Something about typical fantasy rankings has been bothering me lately. By listing all relevant players in order of draft desirability, we still don't really have anything actionable until we add a denominator of ADP. If I tell you a player is my #5 quarterback, that doesn't tell you whether I would recommend drafting him or not. When you add the dimension of ADP, it becomes clear right away who my rankings recommend targeting and who my rankings recommend avoiding. This leads to an experiment idea of rethinking rankings. Instead of ranking players by draft desirability (or projected end of year finish), why not rank players by desirability of drafting them at ADP? This table will show you the rough ADP of a player, and where I would consider drafting the player. This ranking should help when prioritizing targets pre-draft and understanding the next best outcomes when targeted players go off the board ahead of you. Any and all feedback welcome!
Note: Industry ADP tends to lag behind actual drafts, so don't feel wedded to the ADP or estimation when a particular one is worth drafting. Your league might see these players go off of the board earlier and require earlier picks, but he relative order of the attractiveness of drafting at ADP (whatever that adjusts to in your league) should be relatively accurate.
|ADP||Should be taken in|
|21||Todd Gurley||LA||Early 1st||Early 1st|
|22||David Johnson||ARI||Mid 1st||Mid 1st|
|23||Ezekiel Elliott||DAL||Late First||Late First|
|38||Doug Martin||TB||2nd/3rd||Mid 3rd|
|39||LeSean McCoy||BUF||3rd||Late 3rd|
|41||DeVonta Freeman||ATL||2nd||Late 2nd|
|42||Jamaal Charles||KC||2nd||Late 2nd|
|46||Thomas Rawls||SEA||Late 3rd||Late 4th|
|53||Adrian Peterson||MIN||Late First||2nd|
Notes: High ceiling backups (McKinnon, Booker, Michael, Ware, Washington, Morris), receiving backs (Sims, Powell, Spiller, White, Thompson, Draughn, Bernard, Sproles, White), and a few aging starters (Gore, Jennings) lead the way. Lots of early draft picks are "par" picks - that is, they cost about what they should - which should encourage you to take at least one running back early if you believe in them. Touches by default backs (Jones, Langford, LMurray, Hill, Mathews) are generally overrated in my estimation, and the second round looks more like a wide receiver round than a running back round in PPR leagues.