Something about typical fantasy rankings has been bothering me lately. By listing all relevant players in order of draft desirability, we still don't really have anything actionable until we add a denominator of ADP. If I tell you a player is my #5 quarterback, that doesn't tell you whether I would recommend drafting him or not. When you add the dimension of ADP, it becomes clear right away who my rankings recommend targeting and who my rankings recommend avoiding. This leads to an experiment idea of rethinking rankings. Instead of ranking players by draft desirability (or projected end of year finish), why not rank players by desirability of drafting them at ADP? This table will show you the rough ADP of a player, and where I would consider drafting the player. This ranking should help when prioritizing targets pre-draft and understanding the next best outcomes when targeted players go off the board ahead of you. Any and all feedback welcome!
Note: Industry ADP tends to lag behind actual drafts, so don't feel wedded to the ADP or estimation when a particular one is worth drafting. Your league might see these players go off of the board earlier and require earlier picks, but he relative order of the attractiveness of drafting at ADP (whatever that adjusts to in your league) should be relatively accurate.
|ADP||Should Go In|
|21||Rob Gronkowski||NE||Mid-Late 1st||Mid 2nd|
Notes: Your mission is clear at tight end. Get Jordan Reed in third or fourth and one of Gates/Bennett/Allen in the 8th-12th range, or get two of the 8th-12th round tight ends. Eric Ebron is a slight value in the Detroit offense with his ankle injury, and Tyler Eifert could pay off over time at his reasonable price. Other targets if you get repeatedly sniped would be Julius Thomas, Zach Ertz, and Gary Barnidge at prices we can stomach,