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Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Pasquino
Case Keenum / Matt Schaub – Simple up / down discussion here. Keenum has become a fantasy star as the new clear-cut starter for Houston, racking up big fantasy numbers in three consecutive weeks. Matt Schaub never met a Pick 6 that he didn’t like, and he will be looking for a new team in 2014.
Nick Foles / Michael Vick – Philadelphia and Chip Kelly have their new starter, and it is Nick Foles for the short term and the long term as well. While it seemed like Vick would be the better fit for Kelly’s offense, the numbers do not lie that Foles looks and plays the part much better. With the Eagles at a respectable .500 after ten games and Foles lighting up the opposing secondaries, he has QB1 upside most weeks. Vick is in his final contract year and will likely be looking elsewhere next season for a chance to start.
Parsons
Case Keenum - Keenum continues to impress with now three games under his belt as Houston’s starting quarterback. He has more boldness throwing downfield to Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins than Matt Schaub and the Houston running game is no longer the mainstay of the offense. Keenum has yet to throw an interception and has added 49 rushing yards. His schedule down the stretch is an enviable one with no top-12 passing defenses on the docket. Keenum is an underrated starting option for dynasty teams in the second half of the season without an obvious stud at quarterback.
Nick Foles - In addition to Case Keenum, Foles is the other trendy fantasy name emerging at quarterback. While the seven-touchdown performance against an Oakland defense that did not even get off the bus that day was a complete aberration, Foles followed it up with a three-score day in Lambeau. Foles sprinkles in some rushing production and now has 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions on the season. His schedule lines him up for a strong close to the season with just Arizona traveling cross-country to Philadelphia as the one potential pass defense offering resistance. Contenders can consider Foles a top-15 play for the rest of season and a value boon on a roster heading into the offseason.
Cummings
Nick Foles - I thought Foles needed to put together back-to-back performances to convince Chip Kelly, and he's done just that. At this point it's really hard to see how he's not their quarterback for the rest of 2013, and maybe beyond. This offense seems to fit his skillset extremely well. If Foles is the quarterback in Philadelphi to start 2014 even this ranking is probably too low.
Scott Tolzien - (From Unranked to 46) I was pleasantly surprised by Tolzien's arm in relief of Seneca Wallace this week. I don't think Tolzien has what it takes to be a long term starter in the league, but he does look like a capable backup. If he can convince the Packers of that over the next few weeks, he could be the primary backup in a high powered offense.
Running Back
Parsons
Mark Ingram - Ingram has been all but forgotten by dynasty owners as he has been seen on some waiver wires this season. Against Dallas this week, Ingram finally looked healthy as he saw 16 touches, more than all but two games in his career. The Cowboys defense was shredded in the blowout and Ingram was the benefactor in the second half. That said, Ingram prior to this game was nearly free. No dynasty owner had much, if any, value assigned to him. Ingram has dealt with injuries pretty much his entire NFL career through two-and-a-half seasons and had really struggled to see the field in 2013. His 160 total yards were by far a career-high mark and only his fourth time over 75 yards in a game. Ingram has one year left on his rookie contract and his best chance to produce may be on another team in 2014 or 2015.
Danny Woodhead - Woodhead continues to perform at an RB1-level in PPR scoring this season. He is an underrated athlete and has the passing game work and plenty of red zone opportunities available to him in the San Diego offense. He is on pace for a Darren Sproles-like 94 receptions and is averaging more than a half of a touchdown per game. Woodhead has yet to see double-digit carries in a game this season, but five or more targets in seven-of-nine games more than makes up for his situational rushing game work. Since Week one, Woodhead has scored at least 13 PPR points every single game. He looks to be aging well as a 28-year-old back that rarely receives the big hit and whose career-high in touches in a season is 131 back in 2010. Woodhead is a great target for contending teams for anything less than a first round rookie pick.
Cummings
Giovani Bernard - Bernard continues to impress in limited action and showed a lot toughness playing this week with his rib injury. There's little reason to think he won't have a larger role in 2014 and be a borderline RB1 moving forward. Bernard has all the talent in the world, his size and opportunity are the only question marks.
David Wilson - The news coming out this week that Wilson will put himself at risk if chooses to play football again scares me to death. Wilson still plans on trying to come back in 2014, but I have a feeling it won't be in a feature role.
Pasquino
Houston (Arian Foster down, Ben Tate up, Dennis Johnson add and up) – The Texans have been a mess all year, and a lot of that has been because of Matt Schaub – but the run game has not been stellar or consistent either. Now with Arian Foster out for the year, Tate becomes the lead back despite his broken ribs and other aches and pains. Dennis Johnson has looked fast in relief work and is a very capable backup – and has solid upside if (when) Tate gets hurt.
St. Louis (Zac Stacy up, Daryl Richardson down) – Zac Stacy has taken the ball and ran with it – literally – the past month, locking up the feature back role for the Rams. Stacy is a three-down back and offers between the tackle punch plus good hands as a receiver. With it getting harder and harder to find feature tailbacks across the NFL, Stacy has Top 15 upside in the long term, especially if the passing game can get in gear to balance Jeff Fisher’s offense.
Wide Receiver
Cummings
Tavon Austin - We've been waiting for Austin to break out and he finally did. It's curious that it happened with Kellen Clemens and not Sam Bradford. I'd say there's at least a 50/50 shot that Austin has a new quarterback in 2014 and I'm not sure that's a bad thing. He's a boom or bust WR2 in 2014 and beyond.
