Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
As the fantasy football continues to mushroom in formats and level of participation, the long-time league management leader My Fantasy League has given us the prototype best ball draft game to be the ready fix for those of us that love the draft as much as watching the season play out. There is a roster management option, but the draft-only best ball format allows you the ability to have a draft and not have to add another round of waiver moves, lineup setting, and trade talks to your already bloated regular season fantasy plate.
If you’re new to “best ball”, the idea is simple. Your best scoring players at each position score each week. There are no lineup decisions, no trades, no adds, no drops. This totally changes the lens of evaluating draft stock. Injury risk is more tolerable because your backups can automatically count when your starter is down and out. High weekly ceilings are more valuable than high weekly floors because you have a bench to be your firewall when your boom/bust starters bust. Rankings for best ball leagues will resemble redraft rankings, but with sometimes wide variations.
If you really like drafting when everything is unsettled, try doing one of these drafts before free agency and the draft. I signed up for a handful and surveyed the land to help anyone diving in early this year, and to get a headstart on understanding the 2015 redraft landscape, only to have it destroyed multiple times over the next three months.
BASIC PARAMETERS
LINEUP
- 1 QB
- 2 RB
- 3 WR
- 1 TE
- 1 RB/WR/TE Flex
- 1 D
- Note: Kicker was dropped after being included in 2014
SCORING/ROSTER/RULES OF NOTE
- 20 Roster Spots
- PPR
- 4 pts per pass TD/pt per 20 pass yards
- 10 - (-3) range for Team DEF Points Allowed
- Winner Take All
A Note on my 2014 MFL10s
I played ten of these leagues in 2014, and won three. I published a guide to them. Where it is relevant I’ll reference what I learned in drafting both my winning and losing teams.
A Note on Drafting before free agency and the NFL Draft
In some ways this is going to strongly encourage running to the shelter of known quantities. Early draft also rewards being willing to stick your neck out and get players at a discount because you correctly assess that the risk factor is lower than widely perceived. My four best-performing MFL10 teams last year all had Marshawn Lynch, drafted somewhere in between 1.12 and 2.10 because of the uncertainty about a holdout during June/July. Many more players represent uncertainty at this stage of the offseason. Knowing when to take a stand and when play it safe is one of the most important decisions in early MFL10s, the idea being that you will need to do both in a successful draft. The winner take all format also makes building in upside to dominate in at least one, if not two of RB, WR, and TE is very important.
a note on MFL10 adP
Do not trust the "ADP Rank" default option in the drop-down on the draft page in MFL. It includes dynasty and other draft data that throws off the ADP. Use this link instead.
QB
Optimal Number: 2
Sweet Spots: 8th-13th
Just like last year, there’s not going to be much nuance to your QB draft strategy. Don’t take one early. I suppose if Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers falls to the fifth round, he’s an easy best player available pick, otherwise you are going to want to time your QB picks in the 8th-13th rounds. Make sure you get two guys who are going to start all 16 games unless they get hurt and one with a high weekly ceiling.
8th Round QB Targets - these are the guys with a decent chance of giving you a top 3 score in any given week:
Drew Brees, NO - small decline risk
Cam Newton, CAR - chance for improvement, running ability gives high weekly ceiling
Tom Brady, NE - was elite once Gronk was healthy. **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Russell Wilson, SEA - Offense will start to get more balanced
Peyton Manning, DEN - 99.9% coming back, but decline risk
9th Round QB Targets - Just off the pace 8th round group, but still offering upside/track record
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT - Two massive games throw off his 2014 numbers, but also highlight weekly upside
Matt Ryan, ATL - Consistent scorer, but yet to have that year when everything came together
Tony Romo, DAL - Consistent scorer, but his durability compared to his peers worries me
Philip Rivers, SD - Wore down a bit in 2014, but belonged one tier higher in first half of season. **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
11th Round QB Targets - Offering weekly upside, but with more risk. Not ideal as QB1
Matthew Stafford, DET - Lower volume made his 2014 sort of ordinary
Eli Manning, NYG - Odell Beckham in the house, but he’s still Eli
Teddy Bridgewater, MIN - Game really came on pointing to bigger things
12th-13th Round QB Targets - Adequate QB2, which is really all you need
Ryan Tannehill, MIA - More consistent scorer, but fewer peaks
Jay Cutler, CHI - Coaching staff is betting on him again **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Colin Kaepernick, SF - News that he could run more raises weekly ceiling
Joe Flacco, BAL - Trestman help?
Carson Palmer, ARI - Deserves to go higher if we knew he'd be as good as he was pre-ACL in 2014
Andy Dalton, CIN - Big games vanished under Hue
Alex Smith, KC - Yawn.
