Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Harstad
Case Keenum - The shine is coming off the strong start for Keenum as an NFL starter. He reacts poorly to pressure and defensive coordinators are catching on by dialing up the heat on a weekly basis. A few weeks ago it was looking like Keenum was the leader in the clubhouse for the starting role in 2014, but now that seems like a less than 50% probability.
Terrelle Pryor - Pryor was not showing much progression as a pocket passer during his time as a starter. Now, Matt McGloin may keep Pryor on the sideline for the time-being. While Pryor could be a Cam Newton-light fantasy option in an ideal world, that is looking more like a pipe dream than distinct possibility at this point. He has even been seen on some dynasty waiver wires in the past couple of weeks.
Holloway
Nick Foles – Foles grabbed the opportunity presented when Michael Vick went down with an injury and he is not letting go. He has thrown 16 TD passes without an interception. Most thought that Vick’s running abilities made him a perfect fit for the Eagles up-tempo offense, but he continued to turn the ball over, which was more of a factor in him losing the job than his injury. Foles now has the controls to what can be a highly prolific offense for years to come, so he is due a significant upgrade.
Colin Kaepernick – Kaepernick slides down a little for several reasons. He plays for the 49ers and they prefer to run the ball and let their defense wear down their opponents. He is averaging only 25 passes per game this year and that is up some from last year. Secondly, his completion percentage has fallen to 56.1%, a drop of over 6% from last year and his amazing 8.3 ypa has fallen back to a still high 7.2. His rushing stats remain high, but even those will likely fall somewhat and his turnovers are up. Last year he threw only 3 interceptions and 10 TDs, but this season he has already thrown 7 interceptions and 11 TDs. He remains among the top twelve, but a little lower than during the summer before this year.
Robert Griffin III III – Griffin also slides down a little based on decreased production during his second campaign, even though it is possible that his recovery from knee surgery could be the major factor. Similar to Kaepernick, Griffin’s completion percentage has fallen to 59.6%, a drop of over 6% from 2012. Griffin’s 20 TDs to 5 interceptions a year ago has turned into 14 and 10. Even his All-America image has taken a hit as he has been seen as less of a leader blaming lack of success on others, including quotes about his receivers failing to get open. Griffin remains top ten, but falls back from the upper echelon.
Cummings
Geno Smith - It's been a roller coaster ride for Smith's value and perception in the past 12-15 months, but it's beginning to look like a long shot that he's the long term answer for the Jets at quarterback. Yes, we've seen plenty of rookie quarterbacks struggle in their first year, but what's going on with Smith right now is much worse than struggles. When you look at all the question marks surrounding the Jets, it would be difficult for any quarterback to develop, especially one that's as far away as Smith is.
Case Keenum - I may have gotten a little carried away in the excitement regarding Keenum, and the Texans may have as well. He's struggled in consecutive games and in my mind he probably faces an uphill battle to hold onto the starting job in 2014. This is a kid that's used to uphill battles so I'm not counting him out, but the odds are definitely not in his favor.
Running Back
Holloway
Zac Stacy – Stacy was not one of the higher ranked rookie running backs, but St. Louis failed to have success until Stacy took over the lion’s share of the running back carries and allowed the Rams to balance their offense. Stacy’s first three games saw him have decent production as he averaged 16 carries for 70 yards. Then in his next three games, he averaged 26 carries for 107 yards. He has not been used a lot in the passing game, but he has caught 75% of his targets and averaged 6.5 ypc. The Rams’ offensive line has really improved this year and Stacy seems to have played well enough to be their top running back even for 2014. He suffered a head injury in this week’s win at Chicago.
Trent Richardson – Richardson is only 23 years old and had an effective rookie season, scoring 12 TDs, catching 51 passes, and having 1,317 yards from scrimmage. Some questioned his skills as he managed only 3.8 ypc rushing the ball. Then Cleveland traded him early this year and his value took another hit. His inability to produce with Indianapolis, averaging only 2.8 ypc and being outplayed by Donald Brown has further decreased his value. It is probably time to acquire Richardson, particularly if you think that his unfamiliarity with the offense is a primary reason for the lack of production.
Darren McFadden – McFadden’s loss of value has everything to do with his inability to stay healthy and on the field. Even in his two most productive seasons with Oakland, 2010 and 2011, he still missed 12 games. Those two seasons though, he totaled 2,432 yards from scrimmage in only 20 games, so if (and granted it’s a huge IF), he could stay healthy he could be productive. He will definitely be a high risk acquisition in the off-season, for both NFL and fantasy owners.
Cummings
Shane Vereen - Vereen has been a target monster in his first three games back and the running back options around him are dwindling. Vereen's skillset and the fumbling problems of those around him have him lined up for the lead role in a two back committee. Of course, this is Bill Belichick we're talking about so it's difficult to get too excited about any running back's long term value. Vereen though, has low RB1 value in PPR league if he can stay healthy and in this role for a full year.
Montee Ball - You only get so many chances when it comes to fumbles and Ball may have used his up. I'd drop him farther if it wasn't for the injury to Knowshon Moreno, but that injury may thrust him back into at least a part of the committee. The problem with fumbles isn't just the turnover itself, but many backs change how they carry the ball and even how they run which can often limit their effectiveness. It will be interesting to watch Ball this week and see if that is the case.
Harstad
Shane Vereen - Stevan Ridley continues to fumble with regularity and Vereen looks like the new version of Aaron Hernandez for the New England offense. Vereen is the movable chess piece all over the formation and his pass-catching skills are among the best running backs in the NFL. While Ridley and the other running backs may have fleeting value for dynasty owners, Vereen looks poised for a string of PPR production.
