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ADP Desirability Rankings: WR

Rethinking wide receiver rankings to order players by how desirable they are at current ADP

Something about typical fantasy rankings has been bothering me lately. By listing all relevant players in order of draft desirability, we still don't really have anything actionable until we add a denominator of ADP. If I tell you a player is my #5 quarterback, that doesn't tell you whether I would recommend drafting him or not. When you add the dimension of ADP, it becomes clear right away who my rankings recommend targeting and who my rankings recommend avoiding. This leads to an experiment idea of rethinking rankings. Instead of ranking players by draft desirability (or projected end of year finish), why not rank players by desirability of drafting them at ADP? This table will show you the rough ADP of a player, and where I would consider drafting the player. This ranking should help when prioritizing targets pre-draft and understanding the next best outcomes when targeted players go off the board ahead of you. Any and all feedback welcome!

Note: Industry ADP tends to lag behind actual drafts, so don't feel wedded to the ADP or estimation when a particular one is worth drafting. Your league might see these players go off of the board earlier and require earlier picks, but he relative order of the attractiveness of drafting at ADP (whatever that adjusts to in your league) should be relatively accurate.

 

   ADPShould Go in
1 Keenan Allen SD Late 2nd Late 1st
2 T.Y. Hilton IND Mid 3rd Mid 2nd
3 Michael Floyd ARI 5th 3rd
4 Michael Thomas NO 11th 6th/7th
5 Donte Moncrief IND 5th Late 3rd
6 A.J. Green CIN Mid-Late First Top 5
7 Willie Snead NO 10th 6th/7th
8 Will Fuller HOU 15th+ 11th/12th
9 Terrelle Pryor CLE 15th+ 11th/12th
10 Anquan Boldin DET 15th+ 11th/12th
11 Tyrell Williams SD 15th+ 11th/12th
12 Sterling Shepard NYG 8th/9th 6th
13 Brandin Cooks NO 2nd/3rd Mid 2nd
14 Eric Decker NYJ 5th 3rd/4th
15 Michael Crabtree OAK 7th/8th 5th
16 Stefon Diggs MIN 9th/10th 7th/8th
17 Phillip Dorsett IND 12th/13th 8th/9th
18 Kenny Stills MIA 15th+ 12th/13th
19 Sammy Watkins BUF Early 3rd Late 2nd
20 Marvin Jones DET 7th/8th 5th/6th
21 DeSean Jackson WAS 7th/8th 5th/6th
22 Vincent Jackson TB 11th/12th 8th/9th
23 Amari Cooper OAK 2nd/3rd Late 2nd
24 Jeremy Maclin KC 4th 3rd/4th
25 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 5th 4th/5th
26 Josh Gordon CLE 7th/8th 6th
27 Travis Benjamin MIN 10th 9th
28 Doug Baldwin SEA 4th/5th 4th
29 Devin Funchess CAR 11th 10th/11th
30 Antonio Brown PIT #1 #1
31 Odell Beckham NYG Top 3 Top 3
32 Julio Jones ATL Top 3 Top 3
33 DeAndre Hopkins HOU Mid 1st Mid 1st
34 Dez Bryant DAL Late 1st Late 1st
35 Allen Robinson JAX 1st/2nd 1st/2nd
36 Brandon Marshall NYJ Mid 2nd Mid 2nd
37 Alshon Jeffery CHI Late 2nd Late 2nd
38 Demaryius Thomas DEN Mid 3rd Mid 3rd
39 Jarvis Landry MIA Late 3rd Late 3rd
40 Randall Cobb GB 3rd/4th 3rd/4th
41 Julian Edelman NE 4th 4th
42 Golden Tate DET 4th/5th 4th/5th
32 Tyler Lockett SEA 6th/7th 6th/7th
43 John Brown ARI 7th 7th
44 Allen Hurns JAX 6th/7th 6th/7th
45 Corey Coleman CLE 10th 10th
46 Torrey Smith SF 10th 10th
47 Markus Wheaton PIT 11th 11th
48 Laquon Treadwell MIN 11th 11th
49 Kamar Aiken BAL 11th/12th 11th/12th
50 Sammie Coates PIT 11th/12th 11th/12th
51 Dorial Green-Beckham PHI 13th 13th
52 Rishard Matthews TEN 14th 14th
53 Tavon Austin LA 10th 10th/11th
54 Mohamed Sanu ATL 12th/13th 13th/14th
55 Tyler Boyd CIN 13th/14th 15th+
56 Kevin White CHI 8th/9th 9th
57 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 5th/6th 6th
58 Jordan Matthews PHI 5th/6th 6th
59 Steve Smith BAL 11th/12th 13th/14th
60 Mike Evans TB Late 2nd 2nd/3rd
61 DeVante Parker MIA 8th 11th/12th
62 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 4th 5th/6th
63 Jordy Nelson GB Early 2nd 3rd

Notes: Michael Floyd, Donte Moncrief, and Eric Decker's artifically low ADPs allow early RB drafters to get away with it. Rookies Michael Thomas and Sterling Shepard present starter upside at a bench price. Most wide receivers going in the early rounds present reasonable ADP vs value propositions, which makes Mike Evans (inconsistent play), Kelvin Benjamin (conditioning), and Jordy Nelson (knees) easy to avoid. Washington, Indianapolis, Cleveland, New Orleans, and Seattle wide receivers are undervalued almost across the board, and only Indianapolis is lacking an undervalued quarterback to match.