14th-15th Round QB Targets - These guys offer more weekly upside than 12th/13th but more risk too. Good 3rd QB if you don’t love your first two.
Nick Foles, PHI - ADP will go up 2-3 rounds once it's clear he's Eagles starter **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Derek Carr, OAK - Uptempo Weekly Upside
Robert Griffin III III, WAS - Injury/demotion risk, but running ability upside
Blake Bortles, JAX - Running ability upside and could gain Justin Blackmon
I don’t think you really want to mess with anyone outside of these 26, including the rookies. Jameis Winston is likely to start early, but it could be a rough year. Marcus Mariota’s running ability has been overstated, and unless he’s in Philadelphia, he’ll be eased in.
Don’t get too cute with your QB picks and wait too long. Runs can happen in the blink of an eye and force you into QBs you really don’t want instead of more attractive RB/WR/TE picks.
RB
Optimal Number: 5-6 (including at least one top seven rookie)
Sweet Spots: 1st-2nd, 4th-5th, 11th-13th
Two of my three winners started RB/RB (Forte/Lynch, Lynch/Foster) and the third had a first-round RB pick. I’ve experimented with a WR/WR start when Dez/DT fell to me in one of this year’s early drafts and the upside of this year’s rookie class and pretty solid RB depth in rounds 3-5 (better than last year at least) does make it doable. Still, I want to get one of my cornerstone RBs in the first or second round in these early drafts. The mid-rounds are much more fruitful than they were last year, and rookie are more attractive bets than the 2014 crop up and down the board.
1st Round RB Targets - Sure things
Le’Veon Bell, PIT - Two-game suspension doesn’t matter when he is so far ahead of the pack. Wish we knew who his backup will be
Matt Forte, CHI - Can set your watch by his production. Seeing him fall to early 2nd. **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Jamaal Charles, KC - Mostly looked like 2013 Charles after slow start
Eddie Lacy, GB - Packers don’t seem willing to ride him into the ground, but RB1 and arrow pointing up.
2nd Round RB Targets - Tremendous upside (RIP) with some risk
Demarco Murray, FA - Wherever he ends up, he’ll be in line for a huge workload. Some might avoid because massive 2014 mileage.
LeSean McCoy, PHI - Better OL health and QB play could equal a bounceback year, but bottom line 2014 numbers (including drop in reception numbers) scary.
Adrian Peterson, MIN - You know he’s a stud, question is just where he’ll play. **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Marshawn Lynch, SEA - You know he’s a stud, question is just if he’ll play. I’d say 95+% right now. Can take Turbin or Michael late to keep entry alive if he retires.
C.J. Anderson, DEN - Could be great value in second as long as he retains lead back role. **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Arian Foster, HOU - You know he’s a stud, questions is how many games he’ll play.
Jeremy Hill, CIN - Subject to more down weeks than true feature backs, but best ball cares more about weekly ceiling and he’s got it.
3rd Round RB Targets - Few choices here because 4th round is almost as good.
Lamar Miller, MIA - Finished strong and Dolphins should give him chance to be closer to feature back.
Carlos Hyde, SF - Seeing him in the fourth a lot, but if you feel certain Gore gone, worth reach.
4th Round RB Targets - Fertile ground with lots of PPR/TD/big play potential
Alfred Morris, WAS - Good enough to be a 1st/2nd round pick, but offense looks meh again
Andre Ellington, ARI - If he’s healthy in 2015, watch out. Seeing some in 5th. **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Joique Bell, DET - In line for lots of PPR and TD opportunity, finished strong
Justin Forsett, BAL - Some uncertainty, but Ravens find a way to keep theirs. Value pick if he stays.
Giovani Bernard, CIN - Weekly big play and PPR upside, but Hill’s emergence will make the ride bumpier.
5th Round RB Targets - More risk, but nice talents
Jonathan Stewart, CAR - Finally hit stride, but injury history troubling **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Isaiah Crowell, CLE - Clearly the best back in Cleveland, but will usage remain uneven? No Shanahan.
Melvin Gordon, ROOKIE - I don’t think he is considerably better than 3-5 other rookie backs, and he is a tier behind Todd Gurley in talent, but could be first back off board and instant opportunity.
I’m not a fan of the running backs generally available in the 6th-10th round and see that as more useful for WR, QB, and TE picks. I would consider Rashad Jennings or Doug Martin if they fall to the 9th/10th and you only have two RB picks under your belt.
11th-13th Round RB Targets - Upside plays and a few old faithfuls
Denard Robinson, JAX - Had breakout before injury and should have every chance to lead Jags in carries. **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Devonta Freeman, ATL - At this point in draft worth a bet as lottery ticket in Shanahan run game.