Toby Gerhart - Gerhart flashed with strong play against Green Bay this week. He was once one of the most sought-after backup running backs as a former second round pick. His dynasty value has sagged over the past couple of seasons, but still just 27 years old when the 2014 season kicks off, Gerhart will be a free agent this offseason. He has the able to be a significant part of a committee at a minimum and can be had for pennies on the dollar compared to that potential upside with a new situation.
Wide Receiver
Cummings
Aaron Dobson - I wanted to drop Dobson farther after his (lack of a) performance on Sunday night against the Broncos. The Patriots seem to have gone with a quantity over quality approach at receiver this year which has made all of them unreliable. I still think Dobson should have the best long term value, but he has a lot of developing to do in terms of how he attacks the ball before that potential can be realized.
Michael Floyd - I expected a couple of explosive performances from Floyd this year, but in the second half he's showing a consistency that is a pleasant surprise. As early as next year he could be the #1 option on Cardinals, which would result in a serious bump in value. No one questioned Floyd's raw potential, and he's finally starting to show enough on the field that we can start to believe he may reach it.
Jarrett Boykin - I may have been a little slow to react to Boykin, but it's just hard to see how he fits in next year when Randall Cobb returns. One thing is for sure, and that is that talent generally fins a place to play. Boykin has shown more talent in 2013 than most thought he had, which will lead to some interesting decisions for the Packers in the offseason.
Harstad
Justin Hunter - Hunter continues to flash his big-play ability on a weekly basis as he is playing over Kenny Britt. The future of the Tennessee wide receiver group is Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter. Hunter is providing the deep ability that Britt once did year ago. As a 22-year-old with a few solid games under his belt as a rookie, Hunter is a fast riser heading into the offseason.
Holloway
Alshon Jeffery – Jeffery’s stock was depressed coming into the NFL last year based on weight issues and concern for his work ethic. In less than two years, he seems to have overcome those issues. He was injured a lot his rookie season, but thus far in 2013, he has been as involved in the Chicago offense as Brandon Marshall. Jeffery has 58 receptions for 860 yards and 3 TDs and also has 13 rushes for 115 yards. Even if he plays second fiddle to Marshall, he can have solid production in the Bears’ offense. His 15.1 ypc average is impressive for someone of his size.
Justin Blackmon – Blackmon was even more productive in his short 2013 season than he was as a rookie. He averaged over 100 yards receiving per game, granted in a short 4-game time frame. Yet, he is already suspended again, his second time in only two seasons. His abilities are not in question, but his history indicates you risk greatly owning him.
Marques Colston – Colston finally got involved for the Saints in the last two games, but has only 569 yards receiving after this week’s action. For the past four consecutive seasons, he has eclipsed 1,000 yards and averaged 1,149 for the past two. He has again struggled with injuries this year, but the Saints also have abundant receiving options, with Jimmy Graham the obvious leader and this season both Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas have been used as often as Colston. The team also has a few young receivers, including rookie Kenny Stills that have taken targets away from Colston.
Tight End
Harstad
Heath Miller - Miller has not looked like his pre-injury self this season as Jerricho Cotchery is surprising as the secondary option in Pittsburgh. If Markus Wheaton develops in 2014, Miller’s opportunity could be squeezed even more. As an older option at the tight end position, Miller will keep sliding down rankings.
Delanie Walker - Walker had middling value when he landed in Tennessee via free agency, but has surprised of late with some TE1-level weeks this season. He has cleaned up his drops and Taylor Thompson has not progressed to the point of being a threat to Walker’s work in the passing game. Walker is a cheap TE2 option that can pose as a TE1 if needed for the rest of 2013 and projected into 2014.
Holloway
Tim Wright – Wright parlayed the Tampa Bay coaching staff’s familiarity with Rutgers into a contract, even though he went undrafted. Now, he is the primary tight end and has developed a nice connection with fellow rookie, quarterback Mike Glennon. Wright started off slowly, but has come on down the stretch and had his best game in the Buccaneers’ win on the road over Detroit, catching 8 passes for 75 yards. He is a little on the smaller side, at 6’4” and weighing only 225.
Joseph Fauria – Fauria is another undrafted free agent rookie tight end that has played very well in his first season. He has excellent size at 6’-8” and 259 pounds and has been very productive in the red zone. He trails only Calvin Johnson for TDs scored for the Lions with 6. Brandon Pettigrew, the 2009 1st round draft pick for the Lions has not overwhelmed in his five years with the team and they may be ready to let him go in free agency during the off-season which could open up a huge opportunity for Fauria. There are not many more prolific passing teams than the Lions and their top tight end has nice upside potential.
Jermicheal Finley – Finley’s downgrade is all about his ill-timed injury. It is always bad to go on IR, but it is worse to go down in an up-coming free agency season. And to top it off, playing an extremely physical position like tight end coming off spinal fusion surgery may leave most teams looking at other options. Despite the downgrade, Finley could be a nice reward, low risk acquisition before the 2014 season.
Cummings
Ladarius Green - Antonio Gates is having a fine season at tight end, but I for one cannot wait to see Green let loose as the TE1 on this team. He's taken a while to develop, but he flashed some speed and athleticism against Kansas City that shows you just how bright his future could be. If Gates decides to stick around for a couple more years this rating may be too high, but if he retires after 2013 it's likely far too low.