Each week I will take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel. I will examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team, and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I'm attempting to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup but I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide and you will have multiple options which will help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
Drew Brees ($8,700) + Brandin Cooks ($7,600) = $16,300
The Saints take on the Raiders at home in Week 1 and this contest is expected to be the highest scoring game this weekend. The Saints have one of the highest implied totals of the week at 27 points and their defense is porous and will force the offense to continue to put points on the board. The Raiders secondary is going to have a hard time containing Cooks as he can take the top off of the defense in a flash, and Brees is certainly going to take a few shots down the field.
Pivot: The Raiders simply could not cover tight ends in 2015 and that makes a pivot to Saints tight end Coby Fleener ($5,400) a very intriguing option. He is in his first year with the Saints but is in a situation where he could see plenty of volume and his path to GPP value is pretty clear. If you’re looking for a cheaper Saints stack or a possible triple-stack play, Fleener is certainly worth a look.
Andrew Luck ($8,700) + T.Y. Hilton ($6,800) = $15,500
The Colts take the field on Sunday afternoon as they bring the Lions to town, and if there is a shootout this weekend it looks like this game is it. Vegas has the Colts scoring 27 points against Detroit, and this is another game in which the defense’s inability to stop the Lions could force the Colts to continue to aggressively attack via the pass on offense. The point spread is 3.5 points (Indianapolis is favored) so this should be a very close game, meaning a “run out the clock” situation shouldn’t exist as this game will be close.
Pivot: If you're looking for variance, price relief, or a triple-stack, players like wide receiver Donte Moncrief ($6,200) and wide receiver Phillip Dorsett ($5,400) make for very appealing plays. However, I suspect that Moncrief will be heavily owned as his ADP has skyrocketed over the summer months. He comes at a discount in relation to Hilton, but Hilton will face off against Lions cornerback Darius Slay while Moncrief has a juicy matchup with Lions No. 2 cornerback Nevin Lawson.
Russell Wilson ($8,500) + Doug Baldwin ($6,700) = $15,200
The Seahawks face the Dolphins at home Sunday and they’ll be without retired running back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch was the engine of this offense for years, but injuries forced him to miss the final seven games of the 2015 season. With Lynch out, Wilson took the reins and went bananas, throwing for 24 touchdowns and one interception over that seven-game stretch. The Seahawks do have adequate running backs, but the passing attack is going to be leading the show here.
This certainly is a contrarian stack as the spread is set up to favor the running game with the Seahawks favored by 10.5 points. However, I don't see the rushing attack being the same in Seattle without Lynch. The Seattle offensive line is not a strong unit and I think they will struggle to run the ball consistently against the Dolphins front four which opens the door for Wilson to make plays on the move and throwing the ball.
Pivot: If you’re looking to lessen the cost of a Seahawks stack, a move to wide receiver Tyler Lockett ($6,200) could pay dividends while allowing for a little more of your salary to be spent elsewhere. If you're going to pick up a piece of Lockett it might make sense to add the Seahawks defense as Lockett returns kicks and can give your defense a boost while being a weapon on offense as well.
Derek Carr ($7,700) + Amari Cooper ($7,100) = $14,800
The Raiders passing attack is legit and it’s led by Carr and Cooper. They travel to New Orleans in Week 1 and they face a defense that struggled to stop the passing game in 2015. This game should be one of the highest scoring games of the week and the spread is only 1.5 points (New Orleans is favored) and that means that we’ll most likely see a full four quarters of standard offense for both teams. Both offenses are explosive and both teams lean on their passing attack to move the ball. Carr is going to be throwing a lot in this game which gives us a path to GPP value for this stack.
Pivot: The Saints are going to be fully aware of Cooper’s presence this week and this might make for an easier time for wide receiver Michael Crabtree. Crabtree is a fine red zone weapon and his price ($6,100) allows for much-needed flexibility while offering a touch of variance.
Matthew Stafford ($7,400) + Golden Tate ($6,900) = $14,300
The Lions travel to Indianapolis this week and they’ll be without retired superstar Calvin Johnson. Clearly, the offense will be very different. Tate and newcomer Marvin Jones will be playing the 1A and 1B roles now. The Lions are running a no huddle offense that is tailored to Stafford’s strengths which are all about getting the ball out quickly and allowing his weapons to make defenders miss and generate yards after the catch. Tate should see plenty of targets in this matchup as the Colts are dealing with injuries to members of their secondary and he has a chance to have a big day.
Pivot: Wide receiver Marvin Jones and Stafford have quickly developed chemistry throughout training camp and in preseason games and Jones’ price ($5,500) offers savings enough that a pivot from Tate to Jones makes a lot of sense.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
Jameis Winston ($7,500) + Mike Evans ($7,900) = $15,400
Vegas likes this game as one of the higher scoring games of the weekend and history tells us that the Buccaneers are going to have a hard time stopping the Falcons offensive weapons, mainly wide receiver Julio Jones. Tampa Bay has an implied total of 21.5 but it's not difficult to see a script calling for plenty of throwing from the Buccaneers offense as they travel to Atlanta in Week 1. Winston and Evans are likely to be behind and throwing the ball, giving the tandem plenty of opportunity to put together nice numbers this week.
Dak Prescott ($5,000) + Dez Bryant ($8,000) = $13,000
This one is out there a bit, but let me explain. Prescott has shown plenty of poise in the preseason and he has the league’s best offensive line and a fantastic running game to support him. He doesn’t need to go nuts in this game to get to value because of his reduced price, and in this NFC East matchup versus the Giants, he’ll get enough red zone looks that he could be a very valuable play Sunday.
DEFENSIVE STACKS
Arizona Cardinals ($5,000) + David Johnson ($8,800) = $13,800
If you have found value elsewhere and want to pony up the amount needed to roster a strong defensive play with an outstanding running back, then this is your combination. The Cardinals are favored by just under a touchdown at home versus the Patriots who are led by quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. If the Cardinals get up in this game it will be Johnson salting this game away in the fourth quarter.
Minnesota Vikings ($4,600) + Adrian Peterson ($8,200) = $12,800
The Vikings lost starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a torn ACL and have traded for Sam Bradford, but he isn’t fully ready to assume the role and it will be veteran Shaun Hill under center this week. I expect a heavy dose of the running game that features Peterson, and the Vikings defense is as talented a defense as there is in the NFL. They are creative with how they bring pressure and they should generate some turnovers. Ultimately, they should give Peterson a bigger than normal workload Sunday.
Houston Texans ($4,900) + Lamar Miller ($7,600) = $12,500
The Texans bring in the Chicago Bears this week and I see the game script going the way of the Texans, particularly with the amount of pressure the defensive line will bring to bear on Bears quarterback Jay Cutler. Houston has a chance to put up a big defensive number in this game and they should be up in the fourth quarter which will allow for more production for Miller. The Bears offense has a new offensive coordinator and they have not looked good in the preseason, and traveling in Week 1 to take on a tough defense with an implied total of 19 makes the Texans defense look like a strong play.