Pierre Garcon - Garcon should probably be even higher on this list, but I'm still holding his injury history against him. If he makes it through 2013 healthy I'll probably move him up to mid-WR2 or higher. He has plenty of talent and is clearly Robert Griffin III III's favorite target. The only question is whether he can stay healthy.
Pasquino
Jacksonville (Justin Blackmon down (and out?), Cecil Short and Mike Brown up) – Jacksonville is a certifiable train wreck, but a similar description and label can be slapped on Justin Blackmon, who just got himself suspended for the rest of the year. The Jaguars have to play catch-up most of the time and they do not have many weapons, but both Cecil Shorts and Mike Brown offer WR3 with upside type value. Come next year, Jacksonville will have to add more play-makers, but both of these receivers can offer solid value for the long run if the Jaguars ever start to amass a good supporting cast.
T.Y. Hilton – Hilton gets a solid bump up after Reggie Wayne’s unfortunate ACL tear. Hilton scored three touchdowns in a Colts big comeback against Houston, marking Hilton’s coming out party as a legitimate candidate to elevate to a true NFL WR1. Hilton has talented hands, runs routes well and can get deep – everything you could want in a play-making top target.
Keenan Allen – Allen has become the top wide receiver for San Diego, and he has been part of the much improved passing attack behind Philip Rivers. Allen no longer looks like a rookie, as he is a good bet most weeks for around 10 targets and a Top 20 fantasy finish. He should be a WR2 with WR1 upside for years in San Diego.
Marlon Brown – The Ravens need someone else besides Torrey Smith to be a viable option for Joe Flacco, and Brown has stepped up and into that role. Dennis Pitta has been out all year and the loss of Anquan Boldin has meant far more than the Ravens would ever admit, but the growth of Brown as their second wide receiver has helped immensely. He should be in that role for several years to come and will build better and better rapport with Flacco.
Parsons
Aaron Dobson - Kenbrell Thompkins was a healthy scratch in Week nine and Dobson has put together his best two games of his career in back-to-back weeks. Dobson projects as a starting outside receiver and, while he can drop the routine targets at times, he excels making the difficult catches and big plays down the field. It is easy to see a strong finish to his rookie season and the offseason hype surrounding a productive New England receiver propelling Dobson into the top-20 of most dynasty receiver rankings in the coming few months.
Hakeem Nicks - Nicks continues to disappoint despite plenty of targets and advantageous matchups on the schedule. He has faced bottom-12 pass defenses each of the past five games with just one game over 70 yards to show for it. Nicks is still looking for his first touchdown of the season. Counting last season, Nicks has just three touchdowns on his last 91 receptions, a 3.3% touchdown rate. Prior to 2012 Nicks had an above-average 11.9% touchdown rate for his career. More and more Nicks has the look of a declining receiver that, whether he signs with the Giants in the offseason or goes elsewhere, will not rebound to his 2010-11 peak as a top-15 type fantasy option. Considering Nicks’ modest athletic profile coming into the NFL, his string of injuries may be enough to sap his ability to be an above-average receiver going forward. Nicks has been a tough dynasty commodity to sell for a year now with the best chance being a change of scenery this offseason or a strong start in 2014 as an exit point.
Tight End
Pasquino
Jordan Reed – I was a big fan of Reed early on, but I still was underselling his long term value as recently as a month ago. He is a legitimate Top 10 tight end going forward and Robert Griffin III III targets him and Pierre Garcon almost exclusively.
Jermichael Finley – The poor guy just cannot stay healthy. He may very well get back to health next season and for that reason alone (plus his talent and team) I would look to acquire him on the cheap, but you cannot realistically count on Finley for anything going forward – any games he plays at this point would have to be a bonus.
Parsons
Ladarius Green - Green continues to flash with the occasional big play in the shadows of Antonio Gates. He had one impact downfield play against Denver this past week, but another was called back by penalty. Green profiles as one of the more athletic tight ends in the league and comes at a fraction of the dynasty cost compared to a Tyler Eifert or Coby Fleener. Green is rated as the no.10 tight end in receiving tight end according to profootballfocus.com despite playing just 118 snaps on the season. The only other tight end in the top-10 with less than 300 snaps played is Rob Gronkowski. Green excels as a split-out receiver where he is a tough cover for any linebacker or safety in the league given his size-speed combination and it is just a matter of time before he gets a bump in playing time. Green can be had for, at most, a late second round rookie pick and is an ideal TE3 upside stash.
Rob Housler - The window may to closing to get a great deal on Rob Housler in dynasty formats, but there is still plenty of upside to acquiring the third-year tight end at this point. Housler has caught over 70% of his targets this season and scored his first career touchdown this past week against Houston. Despite his career yards-per-reception mark hovering around 10.0 through 75 catches, his athletic profile speaks to much more upside down the field. He still sits as at least the fourth option down the Arizona passing game depth chart, which is part of the reason he has yet to develop into a more fantasy-friendly option. Housler is the exact type of upside stash that can create a windfall of value down the line for dynasty teams.
Cummings
Jordan Reed - (From 10 to 6) It took me a while, but I've totally bought in to Reed as the second best option in the Washington passing game. My question wasn't so much in Reed's ability but Griffin's desire to use him. It's difficult to find very many tight ends you'd rather have long term.
Delanie Walker - When you're talking about tight ends in the 30s, all you're asking for is a glimmer of hope. Walker showed that and more this week and is beginning to look more like an actual NFL tight end. I don't see him ever cracking the ranks of TE1s, but he may become a good backup.
