Quarterback (Cash/GPP)
Russell Wilson (vs Pittsburgh) Price: $$6300
Wilson has what I believe to be the best matchup of the week against a Pittsburgh secondary that has been very generous to opposing quarterbacks. Last week, the Steelers defense made Johnny Manziel look like he was back playing in the Big 12, allowing him to post 372 yards passing with a touchdown, and another touchdown on the ground. Prior to that, Derek Carr threw for 301 yards and four touchdowns, which was the second four touchdown performance allowed by the Steeler defense this year (Tom Brady, 288 yards and four touchdowns). Additionally, the Pittsburgh defense has allowed four different quarterbacks to post 24+ points, one of only three defenses to allow such a feat. Wilson established his ceiling in week 11, throwing for 260 yards and three touchdowns (28 points), while adding 30 yards on the ground on nine carries. Surprisingly, this was only the second time Wilson had thrown for multiple touchdowns all year, however he has managed to put up respectable numbers due to his elite scrambling ability (20+ rushing yards in every game, 30+ rushing yards in seven games). Given his cheap price tag, Wilson remains a great cash game option, but a great matchup also gives him the upside to be a difference maker in GPP’s.
Quarterback (GPP)
Carson Palmer (@San Francisco) Price: $6950
As I mentioned above, Russell Wilson put up his best game of the season against a San Francisco defense that has not been nearly as bad as their offense. Carson Palmer has been one of my go-to quarterbacks in GPP’s this year, as his salary has remained pretty stable while also providing owners with plenty of upside. Palmer has recorded 20+ points in six of ten games, including four consecutive weeks. Over that time, he has thrown 13 touchdowns to only four interceptions, while averaging 332 yards passing. The 49ers defense has been respectable this year, but where they really struggle is against elite passers. Ben Roethlisberger (369 yards, three touchdowns), Joe Flacco (343 yards, two touchdowns) and Eli Manning (441 yards, three touchdowns) all shredded the 49ers secondary, and I would expect nothing less for Palmer in an important division game. There are several advantageous matchups at quarterback this week, but if you are looking to stack your quarterback with a #1 receiver, I would seriously consider Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald. The Palmer/Fitzgerald combination won’t come cheaply, but it won’t prevent you from building a balanced lineup either. Given their stable floor and high upside, I like Palmer and Fitzgerald for both cash games and GPP’s this weekend.
Brian Hoyer (@ New Orleans) Price: $5700
As far as matchups go, it doesn’t get better than having your quarterback face off against the Saints awful secondary. Over the last three weeks, the Saints have allowed Kirk Cousins (324 yards, four touchdowns), Marcus Mariota (371 yards, four touchdowns) and Eli Manning (350 yards, six touchdowns) to throw for 14 touchdowns and no interceptions, while averaging 348 yards passing. Plainly put, the Saints are letting opposing quarterbacks post their best game of the year against them, but it doesn’t stop there. Over the last four weeks, New Orleans is allowing the most points to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends, a terrible defensive hat trick of historical proportion that I don’t think we will see matched any time soon. Of the teams that have destroyed New Orleans over the last month, only the Giants Odell Beckham Jrcan match DeAndre Hopkins skill set at receiver, and Beckham Jr put up eight catches for 130 yards and three touchdowns. Hopkins has beaten up on some of the best cornerbacks in the game, so it is hard to even put a cap on what his numbers could be against a porous Saints secondary. The Hoyer/Hopkins stack will be highly owned, but given the precedent set in past weeks against the Saints defense, I don’t think you can afford NOT to play them. With Hoyer’s extremely generous salary, he is sitting atop my PP$ rankings heading into Sunday and makes for a great base to build your tournament lineups around.
Running Back (Cash)
Thomas Rawls (vs Pittsburgh) Price: $4650
Despite having some early season success, Thomas Rawls went largely unowned last week due to the fact that Marshawn Lynch was not ruled out until an hour or so before game time. For those who were lucky enough to play him, Rawls was thee difference maker in GPP’s, posting 254 total yards and two touchdowns (one rushing, one receiving). It was a dominant performance by Rawls, with the Seahawks closing the game out in the second half by feeding him the ball over and over again. With Lynch set to miss Sunday’s game, Rawls becomes essentially an auto-start at $4650. The only thing standing in his way is a neutral matchup against a stingy Pittsburgh defensive front. The Steelers have allowed only two 100+ yard rushers on the season (Justin Forsett, Charcandrick West), while surrendering only two rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs. There are better matchups to target at running back, however, Seattle has one of the better offensive lines in the league and should have no problem moving the ball. This game could easily turn into a shootout, and with Rawls receiving work between the 20’s, on third down and in the red zone, he has a great chance of hitting a cash game target of roughly 14 points. Playing him in GPP’s is a risker proposition though.
