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For the Week 13 edition of Buy Low Sell High, we’ll focus on players who have increased or decreased value coming because of the schedule during the fantasy playoffs weeks 14-16. With 12 weeks of games, we can make very confident predictions about how the opponents will affect production, and in the part of the season when its importance is most magnified. Let’s get to it.
Buy Low
Kyle Orton, QB, Fred Jackson, RB, BUF (@DEN, GB, @OAK) - Denver and Green Bay have surrendered multiple passing touchdowns in three of their last four games, and Buffalo is likely going to need to open up the pass offense to keep up with them. It’s easy to imagine Jackson racking up catches in this trio of games, and Oakland has been especially generous to receiving backs, with three 70+ yard games and four touchdowns given up through the air.
Andy Dalton, QB, Jermaine Gresham, TE, CIN (PIT, @CLE, @DEN) - Believe it or not, if you can stomach Dalton in your lineup, he has a good chance to have good games against at least Pittsburgh and Denver. Denver has given up 14 total scores to quarterbacks in the last five games and the Steelers haven’t held a passer under two scores in that same span. The teams have also combined to give up 14 scores to tight ends this year, so Gresham is a worthy play for streamers in Weeks 14 and 16 too.
Trent Richardson, Dan Herron, RB, IND (@CLE, HOU, @DAL) - None of these opponents are particularly stiff against the run. Cleveland and Houston are prone to giving up big games and gains on the ground, and the Cowboys have given up six touchdowns to running backs in the last four weeks, including the likes of Marion Grice, Andre Williams, and a pair to Denard Robinson. You could do worse for flex plays.
Travis Kelce, TE, KC (@ARI, OAK, @PIT) - Arizona has been a tough defense to crack, but if the Chiefs want to find the weak spot, tight end might be it. Tight ends have led their opponent in receptions five times this year, and five tight ends have caught six or more balls against them. Kelce was able to get free easily in the Raiders secondary last week. The Steelers have given up eight touchdowns to tight ends this year, including one in each of the last four weeks. If Andy Reid gives him a chance, Kelce can finally come through for his owners.
Rob Gronkowski, Tim Wright, TE, NE (@SD, MIA, @NYJ) - The Jets have given up an astounding 12 touchdowns to opposing tight ends this year. Gronk smash, indeed.
Philip Rivers, QB, SD (NE, DEN, @SF) - All three of these defenses have given up big games numerous times to good quarterbacks this year. Whether of not Rivers is a good quarterback right now might not be a slam dunk, but the arrow is pointing in the right direction, and two of his games should be in ideal southern California weather.
Delanie Walker, TE, TEN (NYG, NYJ, @JAX) - This is maybe the best schedule against the pass in the entire NFL. Too bad Walker is the only Titan playing well consistently enough to capitalize on it.
Matt Ryan, QB, Julio Jones, WR, Roddy White, WR, ATL (@GB, PIT, NO) - Two games in perfect indoor conditions, plus games against three pass defenses that look very vulnerable right now. All three games also have shootout potential because of the opposing quarterbacks and offenses. Our Falcons have come up short of expectations so far this year, but that could change.
Tony Romo, QB, DAL (@CHI, PHI, IND) - Good quarterbacks have beat up on the Bears (Brady/Rodgers have 15 scores in three games against them), every quarterback has beat up on the Eagles (Cousins, Davis, Mettenberger, and Henne all have thrown for two or more scores vs PHI), and Indianapolis has also been mortal when they aren’t facing bottom dwelling quarterbacks. Romo is going to have his way in these three games.
Drew Brees, QB, Pierre Thomas, RB Kenny Stills, WR, Marques Colston, WR, Jimmy Graham, TE, NO (CAR, @CHI, ATL) - The Bears have been easy to solve for good QBs, as mentioned above. The Panthers secondary is still a mess, and the Falcons whole defense is a mess, not to mention both of those divisional games happen in the Superdome. Even while they have been losing, the Saints offense for the most part has remained very productive. That could go up a level in these easy matchups during the fantasy playoffs.
Denard Robinson, RB, JAX (HOU, BAL, @TEN) - I don’t want to put any Jaguar in my playoff lineup if I can help it, but Tennessee has been collapsing against the run. Robinson might be a nice “secret weapon” flex play in the final.
Mark Sanchez, QB, Jeremy Maclin, WR, Jordan Matthews, WR, Zach Ertz, TE, Brent Celek, TE, PHI (SEA, DAL, @WAS) - Perhaps Week 14 should see Sanchez find your bench in case Seattle has a solution for the Chip Kelly offense up their sleeves on the road, but Weeks 15 and 16 look good for the passing game. In addition, the three opponents have combined to give up 26 touchdowns to tight ends so far this year, with no opponent giving up less than seven. Don’t think this has escaped Kelly’s notice.
Colt McCoy, QB, WAS (STL, @NYG, PHI) - Ha ha, very funny, right? Well, everyone and their grandma has thrown for multiple scores against the Eagles this year, and the Giants have allowed 13 scores to opposing quarterbacks in the last 13 games. Extreme streamers who like to live on the edge might look at McCoy if you want to put complete faith in the matchups - and of course Robert Griffin III III getting benched soon.
Don’t Sell High
Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA (@PHI, SF, @ARI) - The matchups look ugly on paper, but Lynch had 10 total scores in eight games against the 49ers and Cardinals in 2012-2013. With the Seahawks pushing for the playoffs, Lynch will bring his A game. Remember, he had three total scores against the 49ers in Seattle last year, and he also had a three-score game against Arizona in 2012.
Sell High
Arian Foster, Alfred Blue, RB, HOU (@JAX, @IND, BAL) - By Week 16, Tom Savage could be starting for this team, and they are facing a Baltimore defense that week that hasn’t allowed 70 yards to an opposing running back yet this year. Foster has injury woes hanging over him on top of that. This is not a backfield that will deliver titles.
Lamar Miller, RB, MIA (BAL, @NE, MIN) - The Ravens run defense exploits are detailed above, and the Patriots in Foxboro doesn’t sound like fun for any running back. Add in some injury worries that are causing the Dolphins to go to more of a committee approach, and Miller doesn’t seem like much of a hope to help us in the playoffs.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT (@CIN, @ATL, KC) - That Atlanta matchup looks like a good one, but Kansas City is not, and Roethlisberger tends to struggle against Cincinnati. He has also shanked a great matchup against the Jets in Week 10, becoming the only the QB throw for both less than two scores and more than one interception against the hapless pass defense this year.
Andre Ellington, RB, ARI (KC, @STL, SEA) - Two of these matchups are terrible for running backs, and at St. Louis is just bad for offenses in general. Ellington has had trouble getting in a groove lately, and in nonPPR leagues, he has been very disappointing in recent games. Benching him might seem drastic, but depending on your options, it might be the smart move.
