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When Bill Belichick announced on Monday that Rob Gronkowski would not be placed on the preseason PUP list, the talk of Gronkowski's draft value heated up in the fantasy community.
The Footballguys staff debated where he should be drafted via email, forums, and Twitter. The discussions offered a diverse range of opinions infused with tight end draft strategy and predictions of how the ADP of Gronkowski, his teammates, and all tight ends would change.
Here is an edited version of multiple threads interwoven into a single conversation among Footballguys staffers. Dr. Jene Bramel sets the stage with an excerpt from his PUPdates column.
Jene Bramel: By allowing Gronkowski to take even one repetition in practice, the Patriots severely limited their options. If Gronkowski has any minor setbacks or doesn't look ready over the next month after all, New England's only choices are to put Gronkowski on the injured reserve list with a designation to return or carry him on the active 53-man roster and deactivate him on game days.
This decision tells us two very important things. First, Gronkowski is already in good enough physical condition to practice in pads. If he weren't, he'd likely have been put on the Active/NFI list while he conditioned and rehabbed on the sideline. Second, this decision says the medical staff believes Gronkowski will be ready for Week 1. And when you compare this year's quiet, business-like report to last year's weekly circus, it's fair to say Gronkowski believes it too.
This doesn't mean that Gronkowski is a lock to be in top form during camp or early in the regular season, but full clearance for contact just six months after an ACL/MCL tear is impressive and reassuring.
Austin Lee: Before this news, Gronkowski's ADP was in the low 30s, and our consensus rankings had him in the mid 20s. When would you draft him in a non-PPR, 12-team, redraft league now?
When would you draft Rob Gronkowski?
Mark Wimer: If Gronkowski's rehabilitation goes as well as it did for Adrian Peterson two seasons ago, Gronkowski would represent tremendous value as a third-round pick. However, if his return resembles last year's rehabilitation and play of Robert Griffin III III, then Gronkowski is likely a bust as a third-round pick. This is a classic risk/reward situation that will be impacted by each owner's risk tolerance.
Adam Harstad: I have a reputation as a fantasy football ambulance-chaser. I place a lot of faith in the fact that modern medicine is always advancing. Last year's impossibilities are next year's norms. I had Gronkowski 14th in my PPR rankings well before this week's news, and even through all of his injuries, he's enjoyed an uninterrupted reign as the number one tight end in my dynasty rankings.
Phil Alexander: Fantasy football is supposed to be fun, and it doesn't get more fun than having Rob Gronkowski on your team. Gronk is a scoring machine, catching a touchdown on an ungodly 18.5% of his career receptions and 50% of his red zone targets. In standard scoring last season, he was 3.1 PPG better than Jimmy Graham, whose current ADP sits at number seven overall.
Dan Hindery: Gronkowski has been a consistent force when healthy, averaging 12-14 PPG over the past three seasons. While that number is a bit lower than elite running backs, it's important to keep in mind that tight ends score fewer overall points than running backs.
Over the past few years, the average starting tight end has put up 7-8 PPG, while the average starting running back has averaged 9-10 PPG. With Gronkowski in your lineup, your average, weekly advantage over your opponent will be 5-6 points. That point boost makes him a clear top-10 player if you could guarantee his health for 16 games.
Phil Alexander: These dominant stats would seem to point toward drafting Gronkowski in the first round, but I'm nervous about spending a second rounder on him. We've never seen an unproductive Rob Gronkowski on the field before, but we've also never seen him play eight months removed from shredding his knee.
Austin Lee: The number that scares me is 8.5. That's the average number of games Rob Gronkowski has played during weeks 1-16 over the past two seasons. Worse yet, he only has two catches for 32 yards during the past two rounds of fantasy playoffs (weeks 14-16). How high can you draft a player who misses half the fantasy season and is AWOL during the playoffs?
Kyle Wachtel: Over the past three seasons, Gronkowski has averaged 5.4 receptions, 80 receiving yards, and 0.94 receiving touchdowns per game. Those numbers translate to 13.74 fantasy PPG in standard scoring and 19.15 in PPR scoring. Over that same timeframe, Graham has averaged 5.7 receptions, 75 receiving yards, and 0.77 receiving touchdowns per game. Those numbers translate to 12.01 standard PPG and 17.76 PPR PPG. At those averages Gronkowski would only need to play 14 standard games or 15 PPR games to match a full, 16-game season from Graham.
Adam Harstad: Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles had seemingly miraculous recoveries from late-season ACL tears. However, there are even more examples of players, such as Rashard Mendenhall, Robert Griffin III III, and Wes Welker, who also managed to return to the field in an abbreviated timeframe after a similar injury but played at a far lower level than they had previously.
Phil Alexander: While they're nowhere near athletic comps, Heath Miller—a player roughly Gronk's size—struggled to regain his form last season after missing nine months with a torn ACL. It wasn't until last month (18 months post-operation) that teammate Ben Roethlisberger remarked that Miller looked back to his old self.
Chad Parsons: The injury cloud surrounding Gronkowski is much lighter in 2014 with a more straight-forward ACL injury, and he has already surpassed the PUP-list label. Last year his status was muddied by multiple, atypical recoveries.
Dan Hindery: Gronkowski ended his season on injured reserve each of the past three years. If you go back to his senior year at Arizona, which he missed due to a back injury, he's suffered significant injuries in four of the past five seasons.
