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This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
Top 200 ranking: 4
Weekly ranking: 12
Difference: -8
Romo and the Cowboys are coming off a much-needed bye week and travel to the Meadowlands to meet the red hot New York Giants. The Giants defense has played much better the past few weeks and should offer stiff resistance to the Cowboys pass attack. There are early reports of bad weather in new Jersey this Sunday. The combination of these factors makes us not like Romo's chances for a big outing. If New York can win the game, the Giants will pull into a tie with Dallas (at 5-6), one game behind the Philadelphia Eagles. The pressure will be high for the Cowboys quarterback to have a big outing.
Top 200 ranking: 6
Weekly ranking: 11
Difference: -5
Luck and the Colts meet the Cardinals in a big game for both teams. The Arizona defense has played very well of late and will be geared up to slow down the second-year quarterback. Luck really misses Reggie Wayne. We expect Patrick Peterson to shadow T.Y. Hilton in an attempt to slow down the speedy receiver. This will put more pressure on Luck and his middling other receivers.
Running Back
Top 200 ranking: 3
Weekly ranking: 7
Difference: -4
Peterson is now limited by a groin injury, in addition to his usual obstacles like a poor offensive line and sorry quarterback play. The game at Green Bay is a big contest for the Packers and we expect the defense to be geared up to slow down the venerable All Pro.
Wide Receiver
Top 200 ranking: 8
Weekly ranking: 12
Difference: -4
Hilton has emerged after the injury to Reggie Wayne. He has been able to get open deep with relative ease and quarterback Andrew Luck has delivered. This week's game against the Arizona Cardinals will be a tough one for Hilton. We expect Patrick Peterson to matchup against the very speedy Hilton. Few cornerbacks can stay with Hilton, but Peterson has a chance. The Cardinals defense has played very well of late and will make things difficult for the Colts offense.
Top 200 ranking: 14
Weekly ranking: 23
Difference: -9
Welker is coming off a game against the Carolina Panthers where the star receiver suffered a concussion. The game versus his old team, the New England Patriots, will be a tough one for the superior slot receiver. The Patriots know their former teammate and will have a game plan to neutralize his ability to make clutch receptions in the middle of the field.
Top 200 ranking: 27
Weekly ranking: 35
Difference: -8
Shorts has not received the pass targets he was hoping, and has lashed out at the quarterback (Chad Henne) and the coaching staff. While we like Shorts to see more passes thrown his way this week, the matchup against the reeling Houston Texans will not be an easy one. We are expecting the Texans secondary, one many thought was elite before the season, to hold the lone deep threat for the Jaguars under wraps. This is a game that Houston needs to win just to stop the bleeding. If the defense can defend Sheets well, earning the victory will be easy. Texans coach Gary Kubiak is coaching for his job now, and we expect the team to play better.
Tight End
Top 200 ranking: 9
Weekly ranking: 16
Difference: -7
Clay has seized his opportunity after the Dustin Keller injury. While we really appreciate the skills Clay brings to the table, the matchup against the Carolina Panthers will be a very difficult one. This is a game the Miami offense needs to assert itself against a stout defense, if there is any hope for a playoff run in the Dolphins future.
Top 200 ranking: 8
Weekly ranking: 11
Difference: -3
Reed suffered a concussion last week and may miss the game this week. If he does, Fred Davis will step into the starting role.
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