After months of buildup, the massive release of energy in Radio City was palpable as we watched at home, and you could also feel the plate tectonics of the NFL in motion. What stands out as the dust is still settling on a scintillating first round?
Top 10 Storylines
1. Right Back Where We Started From: The Texans sounded like they were trying to trade the #1 pick, and in their defense, Buffalo’s willingness to give up a 2015 first round pick to move from 9 to 4 shows that their price broadcast in the media of multiple future firsts wasn’t outrageous. No trade was consummated, and the consensus #1 overall pick five months ago ended up being the #1 pick. We tremble for the offenses facing Clowney and Watt.
2. The Aptly Named Rams: An offensive line of panzer tanks to blitzkrieg opponents was completed with the pick of Greg Robinson, who can work on pass pro technique while he plays guard. Aaron Donald next to Robert Quinn could be almost as impressive as Watt/Clowney, Donald had a meteoric rise after a great Senior Bowl and Combine, but ended up falling a little farther than expected to the benefit of the Rams (and likely sadness of the Bears)
3. The Jaguars Pounce: Not willing to risk losing their guy and take a quarterback in late first or early second, the Jaguars saw the franchise QB qualities in Blake Bortles and kept him in the state of Florida. Bortles to Jacksonville wasn’t a combination mentioned often, if at all, so the Jags did a good job keeping this one under wraps. The new regime will be patient with him, but it isn’t the best fantasy destination with respect to surrounding weapons if Justin Blackmon is not in the team’s future.
4. Not Satisfied to Sit Tight: The Bills had traded down out of their traditional pick in the 8-12 range last year, and they gave up their 2015 first to go up this year for Sammy Watkins. There are no excuses for EJ Manuel now, in an offense that should have the all of the skill pieces to maximize an uptempo offense with quick passing, lots of running with talented backs, and play-action shots deep. It’s not the best fantasy destination for Watkins, but he should still remain #1 on rookie draft boards.
5. Stop the Bleeding: The Falcons offensive line was getting leaky, and the strength of the team revolves around Matt Ryan and a terrific duo of wide receivers. How lucky are they to get an instant starter at offensive tackle who has a high floor and football bloodlines in Jake Matthews - a talent that could have gone #1 overall last year. The best team-player-value marriage in the top 10.
6. Beginner’s Luck: Rookie GM Ray Farmer landed a haul on the first day that could be the moment that we look back on as the turning point for Browns 2.0. They got Buffalo’s 2015 first (which could be very high) for moving out #4, and gave up picks from their mid-round surplus to assure that they got Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel, while holding on to their early second-round pick. The Browns were reportedly close to moving up to #11, probably for Manziel, but they got cold feet, which could end up being a massive win for them in the long run, because the price to move up got a lot cheaper in the 20s.
7. Spielman’s Show: Minnesota GM Rick Spielman has never shown a lack of clarity in the first round. Trading down to recoup extra picks and still getting quality players, jumping back into the first round to get targets and adding a fifth-round option to boot, Spielman has signature moves, and this night was no different. He got the player he was targeting at #8 one pick later and snagged a fifth-round pick for his trouble, and got Teddy Bridgewater including that fifth-year option, jumping ahead of Houston and Oakland, for only a fourth. There might be another title run left in the Adrian Peterson era yet.
8. The Safety Dance: No safeties went until Calvin Pryor joined the Jets at #18, but Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, Deone Buccanon, and Jimmie Ward followed in quick succession, and four safeties were before the night was over. It’s a position of increasing importance that is plagued by a thin supply and constant demand. The money doled out to Jairus Byrd and Earl Thomas this offseason was a big clue.
9. The Panthers Get a Receiver (Finally): After being quiet through free agency despite their top three receivers departing (Steve Smith via release), the Panthers got Kelvin Benjamin, a massive receiver with the speed to be a deep threat. Benjamin was also plagued by drops and might be a one-year wonder. His red zone presence will be a welcome addition, but he could add a lot more frustration than production early on.
10. No Running Backs Allowed: Two years in a row without a running back, although that didn’t stop the 2013 draft from yielding a ton of impact backs. We’ll watch Tennessee and Atlanta (among others) closely to see potential instant contributors at RB on the second or third day.
Three Quarterbacks Moves That Didn’t Happen That We’ll Always Wonder About
1. Bridgewater/Clowney: With so many of us putting Teddy Bridgewater as the #1 quarterback, the idea of the Texans somehow walking out of the first round with Clowney and Bridgewater was breathtaking. I wonder if we’ll ever hear whether the Texans were trying to move up for him. With the #33 pick, they can take their pick of the rest of the quarterback crop, and might add Derek Carr, which might spook a fanbase that lived through big brother David as the teams inaugural draft pick.
