How to Attack Your Large Small League Draft

Photo: David Butler II, USA Today Sports

Small leagues are a lot of fun.  There is something about the eight or ten team leagues that make them a enjoyable.  The size makes them much different than the standard twelve teamers.  Each team in the league has great players at every position.  Just like with the larger leagues, it is a losing proposition to use standard draft strategies.  An entirely different strategy is required to make the most of the draft.  This article will specifically look at ten team leagues using PPR scoring.  We will examine strategies especially designed for the smaller leagues in order to best attack the draft and get the most from the roster.  This will help you form a new strategy for your small-sized league.

Down to basics, what are the differences I should know about the small leagues? 

1. Since there are no scarcity issues, everything is about the studs.   The whole draft is focused on how to draft enough elite players to win.  It is only through the studs that an owner can gain an edge over his leaguemates.  The top two or three players at each position outscore the rest by tremendous amounts. 
2. Knowing how to best attack the quarterback position is one of the biggest keys to small leagues?  Is it necessary to select a passer early in the draft like in the bigger leagues? 
3. The running back position is one where the drop-off in expected production comes earlier in 2013 than in years gone by.  How can I take advantage of this phenomena?
4. With only fifty wide receivers rostered, on average, how do we gain an edge? 
5. Is there is a valid reason to take a kicker or team defense early? 

How do I best address these questions above?

1. Since we need studs in order to gain advantages, how best do I go about drafting these players?  The top players at every position give their owners a huge edge.  The best way to get these studs is to be proactive in your draft.  When the value stagnates at one position, look for studs at another.  In the  table below, we can see how a top wideout has a similar value to a large group of backs.  So, why not gain an edge at receiver and select a similar rusher next round?  It pays to be proactive and look for talent plateaus and drop-offs.  Look for studs.  A top kicker or defense might be a great pick earlier than you would think, especially if they give you a two or three points per game edge each week. 
2. In smaller (eight or ten teams) leagues which start only one passer, there is no reason to address the position before the seventh round unless you get a stud at an outstanding value.  There will be great fantasy quarterbacks available.  In these smaller leagues, owners want to wait on quarterback (because there are so many good options) which makes the good passers drop further.  So, wait on quarterback and try to find studs at other positions.  Maybe the best strategy is to wait until at least eight quarterbacks are drafted before even looking at the position.  There are twelve or thirteen top quarterbacks.  One strategy is to wait until the first team takes a backup at the position before taking your starter.  This may allow you to wait an extra round. 
3. We will look a little later at how weighted the values are slanted toward the backs.  The ball carriers have a huge VBD value edge – even with PPR scoring - over the other positions so it is best to lock up as many top rushers as possible.   The expected fantasy production for these players at the position has definite tiers.  But, even the lesser fantasy starters are worth more than most all quarterbacks and every tight end not named Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski. 
4. Unless going after super stud (e.g., Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, or Brandon Marshall), it is best to wait on the wide receiver position until ten or fifteen are off the board.  There is very little difference in expected production so you might as well stock up on the position (running back) where you gain an advantage. 
5. There are at least ten good kickers and team defenses so every team can have a good option.  You should employ one of two strategies for the kicker position.  Either take a stud earlier than you would think, or wait until ten are gone.  The stud gives you an extra few points a game so it is a viable strategy.  For the team defense position, it is best to play matchups with a smaller league.  There will be plenty of good options available on the waiver wire each week from which to choose.  Many times, it is better to have a mediocre defense with a great matchup than a good defense with a mediocre matchup. 

When we look at the VBD (Value Based Drafting) application, we quickly realize how valued the running backs are when compared to the other positions.  The VBD accounts for positional scarcity and  available options at other positions using the Footballguys.com projections.  It is amazing that only one quarterback and zero wide receivers were valued in the first rounds.  If we look at just the first two rounds of a ten-team draft (in terms of VBD), not one quarterback or tight end are worth a pick.  This may be a surprise to you, but the reason is that there are several good options at both positions.    More than two-thirds of the first two rounds (20 picks) are ball carriers, even in PPR scoring.  The reason?  There are so few quality fantasy backs.  The league variables used were ten teams, sixteen roster spots, PPR scoring, and starting requirements of 1 Quarterback, 2 Running Backs, 3 Wide Receivers, 1 Tight End, 1 Flex, 1 Kicker, and 1 Team Defense.

The depth at the quarterback and wide receiver positions means that a fantasy owner can afford to wait on those positions while stocking up on rushers. The table below represents the Top 100 players in terms of VBD.  There are a few things that jump out.  As we discussed, the value of studs – especially at the running back position - is immense.  Notice the VBD values for the top players at the position in comparison to the rest of the players, even very good players.  Also, as we progress to the 50th overall player, the wide receivers are close to passing the running backs, and we will see this trend continue.  This is why it is best to draft running backs early and often, even in PPR leagues.  When looking at the VBD spots from player 51 through 100, the wide receivers are dominant, the value at quarterback and tight end is still apparent.  This is why it is ok to wait on the wide receiver position.  As discussed above, having studs is the only way to gain an advantage.  For this reason, an owner who loads up on running backs early on can still get studs at the other positions through the first ten rounds.  This is why the kickers are actually a decent play when the value running back and wideout plateaus.

A few things to remember about smaller leagues: wait on quarterbacks, draft running backs early and often, the receiver position is very deep, and the tight end position is extremely top heavy.

Using these guidelines, you can dominate your draft.

Please feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with any questions or comments.  Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller) so feel free to ask me questions there.