can swap him for Kelce or Cameron or even as a stepping stone to Graham or Gronk.
Kirk Cousins, QB, WAS - Cousins is going to be a lot like the last Jay Gruden quarterback, Andy Dalton. He’ll have good numbers against tomato can defenses, but struggle against good defenses. He might create an air of “next good passing quarterback” against the Giants, but eventually a good defense will expose him. If he is not essential to your team, try to cash him in soon.
Matt Asiata, RB, MIN - Asiata has opportunity, but he can’t do much with it. The Vikings have to see how little he adds in the running game no matter how reliable he is. His weekly upside is capped unless he gets multiple opportunities to score short touchdowns.
Ben Tate, RB, CLE - The bye week could bring a return to the #1 job for Tate, but if the past is any indication, he won’t be there for long. The Browns running game is very good, so Tate will have temporary value, but unless you are thin at running back, it is best to redeem Tate’s value now before it evaporates again.
Montee Ball, RB, DEN - Ball is on bye so the market might not be that hot for him, but it is important to heed what the first three games have shown us about his 2014 value. The Broncos offense isn’t pouring on the touchdowns, he’s not very involved in the passing game, and he is going to be a liability in tougher matchups. Perhaps there’s an owner in your league who will give close to what Ball seemed to be worth as a strong RB1 entering the season, seeing this off week as a buy low opportunity.