Phil Alexander: I'm not discounting the possibility that Gronkowski's superior genetics will put him on the Adrian Peterson recovery time table, but with four forearm surgeries and two back surgeries also on his resume, a setback with the knee is just one of many things that can go wrong if Gronkowski takes a bad hit again.
Sigmund Bloom: It's funny that we debate Gronk's injury risk, but Julius Thomas basically lost two years from one ankle injury and missed two games last year.
Kyle Wachtel: Gronkowski's injury history has drawn a lot of attention, but Graham has not been injury-free himself. All of the following have popped up on the Saints' injury report since he broke into the NFL in 2010: ankle, ankle, back, head, ankle, wrist, finger, leg, foot, and elbow. If someone were to offer games-played odds of +2 for Gronkowski over Graham, I would take that in a second.
Austin Lee: Let's say Gronkowski only misses three games this year—a big improvement—and his past injuries don't prevent him from returning to a high per-game level of production—not a given. That still only puts him at the top of the third round according to my projections and VBD calculations. I'd rather take Jordan Cameron in the forth round—a round ahead of his ADP—than risk my second-rounder on Gronk.
Adam Harstad: I'm not worried about how many games he will play. My concern is entirely about whether Gronk will be his Gronk self so soon after a significant injury. When Gronk is his Gronk self, he can put up numbers in 12-14 games that puts to shame what other tight ends accomplish in 16.
Just because he's likely to play in Week 1 doesn't guarantee that he'll be himself in Week 1. I'd much rather have him playing 75% of the games at 100% of peak capacity than have him playing 100% of the games at 75% of peak capacity. If he's lost the competitive advantage that made him a fantasy difference-maker, then he's lost the thing that made him worth such a high pick in the first place.
Mark Wimer: I value Gronkowski outside of the first two rounds of a typical 12-team draft. The upside he represents outweighs the uncertainty about the rehabilitation of his ACL/MCL injuries sometime in the third round. Hopefully he'll appear in a game situation during preseason so that we'll have a better read on how fully the knee is rehabilitated and how much he trusts his ability to cut and drive.
Ari Ingel: I probably wouldn't draft him until the third round of a PPR league. In standard scoring I would seriously consider him in the second half of the second round, especially if I was drafting within two or three slots of the turn. I wouldn't take him with picks 13-20, but he'd be on my radar right after that.
Kyle Wachtel: You may be missing the boat if you wait until the mid-second round for him.
Cian Fahey: I was already taking him at the top of the second, but I'm generally a swing-for-the-fences drafter either way.
Phil Alexander: I tend to invite more risk than most on my teams, but Gronk's injury risk makes him a dicey pick in the second round. I'm passing at that price, and if I miss out on all the fun, so be it.
Ari Ingel: If I pass on Gronk in the second round, I'll definitely have an uneasy feeling when he's taken off the board by someone else. His clearance this early might cause a slight bump up in ADP for Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron. People are going to jump a little earlier for those guys after Gronk is gone.
Adam Harstad: Some drafters have passed on tight end late in the second round because both Gronk and Julius Thomas were still on the board, and they were confident one of the two would make it back. If Gronk starts going early in the second, people will feel less certain and might reach on Thomas rather than waiting until the third round.
Justin Bonnema: The opportunity cost of taking a tight end in the second round is not something I can support, but more quarterbacks and tight ends going early means there will be more talent going later. It also probably waters down the Patriots' backfield even more since Gronk is a touchdown machine. Brady's ADP will likely see a bump.
Dan Hindery: Dominant play combined with injury risk makes Gronkowski a true wild card in the early rounds of the draft. The smart play is to let another owner take him in the first round. Instead, focus on the top 6-8 running backs, Jimmy Graham, and the top 3-5 wide receivers. However, if Rob Gronkowski slips to the second round, he becomes a strong draft option. I would take him 14th behind Graham, seven running backs, and five wide receivers.
Austin Lee: If you want Gronk, you definitely can't wait until the third round. You may not even be able to wait until the second round if you have a couple of gamblers in your league.
Chad Parsons: After the top running backs are off the board, Gronkowski falls into that next group of draft targets. I wouldn't bat an eye if he were drafted in the second half of the first round. Selecting him after the top-15-or-so picks is such a value that the power rankings of the league standings are tilted immediately.
Adam Harstad: I was already optimistic about Rob Gronkowski, and I'm slightly more optimistic about him today. I'm inclined to move him up from 14th overall to somewhere in the 10-12 range.
Chad Parsons: There's a strong argument to take Gronkowski before Jimmy Graham. Gronkowski has outperformed Graham at a per-game rate throughout their careers, and only a wide receiver or two even enters that conversation. In short, Gronkowski is in the elite tier of all pass-catchers in fantasy.
Adam Harstad: Reports that he'll play in Week 1 are nice, but what I really want to hear are reports that he's back to looking like his usual, dominant self. That's the news that will get me excited enough to move him ahead of Jimmy Graham as the number one tight end in redraft as well as dynasty leagues.
Kyle Wachtel: After the elite running backs and Calvin Johnson are off of the board, Gronkowski enters the conversation as he provides a league-winning weekly advantage at his position. Ultimately, his reward begins to outweigh his risk just inside the top-12 and is a terrific selection for those drafting near the Round 1/2 turn.
What's your take on Rob Gronkowski's fantasy value? Use Sigmund Bloom's list of FBG Staffers to continue the conversation with all of us on Twitter.