Spencer Ware (vs Buffalo) Price: $4350
In this week’s installment of “The Bomb-Backup”, we feature Spencer Ware. As recently as week 4, Ware could be seen tearing up the practice squad scrimmages, but with injuries to Jamaal Charles and Charcandrick West, and the demotion of fellow understudy Kniles Davis, Ware now finds himself in the enviable position of lead back for Kansas City. If you are a frequent reader of this column, you’ll know the love fest I experienced with both Charles and West, so it is only right that Ware continues that honor. He is not as versatile as the former two lead backs, but he is a decisive runner who has impressive power when running between the tackles, which also makes him very efficient in the red zone. This was on full display last Sunday when in relief of West, he ran the ball eleven times for 96 yards and two touchdowns, while also chipping in one catch for five yards. Ware converted both of his red zone carries for touchdowns, a stat that should serve him very well against a Buffalo defense that let up multiple touchdown games to Lamar Miller and James White. Buffalo has allowed three different running backs to score through the air, which if you are familiar with Andy Reid and the Kansas City offensive scheme, you know how much he likes to use his running backs on pass situations around the goal line. Ware is a wild card, if only because he has yet to prove how he will fare when given the entire load. With that said, his salary is cheap enough that there is very little risk attached to putting him in play in GPP’s. All in all, he makes for an excellent GPP play with an offense that revolves around getting production at the running back position.
Doug Martin (@ Indianapolis) Price: $5000
Martin is coming off his highest rushing total of the year, a 235 yard gashing of the Eagles in which he reminded me of the rookie running back who took the NFL by storm in 2012. This was the second 200 yard rushing game of Martin's career (Week 12, 2012 season, 272 total yards, 4 touchdowns), and the only thing missing was Martin hitting pay dirt, which he nearly did on an 84 yard scamper that set up a Tampa touchdown. This week he gets a Colts rush defense ranked 22nd in the league, allowing (113.4) yards per game and nine rushing touchdowns (T6th worst in the NFL). More specifically, Indy has had trouble stopping the big play, giving up runs of 36 yards (TJ Yeldon), 38 yards (LeGarrette Blount), 44 yards (Mark Ingram) and 40 yards (Devonta Freeman). This fits Martin's skill set very well, as he proved last week he is capable of handling a big workload (27 carries) while still providing game breaking plays (runs of 27, 58 and 84 yards). His lack of total touchdowns (3) is worrying, but considering he’s had games of 22.8, 35.3, 18.6 and 23.5 points this year, he is more than capable of returning GPP value, independent of whether he is able to score along the way. Martin has the ceiling of an elite back, but offers a huge discount over guys like Adrien Peterson, Todd Gurley and Devonta Freeman (all $6150 or higher).
Wide Receiver (Cash/GPP)
DeAndre Hopkins (vs New Orleans) Price: $6500
While discussing the GPP merits of Brian Hoyer, I briefly touched on why DeAndre Hopkins is the overwhelming favorite to lead all wide receivers in points this week. At this point in the season, there is no question as to whether or not Hopkins is a true #1 receiver, nor is there any debate as to whether he can justify such a high salary. His skills were on full display last week when he took Darrelle Revis to the cleaners, scoring on a long touchdown, one of two touchdowns on the day for Hopkins. He has the best matchup of the week, facing off against a New Orleans secondary who’s only chance of stopping him will be to double, triple, or even quadruple team him coverage…and then, and only then, is there even a discussion as to whether or not they can contain him. The Saints have given up multiple touchdown games to TY Hilton, Odell Beckham Jr and Dwayne Harris (Beckham and Harris were in the same game!), while giving up an average of 31 points per game to opposing wide receivers (per team) over the last four weeks. Given the lack of talent surrounding Hopkins, and the fact that Brian Hoyer likes lock in on him, I’ve set Hopkins floor at 24 points this week (8 catches, 140 yards, one touchdown). As I mentioned above, his ownership percentage is likely to be very high, but this is a week where you have to ignore his ownership rate at the expense of his unusually high upside. Hopkins will be a difference maker in GPP’s this week, and it will be very difficult to match his points if you decide to fade him all together.
