Buy Low
Jay Cutler, QB, CHI - Cutler is piloting an offense that is going to ask him to throw a ton to probably the most talented WR duo in the league. A lot of people see the QB1s outside of the top three as interchangeable, but Cutler looks like he could be in that QB4-6 range. With home games against Dallas, New Orleans, and Detroit in the fantasy playoffs, there is a small weather risk for Cutler, but if it’s not a blizzard on the shores of Lake Michigan, he should carve up those defenses when titles are on the line.
Geno Smith, QB, NYJ - Smith is a phantom timeout away from a three-touchdown game, and he continues to be one of the highest scoring quarterbacks as a runner. He is making progress in his growth as a quarterback, and he has a better receiver in Eric Decker than he had at any point last year. Rex Ryan doesn’t seem to be holding back the offense, and eventually the Jets will give Geno more weapons to work with. He’s a good dynasty stash and potentially valuable player to owners who tried to slough QB in drafts.
Eric Decker, WR, NYJ - Speaking of Decker, I’ll call foul on myself for overthinking Decker this offseason. He’s smack in his prime, and I am a Geno believer, so I’m not sure why I didn’t give him a better shot to be a consistent contributor. He was free for a second long touchdown before he went down last week, but Smith barely missed him. Decker looks like he’ll be a safe WR3/flex with WR1 upside in any given week.
Travis Kelce, TE, KC - Look for Kelce to be a resident here until his true breakout happens. His snaps, catches, and yards all went up, but Kelce is still in on less than half of the offense’s plays. He looks like the kind of weapon that a team features in their offense, and it’s just a matter of time before the anemic Chiefs passing game does just that.
Jordan Cameron, TE, CLE - Cameron should be back on the field soon, but he remains a buy low until he reminds everyone that he is the #1 receiver in his offense, which is massive for a tight end in fantasy terms. The Browns running game is going to be good enough to force teams to lay off of Cameron and play closer to the line of scrimmage. I’ll replay that image of Cameron burning Lawrence Timmons during Week 1 in your heads to give you an idea what that can mean for Cameron’s ability to make big plays.
Robert Griffin III III, QB, WAS - Griffin is probably being seen as damaged goods by his dynasty owners, even though he could still take the field again this year. He could also be pushed out by Kirk Cousins, and suffer a fatal (career-wise) loss of confidence, but Griffin’s running ability still makes him worth pursuing and holding because it is gives him rare ability to stand out at a crowded fantasy position.
Vincent Jackson, WR, TB - Jackson has been held down by a conservative offense, but he looks very good, just like his old self. Perhaps the return of Jeff Tedford to playcalling next week could help, and maybe the Bucs just need to be a game where they fall behind to be reminded of what Jackson can do in the downfield passing game. His numbers won’t stay down forever.
Eddie Lacy, RB, GB - Yes, Lacy stays in the buy low column after another so-so week against the Jets. The Lions probably won’t be much kinder, but the lead back in an offense as good as the Packers will go off soon enough. Check again to see if his owner is losing faith.
Torrey Smith, WR, BAL - Smith is only 25 and his game was showing progress year after year in his first three seasons that follow the trajectory of a star receiver. His skillset was growing and Smith also had shown the ability to produce when he was the only threat last year early on. Steve Smith playing well should get Torrey more opening to get free deep and show everyone what he is capable of. A big drop in playing quality at age 25 just seems illogical without a further explanation.
Sell High
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE - I actually have no problem with how Gronkowski looks, and he is still one of those rare fantasy commodities with the chance to single-handedly win a week for you, but Tom Brady is not looking too hot and that makes me wonder about Gronkowski’s true ceiling for this year. I would certainly be open to trading him for Cameron or Kelce and a big plus (at least a first rounder) in dynasty leagues, especially if you can use the trade to plug another hole.
Jordan Reed, TE, WAS - Even though he is hurt (again), the perceptions of Reed’s value could still be topped out. He is likely to share with the emerging Niles Paul, who seems to have caught new quarterback (for now) Kirk Cousins’ eyes. Reed’s durability worries could still be overshadowed by his hyped upside by someone in your league. See if you can find that person.
Doug Martin, RB, TB - It’s time to acknowledge that Martin isn’t going to be what we thought he would be. I don’t see a deflating loss of confidence and decisiveness to the degree of Trent Richardson, but whatever is going on is making Martin look inferior to Bobby Rainey for the second straight year, and this time, there’s no one left in the organization that is part of the group that drafted Martin. Look for that last believer in your league and sell.
Tony Romo, QB, DAL - Romo has the reputation, the offensive line, and the weapons, but he might not have the level of play to be a QB1 any more. The offense is going to be a ton of Demarco Murray and Dez Bryant, and the shootouts we were looking for haven’t materialized yet. I’m not sure this Romo can keep up in one to be honest.
Tom Brady, QB, NE - Like Romo, Brady’s fantasy value may be running on reputation fumes at this point. The game script last week held Brady down, but he just doesn’t seem like a dangerous downfield passer, or a very precise passer period any longer. He is more than functional in NFL terms and the Patriots will continue to be a winning team with him at the helm, but he might not be helping many fantasy teams win this year.
