Week 1 Overreaction Edition
Yes, some of the surprise games from Week 1 will end up being aberrations when we look back at 2014. Heck, some of the expected games will end up being aberrations in hindsight. But some of the surprises will end up being heralds of new trends. Being able to guess correctly which are which is the fun of Week 2 trade talks. To treat every Week 1 surprise as an aberration is just as foolish as treating every Week 1 surprise as the new reality. Inform yourself and make educated guesses. Here are mine for this week.
Buy Low
Marvin Jones, WR, CIN, Kenny Stills, WR, NO - The buzz has died down on this young duo because they are hurt, but it will surely pick back up once they take the field if they grow from the exciting level of play they established last year.
Arian Foster, RB, HOU - Injury worries about Foster made his stock a falling knife in dynasty during the preseason, but Foster looked like good old Foster vs. Washington and he should be the focal point of the offense. He’s a stealth RB1 in PPR leagues.
Dwayne Allen, TE, IND - Allen had a conspicuous long catch and run touchdown and two other red zone receptions (and two fumbles) on Sunday Night Football in front of a national audience. He’s still a buy low because he went undrafted in some leagues and he has a lot of upside if the coaches rationally use him in the passing game more than Coby Fleener.
Le’Veon Bell, RB, PIT - If we were drafting today, there would be strong argument for Le’Veon Bell in the top 5 picks. He looked better than he did at any point last year or at Michigan State. Maybe he was limited by the late start from his foot injury and other camp maladies all year. Get in while you can.
Travis Kelce, TE, KC - Kelce will be getting more than 18 snaps in the future, and three catches for 47 yards on five targets including one end zone target is a great base for fantasy value if his involvement goes up. Get in while you can.
Cody Latimer, WR, DEN - I have no idea if Latimer will play this year, that’s up to John Fox, but I’m pretty sure that once he takes the field in a Peyton Manning pass offense, it will be very hard to get him off of the field. I get dropping him in redraft because of the lack of immediate value, but be poised to strike at the first sign of a role.
Knowshon Moreno, RB, MIA - Moreno is nourished by our doubts. Like Fred Jackson, he lacks any outstanding trait, but his effort and desire more than make up for that. The Dolphins running game looks good. If his owner is willing to flip him for a 3rd or lower, it is worth your trouble in dynasty leagues.
Justin Hunter, WR, TEN - Hunter has Dallas up this week, so what lull there is in the buzz around his WR1 skillset should end abruptly on Sunday. Jake Locker is playing well, and while the rug could be pulled out from under us at any time, for now, the ride could be fun. Locker appears to be willing to put the ball above the rim for Hunter to win 50/50 shots downfield, and those bets should come back winners vs. the Cowboys.
Eddie Lacy, RB, GB - Lacy suffering two concussions in two seasons (and maybe three in three ) is a loss of value for him, but he recovered to have a good year in 2013, and the Packers offense should be able to right the ship against the Jets. Even if yards on the ground will be hard to come by, Lacy should still be involved as a receiver, and Aaron Rodgers should be moving the offense well through the air. Lacy will be fine.
Alfred Morris, RB, WAS - Morris is one of the best runners in the league right now, but he is not getting his due because of all of the turmoil around him in Washington. Jay Gruden should be feeding him the ball after how he ran in Week 1. Morris showed he could be an RB1 without many receptions in 2012. He might not get that high in his potential scoring range, but look for an improvement from 2013. He was vultured by the fullback at Houston, but that won’t happen every week.
Jordan Cameron, TE, CLE - Cameron straight up burned Lawrence Timmons, who is no slowpoke, for a 40+ yard reception early in the loss to Pittsburgh before leaving with an aggravation of a shoulder injury. It’s certainly possible the injury affects him all year and limits his upside, but I still suspect that upside is higher than anyone contemplated coming into this year as a potential #1 target in his team’s passing game with big play and red zone domination ability.
Sell High
Zac Stacy, RB, STL - Find the biggest believer in your league and get out of your last position in this stinking Rams offense.
Jamaal Charles, RB, KC - I hate how this feels, but I’m worried that this year will be more like 2012 than 2013 for Charles. He won’t be held down every week and Andy Reid’s underuse last week was a major contributing factor, but Week 1 was less than half of his lowest total yardage game in 2013, and the Chiefs in general look like a sinking ship with road games against Miami, San Diego, San Francisco and a home game with New England up next on the schedule. He’ll have some massive games and plays, but he won’t provide the consistency of a strong RB1 on a woeful losing team. I’d trade him for Le’Veon Bell and something else of value in a blink. Maybe even for Bell straight up.
Justin Forsett, RB, BAL - Textbook stuff here. Try to catch a panicked owner if you claim him, get a pick or a prospect and move on. He won’t provide enough weekly ceiling to change the fate of your team.
Bernard Pierce, RB, BAL - Pierce hasn’t shown us anything promising in over a year and neither has the Ravens’ running game. This could be your last chance to wring value out of him in a dynasty league.
Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, BAL - Taliaferro isn’t a dud, but he doesn’t really have any special traits, either. The Ravens running game isn’t inspiring confidence, and they should go back to the drawing board at running back next year no matter what. See if anyone in your league is fascinated with him.
Dennis Pitta, TE, BAL - Pitta’s numbers were inflated by Joe Flacco’s 62 attempts. He’s a low weekly ceiling possession receiver at tight end in a mediocre at best offense. Pitta is at or beyond his career peak and probably won’t help you win many weeks from here on out.
Jermaine Gresham, TE, CIN - Another blood from a turnip player. Any sort of pick is a good return for this stiff underachiever.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU - Hopkins beat a busted coverage and horrible tackle attempt, but otherwise was only targeted relatively close to the line of scrimmage and couldn’t do anything with his catches. With popgun Fitzpatrick at the helm and Andre Johnson soaking up targets, Hopkins has little redraft upside. He’s still a dynasty hold.
Jason Witten, TE, DAL - Winter is coming to Witten’s career. He lacks any dynamism in his game, and he is mired in a half-hearted pass offense on a potential dumpsterfire in progress. See if his name carries any value.
Reggie Bush, RB, DET - There were higher expectations for Bush than Joique Bell, but the 50/50 split seems to be coming to fruition, with Bush assuming a role more like latter-day Darren Sproles than early 2013 Bush. Carolina is up this week and Bush will likely struggle on grass against that front seven. Cash in low RB2 value if you can.