2. Dallas/Manziel: Jerry Jones love of Johnny Manziel was well-documented, but he also said he never thought he’d have a chance to take him. He did, and the Cowboys used up most of their alloted time before taking OL Zach Martin. If Manziel hits in Cleveland, will Jerry take this decision to his grave?
3. Jaguars Passing on Bortles: With Manziel and Bridgewater falling to the 20s, could the Jaguars have taken a blue-chip talent and still got Bortles much in the first round? Bortles didn’t have the size questions of the late-first round quarterbacks, so perhaps another team would have bit in the top 8, but it still is a question worth asking after the NFL’s seeming reluctance to take quarterbacks early came to pass.
Position Trends
In addition to running back value trending down, safety value trending up, and less than ideal quarterback prospects being available later than expected (but a sub-six foot QB and slight frame QB getting in the first), a few other clear trends emerged:
Size Isn’t Everything: Odell Beckham and Brandin Cooks were the third and fourth receivers off of the board and both top 20 picks despite being under six feet tall
Size Isn’t Everything, Part II: Two defensive tackles (Donald and Dominique Easley) go in the first round, and neither is over 300 pounds. Two defensive tackles forecast to go in the first round tipping the scales at 310 or over (Louis Nix and Ra’Shede Hageman, still on the board going into the second day.
Letting Your Guard Down: After two guards got into the top 10 last year, no true guards went in the first round this year, although Greg Robinson will start out there, and Zach Martin could also end up there.
A Passing League: five corners, five wide receivers, four safeties, five edge front seven defenders made up more than than half of the first round. As pointed out above, both defensive tackles were penetrating pass rushers, not stout space-eaters. Add in three quarterbacks, a receiving tight end, and 5 offensive tackles, and only CJ Mosley and Ryan Shazier are left as first-rounders who don’t play positions that are more important in the passing game.
Three Surprise Moves
1. Dee Ford to the Chiefs - Kansas City appeared to be set at OLB for a while (assuming they sign Justin Houston to a long-term deal), but they went with Dee Ford. Tamba Hali is on the wrong side of 30 and he’s a free agent in 2016, but this was not a move many saw coming.
2. Brandin Cooks to the Saints - In a trade-up no less. Wonder if the Eagles were sad about that? The Saints seemed to be moving to a more balanced offense in December and the playoffs, and the release of Lance Moore combined with the trade of Darren Sproles continued to point in that direction. Now that Cooks is back in the mix, the Drew Brees-centric offense is fully reinstated.
3. Ryan Shazier to the Steelers - They already have one of him on the roster, named Lawrence Timmons. Two inside linebacker who fly around the field but lack discipline could be a combustible combination in more ways than one.
Four Picks That Made Too Much Sense
1. Mike Evans to the Buccaneers - Josh McCown loved throwing to two huge wide receivers last year, so he’ll feel at home in Tampa. The #2 receiver spot was a massive hole .
2. Calvin Pryor to the Jets - A literal impact player who can seek and destroy in a defense that likes to set an intimidating tone.
3. Ju’Wuan James to the Dolphins - Job #1 is to protect Ryan Tannehill and rebuild a line left in shambles. An instant starter at right tackle.
4. Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix to the Packers - As Jene Bramel pointed out, Clinton-Dix and Morgan Burnett are very similar, but there’s nothing wrong with interchangeable safeties in today’s NFL. Safety was a sore spot for the Packers last year, so this is an easy need pick.
Three Biggest Fantasy Winners of the First Day
1. Josh Gordon, WR, CLE - Cleveland’s #1 receiver gets a quarterback who loves to challenge his big receiver to make big plays on contested balls.
2. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, MIN - A lethal receiver after the catch gets a hyperaccurate quarterback on short and intermediate throws.
3. Zac Stacy, RB, STL - The prospects of keeping the Rams offensive line from getting a push are not great with the addition of Greg Robinson.
Three Biggest Fantasy Losers of the First Day
1. Rueben Randle, WR, NYG - If the Giants lukewarm endorsements of Randle weren’t enough, now you know exactly what they think of Randle after the Odell Beckham pick.
2. Stevie Johnson, WR, BUF - Will he even be on the Bills roster at the beginning of the season?
3. Kenny Stills, WR, NO - Stills may still figure prominently into the Saints future plans, but the addition of Brandin Cooks caps his long and short-term upside.
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