As part of the new slate of content at Footballguys this offseason, I’ll be reviewing the year in fantasy football for every one of the 32 NFL franchises to set up the storylines to watch in 2014. Today, we put the Miami Dolphins under the microscope.
DID YOU KNOW?
- The Dolphins started 3-0, including a win at playoff-bound Indianapolis
- The Dolphins beat four of the AFC's six playoff teams, and they did not play the other two (Denver and Kansas City)
- Miami led the league in sacks allowed at 58. The next closest team (Jacksonville) gave up 50.
- Only three teams (Cleveland, Dallas, Atlanta) ran the ball less often than the Dolphins
- The Dolphins were also 29th in total first downs, and no team got fewer first downs via the run than Miami
OVERVIEW
There was a lot of optimism around the Dolphins entering the 2013 season. Their franchise quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, got to add speedster Mike Wallace, receiving tight end Dustin Keller, and possession receiver Brandon Gibson as part of an offseason spending spree that also included a long-term deal for his 2012 #1 receiver, Brian Hartline. Jake Long was not retained in free agency, but the team added old warhorse Tyson Clabo and trusted second-year tackle Jonathan Martin to protect Tannehill's blind side. Lamar Miller seemed ready to add big plays to a running game that had lost Reggie Bush, and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman had the pieces to create one of the best offenses in the league.
The team was unable to have any clarity in their backfield from week-to-week after a summer of a true competition between Miller and disappointing 2011 second-round pick Daniel Thomas. Tannehill and Wallace were plagued by reports of poor chemistry in training camp, and that also carried over into a regular season that saw Wallace open deep a lot more often than Tannehill was able to throw an accurate pass to him behind the defense. Keller went down in the preseason, although that gave way to bright spot Charles Clay in his stead.
The Dolphins scrapped through these difficulties to a 3-0 start, only to run into a brick wall on Monday night at New Orleans in Week 4. The loss touched off a four-game losing streak, that was brought to a halt by a stirring Thursday night victory over the Bengals. Everything seemed to fall apart the following week, when Martin left the team and starting guard Richie Incognito was suspended in the wake of a bullying scandal. Miami lost to then-winless Tampa on Monday night at the end of that hellish week, but they recovered to win four of their next five. The Dolphins headed into Week 16 needing only to beat one of the AFC East little sisters - Buffalo and the Jets - to make the playoffs. They lost by a combined score of 39-7, as Tannehill and the offense headed into the offseason on their two worst performances of the season. GM Jeff Ireland and Sherman were let go, and rumors later swirled that the team had trouble filling their general manager position because there was a condition that head coach Joe Philbin would have to be kept by the new hire.
Instead of getting over the hump in 2013, the Dolphins appear to be going back to square one.
QUARTERBACK
Tannehill had outperformed expectations as a rookie despite having little in the way of weapons in the passing game. The team rectified that in the offseason, setting him up as one of the more coveted late-round sleepers at quarterback in 2013 fantasy drafts.
Tannehill's production was consistent and good, but not great for most of the season. For every inspired throw he would make, he would a poor decision that resulted in an interception or otherwise miss an opportunity to put points on the board. His top-notch athleticism was not a factor on read option runs until later in the season, which also helped keep him in the middling "adequate QB2" range of fantasy numbers. Tannehill surged with eight passing touchdowns and over 900 total yards in a three-game stretch from Week 13 to Week 15, but the bottom fell out in Week 16, as Tannehill got hit repeatedly and later left the loss to Buffalo. The league-leading 58 sacks Tannehill absorbed plus his inability to throw accurate to Wallace when he would get open downfield left the pass offense with more questions than answers. New offensive coordinator Bill Lazor massaged Peyton Manning-level numbers from Nick Foles in Philadelphia last year, so there's hope for improvement next season.
RUNNING BACK
The fantasy community was incredulous that the Thomas was going to give fantasy darling Lamar Miller a real run for his money in the preseason, and every time a report out of Miami reiterated that the two were close and might share the backfield, Miller's 3rd-4th round ADP did not budge. Miller indeed ended up sharing the backfield with Thomas, eclipsing 20 carries only once, when Thomas was out with an ankle injury. The shared backfield and the Dolphins wavering commitment to the run gave Miller a wildly-varying range of touches from week-to-week, rendering him impossible to count on as even a flex play. Thomas also scored six times to Miller's two, which further discouraged those that drafted Miller as an RB2 from using him during the season.
With the new offensive coordinator, the Dolphins should re-focus on getting the running game going, perhaps even with some of the uptempo elements Lazor was part of in Philadelphia. Whether Miller, Thomas, both, or even neither (giving way to a rookie or free agent) are the centerpiece is a huge question, and one that might not be important for fantasy players to answer if 2014 resembles 2013 in the running game for Miami.
WIDE RECEIVER
Mike Wallace's arrival gave the Dolphins a #1 to contend with, which allowed Brian Hartline more reasonable matchups against #2 corners. Dustin Keller and Brandon Gibson promised to stress the middle of the field, which then would create a no-win proposition for safeties trying to patrol the middle of the field and guard against Wallace getting open deep.
This master plan came together at moments, but never for long. Tannehill's inability to dial in his deep ball left Wallace frustrated and frustrating for fantasy owners riding a rollercoaster with just as many downs as ups. Hartline was more consistent, and his numbers were a near mirror image of 2012, when he was the primary option in the downfield passing game, except with a few more touchdowns. Slot receivers Gibson and Rishard Matthews (who replaced Gibson after he suffered a season-ending knee injury) actually combined for over 70 catches and provided some chain-moving reliability when the matchups favored them.
TIGHT END
Dustin Keller was signed to a one-year deal, but that year was over before it began when DJ Swearinger destroyed Keller's knee in the preseason. H-back/fullback/tight end 'tweener Charles Clay was forced into action as the starting tight end, and he was surprisingly effective. Clay finished in the top ten in receptions, yards, and touchdowns among tight ends, and even added a rushing touchdown. He had four or more catches in 75% of the games, and posted touchdowns in two of the four games that he didn't catch at least four balls. In a year filled with disappointments for the Dolphins on offense, Clay was one of the few bright spots.
offseason to-do list
- Hope that Lazor can work the magic he did on Nick Foles on Tannehill, starting with deep ball accuracy
- Rebuild the running game and possibly add another running back
- Rebuild the left side of the offensive line and seek to upgrade from an aging Clabo at right tackle
- Try to sign Charles Clay to long-term extension before he hits free agency in 2015
on the way up
- Ryan Tannehill (with some personal improvement on deep balls and OL/running game upgrade )
- Mike Wallace (with improved deep accuracy from Tannehill)
- Lamar Miller (with the installation of a running game that will highlight his strengths)
on the way down
- Daniel Thomas
- Lamar Miller (with a move in a different direction by the new regime)