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Lots of us had stars in our eyes after the Texas drafted Jadeveon Clowney to pair up with JJ Watt on the defensive side of the ball, but Andre Johnson only saw darkness ahead as his team basically punted the long-term quarterback situation and their chances of being a strong offense in 2014. Johnson's unhappiness has been well-documented, even though he isn't as outspoken as other malcontents around the league. Now with only a few weeks until training camp opens, Johnson's situation seems to be coming to a head, so it's time to explore the possibilities of a move for Johnson to be one step ahead of the fantasy competition.
the situation
Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network has published the latest report on this battle of wills. Johnson had already expressed hesitation about being part of yet another rebuilding effort earlier this offseason. He missed some OTAs, and in doing so lost a $1 million dollar bonus for attending offseason workouts. Johnson offered to do extra workouts to earn the bonus, but the Texans said no, according to Rapoport. Johnson has reportedly asked for a trade, but the Texans have relented.
Rapoport sums up the range of possibilities:
One possible option for the team to resolve this standoff (if they refuse to trade him) is to guarantee he's on the roster for 2015. That might bring Johnson back. They also could simply decide to pay him his $1 million bonus. Or, they could stand their ground and he'll play for no one in 2014.
Let's go through the possibilities, including a trade.
What if johnson stays with the texans?
His ranking will remain unchanged. If it was anyone other than the consummate professional that Johnson has been over the years, we would be worried about half efforts and a waning dedication as the season wore on (likely into mediocrity or losing). If they pay Johnson his bonus (he has restructed his deal three times recently to help the team and feels he deserves some leeway), then the minimal risk of Johnson carrying his unhappiness into the season basically disappears.
what if Johnson sits out some or part of the season?
This is the scary one for his dynasty owners, or anyone drafting Johnson near his 3rd/4th round ADP. Johnson is working out and "not thinking about the Texans" according to Rapoport's source. It is possible that he could just use this situation as a reason to not play this season. Again, we have to appeal to what we know of Johnson as a person and a player. Johnson said "hopefully" when asked by NFL Media if he would be at the open of training camp on July 25. That sounds like a resolution to the bonus issue would get him to Houston. If the Texans don't budge on that, they would likely be forced to deal Johnson, but they could also decide to wait out his demands and see if he reports to camp. No matter, there is only a small chance this would come to pass.
what if johnson gets traded?
This is the most interesting scenario by far for fantasy leagues. Let's look at the effect on Houston first, and then the possible landing spots for Johnson.
Houston
- DeAndre Hopkins: Up - sheer volume of targets as the #1 receiver would dictate that Hopkins moves into the PPR top 75 overall.
- Garrett Graham: Up - Graham, like Hopkins, would inherit targets strictly by his tenure as one of the few returning parts of the pass offense.
- Arian Foster: Down - While his reception totals could go even higher than expected, the chances of a smoking crater of an offense increase with the absence of Johnson.
Rapoport has said four teams are interested in trading for Johnson without revealing the identity of the teams, but said some are "pretty obvious". With that as guidance, let's look at the most obvious landing spots:
new england
Johnson wants to go to a contender and the Patriots need a quality, proven outside receiver.
- QB Tom Brady: Up - A top six fantasy QB again, with top 3 upside.
- WR Julian Edelman/Danny Amendola: Down - Sheer volume of targets drives their value and that would take a big hit
- TE Rob Gronkowski: Unchanged - Gronkowski could lose a few targets, but would also shed some defensive attention
- WR Aaron Dobson: Down - Dobson would lose all sleeper appeal this year. A trade could also signal a lack of confidence in the condition of his injured foot.
- WR Andre Johnson: Up - Playing with Brady can only help his value
carolina
Johnson wants to go to a contender and the Panthers have the worst WR corps in the league.
- QB Cam Newton: Up - I want no part of Newton at his ADP right now, but an anchor in the WR corps would be huge for him.
- WR Kelvin Benjamin: Down in Redraft, Up in Dynasty - The main argument for Benjamin now is who else is going to get targets for Carolina? This would answer that question, but also for dynasty give Benjamin the mentor he sorely lacks.
- TE Greg Olsen: Down - Some like Olsen to emerge as the #1 target in the pass offense, but this would deflate that idea
- WR Andre Johnson: Unchanged - While he would get a QB upgrade, I'm not convinced his numbers would be any better in Carolina
Kansas city
Johnson wants to go to a contender and the Chiefs have no proven #2 receiver to speak of, but they do have cap room opened up by the Brandon Flowers release.
- QB Alex Smith: Up - He would approach the top 15 of fantasy QBs with Johnson and a revitalized pass offense
- TE Travis Kelce/Demetrius Harris: Down - The vacuum of targets a receiving tight end was supposed to fill would evaporate with Johnson's arrival
- WR Dwayne Bowe: Unchanged - Bowe would take a hit, but he is undervalued right now, so overall the effect is a push
- WR Andre Johnson: Unchanged - QB/offense would be improved, but the Chiefs were a bit conservative last year
cleveland
The Browns are not a contender, but they have a massive hole at wide receiver with Josh Gordon's likely year-long suspension.
- QB Johnny Manziel: Up - The main thing holding back Manziel from being an attractive sleeper is the lack of proven targets
- TE Jordan Cameron: Unchanged - He might lose target volume to Johnson, but the lack of another credible threat is more of a risk to his value than the decrease of targets that would come with a true #1 receiver playing with him.
- WR Andrew Hawkins: Down - Hawkins is an intriguing PPR sleeper with the number of free targets open in this offense. Johnson's arrival would change that.
- WR Andre Johnson: Unchanged - He would get a slight to moderate upgrade in quarterback, but Johnson would also be in an offense that wants to run the ball.
Is a trade really going to happen?
Johnson's ten million dollar price tag for this year certainly is an obstacle, but with the cap going up and restructuring always available (as mentioned above, Johnson has been open to it in the recent past), it might not be as big an obstacle as we think. Johnson's long track record of professionalism means we must read in a very strong desire to leave Houston. The biggest problem might be assuming the Texans' front office will act rationally, and the 12 million dollars in dead cap money the team would incur if they trade or release Johnson. The Texans are clearly rebuilding this year, so recouping whatever they can get for Johnson and accelerating the development of their young wide receiver corps with more involvement makes sense. They should be able to get a second-round pick for Johnson because of his immediate impact and still very high level of play. On the other hand, they could take the hard line and try to outlast Johnson in an attempt to show that they won't have the outcome of these situations dictated to them. If they were being rational, Johnson probably would have been traded already, considering the confirmation that there are interested teams out there. I have moved DeAndre Hopkins up a tier and nudged Garrett Graham up to TE20 simply on the increased chances of Andre Johnson changing teams this season. Only Houston GM Rick Smith could give us a solid answer to this question right now, and he might not even know whether he is truly willing to deal away probably the best player in Texans history. In the meantime, we'll run these scenarios through our heads and monitor the rumor mill so we have you prepared to strike to mine extra value out of your early drafts and dynasty teams if this massive name ends up on the back of a different uniform.
Update: Venerable Texans beat writer John McClain of the Houston Chronicle tweeted this:
By the way, Bob McNair wants Andre Johnson to finish his career as a Texan. So he will. No trade. No cut. Report of retire.