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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week.
Staff Member | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Andy Hicks | 9-0 | SEA | NE | GB | CIN | MIN | TEN | KC | DAL | SD | BAL | |||||||
Matt Bitonti | 9-0 | KC | BAL | MIA | CIN | PIT | NE | GB | NYJ | DAL | AZ | |||||||
William Grant | 9-0 | SEA | CAR | MIA | WASH | GB | BUF | DEN | NE | KC | AZ | |||||||
Clayton Gray | 8-1 | SEA | DEN | MIA | CIN | MIN | NE | ATL | NYJ | DAL | BAL | |||||||
Bear Heiser | 8-1 | GB | CAR | SEA | CIN | PIT | BUF | ATL | NYJ | DAL | AZ | |||||||
Mark Wimer | 8-1 | KC | BAL | MIA | MIN | NE | PIT | CIN | NYJ | DAL | AZ | |||||||
Aaron Rudnicki | 8-1 | HOU | CAR | MIA | AZ | GB | BUF | CIN | DEN | KC | AZ | |||||||
Jeff Haseley | 7-2 | KC | SEA | DAL | CIN | MIN | AZ | DEN | NE | GB | BAL | |||||||
Jeff Pasquino | 7-2 | HOU | CAR | MIA | AZ | NE | BUF | CIN | MIN | KC | BAL | |||||||
Ari Ingel | 7-2 | SEA | TEN | AZ | CIN | NE | DET | GB | MIN | SD | BAL | |||||||
Andrew Garda | 7-2 | PHI | BAL | NYG | HOU | OAK | BUF | DEN | MIN | KC | AZ | |||||||
Justin Bonnema | 7-2 | HOU | JAX | MIA | CIN | MIN | BUF | TB | DET | DAL | BAL | |||||||
James Brimacombe | 7-2 | INDY | CAR | MIA | WASH | NE | BUF | CIN | MIN | DAL | AZ | |||||||
Chris Kuczynski | 7-2 | KC | BAL | MIA | DET | PHI | AZ | CIN | OAK | DAL | GB | |||||||
John Mamula | 6-3 | SEA | CAR | MIA | HOU | NE | PIT | CIN | MIN | GB | AZ | |||||||
Alex Miglio | 6-3 | SEA | CAR | MIA | DET | GB | AZ | ATL | MIN | DAL | BAL | |||||||
Justin Howe | 6-3 | BAL | DET | MIA | HOU | PHI | BUF | NE | MIN | KC | AZ | |||||||
Devin Knotts | 6-3 | HOU | DET | MIA | CAR | NE | GB | CIN | NYJ | ATL | BAL | |||||||
Dave Larkin | 5-4 | HOU | CAR | SEA | NE | PIT | GB | BUF | MIN | NO | AZ | |||||||
Jason Wood | 5-4 | HOU | NYJ | TB | AZ | NE | CAR | OAK | MIN | NO | PHI | |||||||
Chris Feery | 5-4 | SEA | OAK | CAR | AZ | NE | PIT | DEN | DAL | KC | NYG |
DISCUSSION
Before I get into the breakdown of this week's picks, I think it is interesting to look at the three staffers that are undefeated so far this year, and the three different paths they have all taken to that 9-0 record. I find it remarkable that none of them ever had a week where all three of them - Andy Hicks, Matt Bitonti and Will Grant - have chosen the same team. In fact, six of the nine weeks they all chose three different teams! Will and Andy both went with Seattle in Week 1 (against Cleveland), but Matt still has the Seahawks to use down the road. Matt and Will used the Dolphins in Week 3 (again, against the Browns) but Andy went with the Packers hosting the Lions. Only Will still has Green Bay left, but Andy still has Miami. All three of them have used the Chiefs and the Patriots, but in three different spots. Both Andy and Matt picked the Bengals - against Miami - in Week 4, but Will still has Cincinnati left at his disposal. Dallas has also been picked twice, by Andy in Week 8 and by Matt in Week 9 (against Cleveland), but Will has not used his favorite team yet. This is going to be really fun to watch unfold in the second half of the year.
As for the rest of the staff, four staff members have just one loss on the year (Clayton Gray, Bear Heiser, Mark Wimer and Aaron Rudnicki), and seven more (too long a list to call out individually) are at 7-2. Only the Packers cost the group two losses last week, bringing the grand total of combined missteps to 42 for our group of 21 staffers. All of the picks are in, and the consensus is pretty clear for Week 10 - either go with the Ravens (against - shockingly - Cleveland at home) or take Arizona hosting the 49ers. Both teams are double digit favorites accoring to Las Vegas and are the clear chalk picks for the week. Only two staffers went in another direction as Chris Kuczynski went with Green Bay at Tennessee while Chris Feery chose the Giants against the Bengals. Let's see how it all plays out.
Late change - Jason Wood had put in Arizona, but he has used them already so he is now picking the Eagles.
Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: Well, the script from my preseason plan had me picking the Jets, but no thanks this week. I went with one of the two top picks (which happened to be secondary choices in my article - not bad for a three month in advance forecast) and settled on the Ravens against Cleveland. Arizona is a solid choice as well, and both are divisional matchups, but I wanted the home team on a short week. Thursday Night Football typically favors the home team, and I love going anti-Cleveland the rest of the way whenever I can.
The Pick: Ravens
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.