2016 will go down as one of the most memorable drafts of all time, but the 2016 dynasty rookie draft crop will go down as one of the worst of all time. Except for 1.1, which might yield an instant elite option at a scarce position, the value is down significantly through the second round. Unless unexpected players falls in your draft, the value of a 2016 other than 1.1 is down 25-50% from previous years. Keep this in mind if you get offers when you are on the clock, especially if you don’t advertise that you are dealing the pick. Getting veterans or underperforming youngsters should be easy even if people are already clutching their 2017 first round picks like they are stock in Google. I got Jeremy Maclin and Torrey Smith for 2.1, 2.6, 3.1, and 3.7 in a 12 team PPR league. After the top six picks, feel free to trade down at will unless you have a pet player still on the board.
Remember this is supposed to be fun, and taking the players you like with hopes of them outperforming expectations keeps us coming back every year. I don’t want to be a nattering nabob of negativism. Enjoy the process of going to Draft Breakdown (http://www.draftbreakdown.com) and watching cutups to make a final call in the spirit of a war room adding a new member to a small and close-knit family. Let the rush of the draft continue through your rookie drafts. After all, it’s still four months until football even though it didn’t feel like it last week.
The Bloom 100 is ranked with the following type of dynasty fantasy football league in mind:
* Full IDP lineups including DT and CB
* PPR, start 3 WR
* Deep lineups and rosters
Of course, depending on your league scoring and settings, the placement of some positions can change, but the tier breaks and rankings within position should be good to use across all league formats.
(Pre-Draft Ranking in Parenthesis)
1(1). Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL - Cha-ching! Be willing to overpay for this pick. I would value Elliott just below Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell in both redraft and dynasty.
2(2). Laquon Treadwell, WR, MIN - Treadwell landed in a terrific spot. Norv Turner knows to feed a #1. I don’t hesitate to slot him #2 and traded Corey Coleman for him straight up this morning.
3(4). Corey Coleman, WR, CLE - Coleman’s ceiling isn’t far below Treadwell’s, if it is at all. Cleveland’s quarterback situation is more dire, although at least Hue Jackson is an offensive-minded coach. If you’re excited enough about Coleman to take him #2, I won’t talk you out of it.
4(3). Josh Doctson, WR, WAS - Doctson’s talent is on Coleman’s level, but he doesn’t have as clear a path to role where he monopolizes targets. The quality of the pass offense and age of the starting wide receivers will allow us to see just how good Doctson can be early on.
5(5). Sterling Shepard, WR, NYG - Odell Beckham will cap Shepard’s ceiling while still greatly raising his floor. Shepard as a talent isn’t far off of the top four, and his situation is fine. Shepard landing with the Giants created sigh of relief if you own 1.5.
6(6). Michael Thomas, WR, NO - Thomas has latent upside coming out of a remedial pass offense. Now he’s in one of the highest volume pass offenses in the league. He should pass Brandon Coleman by the end of the year and hurts Willie Snead and Coby Fleener long term.
**At this point in a rookie draft, I would be working the trade desk phones. Firsts still have a psychological premium because of the label, and some might think, the more darts the better. Even if 2017 picks can’t be acquired, veterans and underperforming youngsters still present good targets.**
7(7). Leonte Carroo, WR, MIA - I still think Carroo can be a good #2, but in this offense with Jarvis Landry, that really means the targets of a #3. If DeVante Parker busts, we might be in business, but Carroo’s ceiling is still relatively low for 1.7.
8(11). Devontae Booker, RB, DEN - The Broncos had Booker #2 on their board at running back, and C.J. Anderson still hasn’t put a whole season together. It’s not hard to imagine the team seeing Booker above Anderson if the rookie stays off of the injury report (which is not a given) and the veteran doesn’t. The situation is also fantastic on a winning, defensive-driven team.
9(10). Kenneth Dixon, RB, BAL - Dixon has a pretty clear path to being a lead back with Justin Forsett on his last leg and neither of the Ravens fourth-round backs from the last two years turning heads. Think Fred Jackson. Not a terrible consolation for a late first.
10(9). Malcolm Mitchell, WR, NE - Mitchell lands in a great pass offense with an aging, but great quarterback and lots of opportunity on the outside. I’m a little spooked about talk that some teams liked him more as a corner and the Patriots might see that as a fall back plan. Not a terrible consolation for a late first.
11(8). Myles Jack, LB, JAX - So his career might be shortened. He could be an LB2 right away in IDP leagues, with LB1 upside.
12(22). Darron Lee, LB, NYJ - Game isn’t perfect, but long-term opportunity and role just about are.
13(12). Derrick Henry, RB, TEN - The Titans are trying to build a team that could make the most of Henry’s talents. I’m not sure they’ll be successful, but he’ll overtake DeMarco Murray in 2017 in any event.
14(43). Jaylon Smith, LB, DAL - Smith can be an elite IDP. The risk is high, but the doctor that performed the surgery signed off on Smith being drafted. This class is so weak that I would throw an early second at Smith as long as LB’s score well in your system.
15(26) C.J. Prosise, RB, SEA - Prosise landed in a great situation, although he has Thomas Rawls ahead of him. Still, the team will get him on the field right away, and if he can start to harness his natural physical ability, he could take off.
16(18). Will Fuller, WR, HOU - I’m still not a fan, but the opportunity for a first-round wide receiver is undeniable, even if he does project as a feast-or-famine receiver week-to-week - even if he hits.