Wide Receiver (GPP/Cash)
Larry Fitzgerald (vs Cincinnati) Price: $5500
Fitzgerald continues to turn back the clock on his career and reward owners who have the conviction to play him each week. Over the last three weeks, he has averaged nine catches for a little over 100 yards, while also scoring one touchdown during that span. Despite the fact that Michael Floyd and John Brown have excelled as of late, they have also been hampered by injuries, which is something that Fitzgerald has been able to avoid. He is the rock in the Cardinals offense. He and Carson Palmer have a connection that is matched by few quarterback/receiver combos in the league, a fact that was on full display the last two weeks when the Cardinals won both of their primetime games against the Seahawks and Bengals. This week Fitzgerald gets a 49ers secondary that he has had a lot of success against in his career. In their week 3 meeting, Fitzgerald had his best game of the year, recording nine catches for 134 yards and two touchdowns. Now that the rest of his receiver crew is healthy, Fitzgerald will most likely see a dip in his total targets, but the pressure that is taken off of him in that respect should help him make more explosive plays downfield. This is especially true in the red zone, an area where Fitzgerald has excelled in his career. I don’t think he has the ceiling of DeAndre Hopkins, but at $1000 cheaper, he doesn’t have to. He makes for a great GPP play this week, and should be relatively low owned with so much of the field opting for Hopkins, Beckham Jr. or Julio Jones.
Odell Beckham Jr(vs Washington) Price: $6200
With respect to salary, Odell Beckham Jrrepresents the middle point between Fitzgerald and Hopkins…but don’t let the salary fool you, he has the upside to outscore Hopkins if the game script goes his way. Beckham Jr has only played 22 games in his career, but over that time he already has five career multiple touchdown games, and in two of those games he’s scored three touchdowns. His first career three touchdown game came against…you guessed it, this week’s opponent the Washington Redskins. I cannot debate how advantageous Hopkins match up with the Saints is, but if there is a close second this week, it is definitely Beckham Jr. Washington has given up the 4th most passing touchdowns on the year (20 touchdowns to only six interceptions), while allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 64% of their passes. The Redskins have struggled to contain #1 receivers, specifically, Mike Evans (eight catches, 164 yards and a touchdown), Brandon Marshall (seven catches, 111 yards and one touchdown) and Brandin Cooks (five catches, 98 yards and two touchdowns). Beckham Jr. comes into the week with three consecutive 100 yard games, one of them being an eight catch, 130 yard, three touchdown bonanza against the Saints. The sky is the limit for him against a Redskins team that he has punished to the tune of 19 receptions for 222 yards and four touchdowns in only two career meetings. In the section devoted to Hopkins above, I discussed how difficult it would be to fade him, but if that was the route you wanted to take, Beckham Jr has to be the alternative option. His upside is just too high, and is perhaps the only receiver capable of matching Hopkins point for point this week.
Tight End (Cash/GPP)
Gary Barnidge (vs Baltimore) Price: $4900
Barnidge has experienced the ultimate career roller coaster in 2015, going from ashy to classy while being anointed a nickname that is an ode to Rob Gronkowski (Behold, The Great Barnkowski, aka Garkowski). It is hard to argue with that nickname, as Barnidge has been a revelation on a Cleveland team that is usually in the news because its backup quarterback is doing something that he shouldn’t be doing. All Barnidge has done is score touchdowns in six of ten games, including a two touchdown game in week 6 against Denver. His salary has finally caught up to his production, but with Josh McCown now back at the helm he has a great chance to build on his early season success against a Baltimore team that he absolutely torched in week 5 to the tune of eight catches for 139 yards and one touchdown. Baltimore has been burned in the passing game for much of the season, and there is no reason for me to think that doesn’t continue this week for Barnidge and company. The difference in this game will be the Baltimore offense though, which has been decimated by injuries to Joe Flacco, Steve Smith Sr and Justin Forsett. The Cleveland defense should have some success against Matt Schaub, giving the offense better field position and in turn, more chances for Barnidge in the red zone. McCown likes to target Barnidge in one on one coverage near the goal line, making him a great bet for a touchdown this week. At $4900, Barnidge will need to have a solid game to reach GPP value, but all of the pieces are place for him to do just that. Play him with confidence in both cash and GPP’s this week.
