I love pancakes. A buddy of mine makes the best syrup on the planet and sells his most famous flavor during a one-time holiday sale. It tastes like liquified carrot cake mixed with egg nog, but he makes the flavors subtle enough that even people without a sweet tooth like it. I have a sweet tooth and don't need subtle, but it's still dang good.
This year I got to his holiday syrup sale late, and he was sold out. Curses! As I walked away disappointed, he called out, “Oh, wait. I do have this.” He pulled out a larger-than-usual, undecorated bottle. “I wasn't planning on selling this because it was from a batch that was too sweet.”
Jackpot! My procrastination turned into patience.
Much like my good syrup fortunes, procrastinating in daily fantasy sports can pay big dividends. To help with your last-minute choices, I've compiled a list of players whose roles could dramatically increase on Sunday. If you're quick on your feet, the last-second news on these players could create extreme value.
To help with cross-site exposure, I list the DFS sites with the best pricing. The averages are a composite of FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay, FantasyAces, and Victiv. The industry leaders, FanDuel and DraftKings, are great, but I find more overlay at smaller sites and enjoy the two-quarterback, two-flex lineups at DraftDay and FantasyAces. I also included Victiv because they have some of the best freerolls and sometimes have unique pricing.
Note: Rankings exclude players from Thursday night's field goal kicking contest in St. Louis.
Kamar Aiken (WR - BAL)
My Rank: WR39
DFS Rank: WR71
Best Prices: Minimum at DraftKings, DraftDay, and Victiv
Injury Watch: Torrey Smith
Game Time: Sunday 1:00 pm EST
Torrey Smith is recovering from a knee injury and didn't practice until getting in a limited session on Friday. He's officially listed as probable for the Ravens' game against Jacksonville on Sunday, but Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun tweeted that Torrey Smith is "more like questionable to doubtful." Smith favored his sprained right knee during Friday's practice, and spoke pessimistically about his chances of suiting up against the Jaguars.
With Torrey Smith out of the picture, Kamar Aiken would see the biggest increase in targets, sliding into the starting role opposite Steve Smith. Aiken has 9 catches, 116 yards, and a touchdown over the past two weeks while playing roughly half of the Ravens' snaps. In anticipation of a snap-count bump, I have Aiken ranked as my 39th receiver, which is significantly higher than his DFS average of WR71.
The elder Smith could also be a decent play against the flailing Jaguars, but I only have him ranked a few spots higher than his average pricing as the 32nd wide receiver. The fact that he missed Friday's practice due to illness isn't concerning, but it raises an eyebrow just a hair.
With Vegas projecting Baltimore to score nearly 30 points in a blowout of the Jaguars, Aiken seems like a solid bet to yield positive returns in cash games. Take advantage of his baseline pricing at DraftKings, DraftDay, and Victiv. The only thing that could potentially cap his upside is if the Ravens' running game has too much success.
Harry Douglas (WR - ATL)
My Rank: WR31
DFS Rank: WR56
Best Prices: DraftDay (WR61) and Victiv (WR72)
Injury Watch: Julio Jones
Game Time: Sunday 1:00 pm EST
Julio Jones didn't practice all week and is listed as questionable on the Falcons' injury report with a hip injury that prevented him from finishing a monster comeback attempt at Lambeau Field on Monday night.
The Falcons have a juicy passing matchup at home on Sunday against a struggling Steelers secondary that has allowed teams to accumulate 11% more passing yards and 74% more passing touchdowns than their averages over the past five games. Unfortunately for Jones' fantasy owners, he's unlikely to take advantage of it. D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweeted on Saturday morning, “He'd be a decoy. Can barely run.”
A Jones absence would ordinarily lead to a big game for Roddy White, but White missed Week 13 with an ankle injury and looked hobbled in the Packers game. White's average pricing is already as the 21st receiver, so there's not much room for value there.
The biggest beneficiary is Harry Douglas, who would start in Jones' absence. Douglas, the Falcons' leading receiver in 2013, had a 116-yard, 12-target game in White's absence two weeks ago. Being the healthiest receiver on the team playing from behind in the game with Vegas' highest projected point total smells like a recipe for success.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR - HOU)
My Rank: WR10
DFS Rank: WR16
Best Prices: FanDuel (WR20)
Injury Watch: Andre Johnson and Vontae Davis
Game Time: Sunday 1:00 pm EST
Andre Johnson is questionable for Sunday's game at Indianapolis but seems unlikely to play since he hasn't completed the league's concussion protocol. This will give DeAndre Hopkins more targets in a high-scoring game where the Texans will likely play from behind.
DeAndre Hopkins would have seen an even bigger boost in value had Vontae Davis been ruled out, but Davis is listed as probable after passing through the concussion protocol. Fortunately for Hopkins' owners, Davis plays almost exclusively on one side of the field, leaving Hopkins to face lesser corners on his most commonly played side of the Texans' formation.
My ranking of Hopkins as this week's WR10 isn't a huge jump over his average price as the 16th receiver, but he's an upside tournament play if Johnson sits this one out.
Jonathan Stewart (RB - CAR)
My Rank: RB14
DFS Rank: RB19
Best Prices: FanDuel (RB19) and FantasyAces (RB25)
Injury Watch: DeAngelo Williams
Game Time: Sunday 1pm EST
DeAngelo Williams is listed as doubtful for Sunday's matchup against Tampa Bay. The Panthers' official Twitter account didn't offer much of a vote of confidence, saying that he “could play in an emergency situation.”
It sounds like Jonathan Stewart will handle the bulk of the carries again after bowling over the Saints for 155 yards and a touchdown last week. The Buccaneers have tightened up their pass defense as of late, but teams are beating them on the ground, rushing for 23% more yards and 50% more touchdowns than they normally would.
You won't find a sneaky-low price on Stewart like you did last week, but all the DFS sites have him priced lower than my RB14 ranking. He's an enticing cash game option at FantasyAces, where he's priced 25th at his position. You could also stack him with the Carolina defense in a tournament at DraftKings, where the Panthers have a dirt-cheap price as the 20th at their position.
Donald Brown (RB - SD)
My Rank: RB31
DFS Rank: RB58
Best Prices: FanDuel (RB80) and DraftKings (Minimum)
Injury Watch: Ryan Mathews
Game Time: Sunday 4:05 pm EST
Ryan Mathews didn't practice all week and is listed as questionable on the Chargers' injury report. According to ESPN's Eric D. Williams, Chargers coach Mike McCoy said of Mathews, “He’ll be fine. He’s played plenty of football in his career, and he knows what to do.”
I'm skeptical. Mathews doesn't have a great track record in the injury department. If he were to miss Sunday's game, Branden Oliver would get the early-down work, and Donald Brown would see a slight uptick in snaps in addition to his usual passing-down duties.
Both Oliver and Brown could be nice plays here, but I like the lower-priced Brown more in PPR scoring in a high-scoring game where San Diego is likely to trail the Broncos. Over the past five games, Denver's stout rush defense has limited opponents to 27% fewer rushing yards and 22% less rushing touchdowns than they ordinarily accumulate. That will force the Chargers to lean on the pass-catching abilities of their backfield, and if you need a reminder that Brown is the Chargers' favorite receiving back, just watch Oliver's teammates shaking their heads on his two failed targets against New England last week.
Because this is a later game, you may have to gamble on Mathews sitting or use DraftKings' late-swap feature to get Brown or Oliver into your lineups, but at least with Brown, you know he'll get a decent amount of work even with Mathews active.
