Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week.
Staff Member | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Andy Hicks | 6-0 | SEA | NE | GB | CIN | MIN | TEN | KC | ||||||||||
Matt Bitonti | 6-0 | KC | BAL | MIA | CIN | PIT | NE | ATL | ||||||||||
William Grant | 6-0 | SEA | CAR | MIA | WASH | GB | BUF | DEN | ||||||||||
Clayton Gray | 6-0 | SEA | DEN | MIA | CIN | MIN | NE | ATL | ||||||||||
Bear Heiser | 6-0 | GB | CAR | SEA | CIN | PIT | BUF | ATL | ||||||||||
Mark Wimer | 5-1 | KC | BAL | MIA | MIN | NE | PIT | CIN | ||||||||||
John Mamula | 5-1 | SEA | CAR | MIA | HOU | NE | PIT | CIN | ||||||||||
Aaron Rudnicki | 5-1 | HOU | CAR | MIA | AZ | GB | BUF | CIN | ||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | 5-1 | HOU | CAR | MIA | AZ | NE | BUF | CIN | ||||||||||
Alex Miglio | 5-1 | SEA | CAR | MIA | DET | GB | AZ | ATL | ||||||||||
Ari Ingel | 5-1 | SEA | TEN | AZ | CIN | NE | DET | GB | ||||||||||
Andrew Garda | 5-1 | PHI | BAL | NYG | HOU | OAK | BUF | DEN | ||||||||||
Justin Bonnema | 5-1 | HOU | JAX | MIA | CIN | MIN | BUF | TB | ||||||||||
Jeff Haseley | 5-1 | KC | SEA | DAL | CIN | MIN | AZ | DEN | ||||||||||
James Brimacombe | 5-1 | INDY | CAR | MIA | WASH | NE | BUF | CIN | ||||||||||
Dave Larkin | 4-2 | HOU | CAR | SEA | NE | PIT | GB | BUF | ||||||||||
Chris Kuczynski | 4-2 | KC | BAL | MIA | DET | PHI | AZ | CIN | ||||||||||
Justin Howe | 4-2 | BAL | DET | MIA | HOU | PHI | BUF | NE | ||||||||||
Jason Wood | 3-3 | HOU | NYJ | TB | AZ | NE | CAR | OAK | ||||||||||
Devin Knotts | 3-3 | HOU | DET | MIA | CAR | NE | GB | CIN | ||||||||||
Chris Feery | 2-4 | SEA | OAK | CAR | AZ | NE | PIT | DEN |
DISCUSSION
Twenty-one staffers are in the pool this year, and we picked up two more red marks after the Eagles suffered their first loss on the road in Detroit last Sunday. That was the only issue for the group on a relatively easy picking week, but will the same hold true again for Week 6? Let's look at the picks for this week as we have 21 more selections to discuss.
The staff took some heavy damage last week with Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Carolina all losing in Week 6. That added six losses to the standings, and now only five staffers remain undefeated for the season. Just six weeks into the season and over 70% fo the staff have at least one loss, which just goes to show how difficult this contest truly is.
Much like last week's top pick, it comes as no surprise that Cincinnati is at the top of the staff's list for Week 7. The Bengals were selected seven times this week, the most by a longshot for the group. Cincinnati at 2-4 on the season is in a must win situation at home against Cleveland, and the AFC North is wide open after Ben Roethlisberger's knee injury. Cleveland is 0-6 on the year but has been closing in on their first win, so this still is not an easy call. That is probably why we see eight other teams represented in the picks this week, starting with both Atlanta and Denver at four selections each. The Falcons host San Diego in what could be a shootout, while Denver hosts Houston on Monday Night Football in a contest that will mark Brock Osweiler's return to Mile High City for the first time since their Super Bowl parade. All the rest of the picks were unique, one-off selections, including Tampa Bay (at San Francisco), New England (at Pittsburgh), Oakland (at Jacksonville), Kansas City (hosting the Saints), Green Bay (hosting Chicago on Thursday) and Buffalo (at Miami). With so many choices across the NFL week, the standings could once again shuffle quite a bit by this time next week.
Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: I decided to go away from the script of my preseason plan, where I picked Kansas City at home against New Orleans (although it should be pointed out that I did mention the Bengals as a secondary option). That seems like a much riskier pick with Drew Brees having a hot hand of late and Alex Smith not connecting well with his receivers down the field. While I do like Kansas City this week to win, I believe that this is the week to take what I believe is the surer team to win in a must-win game with Cincinnati. Even though it is a divisional contest, Cincinnati is nearly a double-digit favorite at home against the Browns for Sunday, and Terrelle Pryor is not guaranteed to play. The Bengals have to win this game and again next week to get to 4-4 by their bye week to get back in the race for the wide open AFC South.
The Pick: Bengals
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.