Fred Jackson, BUF - Energizer bunny of running backs.
Jay Ajayi, ROOKIE - As talented as Gordon and could go as high, but a little more raw.
Tevin Coleman, ROOKIE - Not a fan of long-term upside, but will go high + big play weekly ceiling.
Duke Johnson, ROOKIE - Shady-esque, but like McCoy might not be lead back right away.
Ameer Abdullah, ROOKIE - Similar talent to Johnson, but cheaper. **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Frank Gore, FA - See him as 2015’s Steve Smith, veteran with chip on shoulder on new team. ADP could skyrocket **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Late Round RB Targets - You might see a name above slip through, in addition to these
Theo Riddick, DET - Good “firewall” PPR floor weekly if Bush gone.
David Cobb, ROOKIE - Least impressive talent of top 8 RBs, but workmanlike, will endear himself to new team.
Ray Rice, FA - If he plays, could easily climb to top of depth chart.
Danny Woodhead, SD - Still under contract in San Diego, but Did Branden Oliver poach his role?
Mike Davis, ROOKIE - If 2013 Davis shows up, you’ve got something, if 2014 Davis does, eh.
WR
Optimal Number: 7
Sweet Spots: 3rd, 5th-7th, 9th-11th
You can win an MFL10 taking a wide receiver with one of your first two picks, or taking wide receiver with the majority of your first five picks, but I wouldn’t recommend it. The up and down nature of the weekly scoring at wide receiver along with the ability to find receivers with a reasonable chance of scoring at 4-6 times for your team in the second half of your draft makes it easier to put together a committee of seven (or even six) receivers who can keep you within shouting distance of the teams that spent a lot more at wide receiver. Useful wide receiver starts are the cheapest of the four player positions and they have the most shallow dropoff as the draft goes on. The idea is cobble together a group with some receivers who can break big plays/have big games with some consistent volume receivers to give you a cushion if the big play guys roll snake eyes in a given week.
3rd Round WR Targets - Big weekly upside and upslope of career
Alshon Jeffery, CHI - Should completely surpass Brandon Marshall, massive weekly ceiling
Mike Evans, TB - Seems to be QB proof, TD hog = weekly ceiling
TY Hilton, IND - Another high weekly ceiling, although on long plays more than TDs
Randall Cobb, FA - Likely to stay in GB, but target hog no matter where he is
5th Round WR Targets - Values because of RB run in 4th.
Brandon Marshall, CHI - Seeing him fall this far. Chance he leaves Cutler adds risk
Julian Edelman, NE - High weekly floor with target volume
Keenan Allen, SD - Should look more like second half Allen than first half Allen
DeSean Jackson, WAS - Washington offense is poor, but Jackson still makes big plays **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Brandin Cooks, NO - Combo of big play ability and good target volume
6th Round WR Targets - The round to add ceiling to your weekly score with deep threats
Torrey Smith, BAL - Big play weekly upside. Should be highly targeted wherever he is
Martavis Bryant, PIT - Big play weekly upside and role should only grow **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Michael Floyd, ARI - Came on late, role size uncertain, but talent to be great value pick.
7th Round WR Targets - Wide receiver value persists
Roddy White, ATL - High weekly PPR floor, could be steal if healthy
Kenny Stills, NO - Did well once healthy, should trade off big weeks with Cooks **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Eric Decker, NYJ - Numbers surprisingly decent despite early hamstring, Geno Smith
Brandon LaFell, NE - Had as many big weeks as many WR drafted ahead of him **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
9th-11th Round WR Targets - some reliable bets and fun gambles
Andre Johnson, HOU(?) - Still has game enough to draft here and situation could improve if released
Anquan Boldin, SF- Clear #1 wide receiver even if passing game anemic **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Victor Cruz, NYG - Boom/bust play but Beckham will draw coverage
Michael Crabtree, FA - Boom/bust play but could be signed to be #1
Dorial Green-Beckham, ROOKIE - Boom/bust play but best raw WR talent in draft
Kevin White, ROOKIE - Big play upside, should be first round NFL pick
DeVante Parker, ROOKIE - Big play upside, should first round NFL pick
Late Round WR Targets - Good mix of upside picks and firewall depth
Cody Latimer, DEN - Could pick up a lot of slack if Julius Thomas is gone
Doug Baldwin, SEA - Seahawks de facto #1 receiver **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Rueben Randle, NYG - Came on last two weeks of season, NYG runs lots of 3 wide
Terrance Williams, DAL - Big play upside
Malcom Floyd, SD - Steady producer last year and should have same role in 2015 **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Brian Quick, STL - Started hot but got hurt
Justin Hunter, TEN - Big play upside, but could amount to nothing
Greg Jennings, MIN(?) - Four TDs in last six games, but will he remain in Minnesota? **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Stedman Bailey, STL - Had a few nice games late, could be STL #1 WR
Andrew Hawkins, CLE - Who else is left to get targets in Cleveland?