17(19). Mike Thomas, WR, LA - We knew Thomas wouldn’t get respect in the draft. He landed in a place with an improved quarterback situation and no reigning #1 receiver. He might lead this team in targets in 2-3 years.
18(27). Karl Joseph, S, OAK - I have a soft spot for taking players that I’d want on my real team. Joseph went mid-first despite a torn ACL in April. He can be a reincarnation of Bob Sanders, but hopefully healthier.
19(23) Joey Bosa, DE, SD - Bosa is an odd fit in San Diego’s 3-4, but the more I thought about it, the more I thought Bosa might be even more productive as an interior rusher than an edge rusher. He also will be active enough to still provide a strong run support base to his stats.
20(14). Hunter Henry, TE, SD - Henry is not Antonio Gates by any stretch, and he won’t pass Gates as long as the veteran is still on the roster. Henry’s ceiling is low and he’s just not that compelling, even after a weak skill player class landed in bad spots.
21(15). Jonathan Williams, RB, BUF - Williams is still one of the few RBs in this class than can project as a three-down back, but his path is blocked by Karlos Williams and LeSean McCoy. Williams could make some noise in a year or two.
22(38). Keith Marshall, RB, WAS - Marshall was a late pick, but he might be the most talented running back on the Washington roster, and he will have a chance to play his way into a role, potentially a large role.
23(50). DeAndre Washington, RB, OAK - This is a significant leap for Washington, but the Raiders are not settled on their running back situation, and Washington has a high ceiling if he can get his game under control. I’ll be adding him a lot in the third and fourth round of drafts.
24(13). Tyler Higbee, TE, LA - Higbee still went in the early third day despite criminal charges hanging over his head, so the Rams like him. They also added Temmarick Hemingway, who is a good receiving tight end in his own right. Higbee is a boom/bust prospect, but I’m not sure how big the boom will be.
25(17). Charone Peake, WR, NYJ - Peake is a long term project, but the Jets pass offense can remain robust by the time he is coming into his own if they can find a quarterback.
26(16). Rashard Higgins, WR, CLE
27(20). Keyarris Garrett, WR, CAR
28(30). Keanu Neal, S, ATL
29(33). Paul Perkins, RB, NYG
30(44). Jordan Howard, RB, CHI
31(42). Kenyan Drake, RB, MIA
32(21). Jared Goff, QB, LA
33(24). Carson Wentz, QB, PHI
34(25). Paxton Lynch, QB, DEN
35(41). Cardale Jones, QB, BUF
36(34). Daniel Lasco, RB, NO
37(35). Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN
38(37). Demarcus Robinson, WR, KC
39(32). Su’a Cravens, LB, WAS
40(51). Tyler Ervin, RB, HOU
41(29). Reggie Ragland, LB, BUF
42(28). DeForest Buckner, DE, SF
43(31). Alex Collins, RB, SEA
44(59). Noah Spence, DE, TB
45(52). Kentrell Brothers, LB, MIN
46(55). Moritz Boehringer, WR, MIN
47(57). Ricardo Louis, WR, CLE
48(87). Josh Ferguson, RB, IND
49(85). Wendell Smallwood, RB, PHI
50(62). Austin Hooper, TE, ATL
51(49). Deion Jones, LB, ATL
52(39). Scooby Wright, LB, CLE
53(40). Thomas Duarte, TE, MIA
54(45). Jalen Ramsey, CB, JAX
55(63), Sheldon Rankins, DT, NO
56(72). Vernon Hargreaves, CB, TB
57(36). Daniel Braverman, WR, CHI
58(46). Braxton Miller, WR, HOU
59(70). Devin Lucien, WR, NE
60(53). Dwayne Washiington, RB, DET
61(97). Marshaun Coprich, RB, NYG
62(94). Antonio Morrison, LB, IND
63(47). Stephen Anderson, TE, HOU
64(UR). Jalen Richard, RB, OAK
65(48). Leonard Floyd, LB, CHI
66(83). Darian Thompson, S, NYG
67(UR). Sean Davis, S, PIT
68(84). Rico Gathers, TE, DAL
69(69). Marquez North, WR, LA
70(77). Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
71(65). Canaan Severin, WR, PIT
72(68). Shaq Lawson, LB, BUF
73(UR). B.J. Goodson, LB, NYG
74(UR). De’Vondre Campbell, LB, ATL
75(82). Emmanuel Ogbah, EDGE, CLE
76(76). Jatavis Brown, LB, SD
77(60). Miles Killebrew, S, DET
78(UR). Cody Core, WR, CIN
79(UR). Zach Vigil, LB, CIN
80(UR). Seth Devalve, TE, CLE
81(99). Devon Johnson, RB, CAR
82(UR). Temarrick Hemingway, TE, LA
83(54). Peyton Barber, RB, TB
84(80). Christian Hackenberg, QB, NYJ
85(56). Mitch Mathews, WR, KC
86(89). Jeremy Cash, S, CAR
87(UR). Trevor Davis, WR, GB
88(59). Tajae Sharpe, WR, TEN
89(61). Pharoh Cooper, WR, LA
90(64). Kolby Listenbee, WR, BUF
91(66). Jay Lee, WR, DET
92(UR). Roger Lewis, WR, NYG
93(UR). Darius Jackson, RB, DAL
94(71). Kevin Dodd, LB, TEN
95(67). Kyler Fackrell, LB, GB
96(73). Kenny Lawler, WR, SEA
97(75). Jordan Payton, WR, CLE
98(88). Nick Vannett, TE, SEA
99(76). Jerell Adams, TE, NYG
100(UR). Cody Kessler, QB, CLE