Marques Colston, NO(?) - If he stays in New Orleans, will merit late round pick
Dwayne Bowe, KC(?) - Better off if Chiefs cut him
Albert Wilson, KC - Some upside, but KC WR usage troubling
Tavon Austin, STL - Scored a few times in 2014, but still waiting for breakout
TE
Optimal Number: 2-3
Sweet Spots: 1st, 9th-14th
Y’all know I love me some Gronk, and if he’s a good option after the sure thing RBs are gone in the first. Maybe even first overall. The rub is that as I’ve been doing more early MFL10s, I’ve been liking a three-headed committee assembled in the 9th-14th which also gives you some flex insurance. Consider this your choice - a Gronk/late pick duo or a three-headed committee you put together after assembling your core
1st Round TE Targets
Rob Gronkowski, NE - What will he do for an encore? It’s gonna be fun to have him on your roster in any format when we find out. Can you unfair advantage at TE.
9th Round TE Targets
Antonio Gates, SD - Weekly upside to match Gronk, no signs of immiment dropoff
10th Round TE Targets
Dwayne Allen, IND - TD frequency and upside to improve
11th Round TE Targets
Jason Witten, DAL - Still chugging along, along duds more frequent
Kyle Rudolph, MIN - Hurt all year, good TD history + Teddy **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Tyler Eifert, CIN - Gresham likely gone, so Eifert in line for good opportunity
Late Round TE Targets
Larry Donnell, NYG - Faded after hot start, but Giants say they still like him a lot
Vernon Davis, SF - Hurt all year, far from as dead as ADP indicates **Best Value Pick based on early ADP**
Heath Miller, PIT - Disappointed a bit in 2014, but Ben still leans on him
Ladarius Green, SD - Waiting for that breakout… still has big play upside
Luke Willson, SEA - Flashed big play upside late in 2014
DEF
Optimal Number: 3
Sweet Spots: 17th-20th round
With no kicker in 2015, we only have one “peripheral” position to worry about. The MFL10 scoring format for defenses makes big weekly scores more frequent and even allows for negative scores, so you definitely want three to avoid poor weeks and have a better shot at big ones.
17th Round DEF Targets (assuming Bills and Texans are gone)
Seattle - Sometimes overlooked because of poor road games in 2014
Philadelphia - TD numbers could come down, but defense likely to improve
St. Louis - Feeding frenzies
Arizona - Full of playmakers and will be healthier this year
New England - Great game scripts, talent on D
Detroit - Defense really came on, but is likely losing Suh
18th Round DEF Targets
Baltimore - Needs secondary help, but good track record
Green Bay - Had a few massive games at Lambeau
Miami - Terrific edge rush and can ambush opponents in humid environs
Minnesota - Got better once Teddy took over
Carolina - Ugly mid-season stretch, but good at beginning/end of season
19th Round DEF Targets
Cleveland - Pettine brought his brand of defense with him
Indianapolis - Two games each vs HOU/JAX/TEN and good game scripts
20th Round DEF Targets
Tampa Bay - Lovie will have defense ready to play
NY Giants - Need to retain JPP, pass rush really came on late
Dallas - Offense gives defense good game scripts
San Diego - Surprisingly had seven 10+ pt games in this format in 2014
Jacksonville - Steadily improving
Atlanta - Hiring of Dan Quinn could improve defense
Draft Plan
The main fork in the road of your draft will be whether you take Gronkowski or a running back in the first round.
1st: Gronk/RB
2nd: RB
3rd: RB/WR
4th: RB
5th: RB/WR
6th: WR
7th: WR
The next seven picks should include two quarterbacks and three tight ends if you haven’t taken Gronk. One tight end if you have.
8th: QB
9th: QB/WR/TE (if no Gronk)
10th: QB/WR/TE (if no Gronk)
11th: Best Player Available
12th: QB/RB/TE
13th: QB/RB/TE
14th: RB/WR/TE
End game probably includes a veteran WR, a rookie RB, and of course, defenses.
15th-16th: RB/WR
17th-18th: Defense/Best RB/WR available
19th-20th: Defense
Links to my early experimental drafts: Gronk in 1st: 1 2 Dez/DT: 3 RB in 1st: 4