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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week.
Staff Member | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Andy Hicks | 5-0 | SEA | NE | GB | CIN | MIN | TEN | |||||||||||
Mark Wimer | 5-0 | KC | BAL | MIA | MIN | NE | PIT | |||||||||||
Matt Bitonti | 5-0 | KC | BAL | MIA | CIN | PIT | NE | |||||||||||
John Mamula | 5-0 | SEA | CAR | MIA | HOU | NE | PIT | |||||||||||
William Grant | 5-0 | SEA | CAR | MIA | WASH | GB | BUF | |||||||||||
Clayton Gray | 5-0 | SEA | DEN | MIA | CIN | MIN | NE | |||||||||||
Bear Heiser | 5-0 | GB | CAR | SEA | CIN | PIT | BUF | |||||||||||
Aaron Rudnicki | 4-1 | HOU | CAR | MIA | AZ | GB | BUF | |||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | 4-1 | HOU | CAR | MIA | AZ | NE | BUF | |||||||||||
Alex Miglio | 4-1 | SEA | CAR | MIA | DET | GB | AZ | |||||||||||
Dave Larkin | 4-1 | HOU | CAR | SEA | NE | PIT | GB | |||||||||||
Ari Ingel | 4-1 | SEA | TEN | AZ | CIN | NE | DET | |||||||||||
Andrew Garda | 4-1 | PHI | BAL | NYG | HOU | OAK | BUF | |||||||||||
Justin Bonnema | 4-1 | HOU | JAX | MIA | CIN | MIN | BUF | |||||||||||
Jeff Haseley | 4-1 | KC | SEA | DAL | CIN | MIN | AZ | |||||||||||
James Brimacombe | 4-1 | INDY | CAR | MIA | WASH | NE | BUF | |||||||||||
Chris Kuczynski | 3-2 | KC | BAL | MIA | DET | PHI | AZ | |||||||||||
Jason Wood | 3-2 | HOU | NYJ | TB | AZ | NE | CAR | |||||||||||
Justin Howe | 3-2 | BAL | DET | MIA | HOU | PHI | BUF | |||||||||||
Devin Knotts | 3-2 | HOU | DET | MIA | CAR | NE | GB | |||||||||||
Chris Feery | 2-3 | SEA | OAK | CAR | AZ | NE | PIT |
DISCUSSION
Twenty-one staffers are in the pool this year, and we picked up two more red marks after the Eagles suffered their first loss on the road in Detroit last Sunday. That was the only issue for the group on a relatively easy picking week, but will the same hold true again for Week 6? Let's look at the picks for this week as we have 21 more selections to discuss.
It comes as no surprise that Buffalo is at the top of the staff's list for Week 6. The Bills were selected eight times this week, the most by a longshot for the group. Buffalo has been on a roll of late and now they head home to host the struggling San Francisco 49ers. As I pointed out in the preseason, this is the perfect storm to pick Buffalo - the first home game in three weeks (and the Bills head out onto the road for Week 7), the 49ers are playing early on the East Coast (10AM for them), and now they are changing their quarterback to Colin Kaepernick. On top of all of that, San Francisco was just run on and all over by David Johnson last Thursday, and LeSean McCoy has been running all over teams all season long. To say it simply - Buffalo should easily win this game, and Las Vegas agrees, putting the Bills as a home favorite by more than a touchdown (between 7.5 and 9 points) and around a -330 to -340 favorite to win (which translates to 76-77% win probability). No shock that the Bills are the top pick.
So what about the rest of the picks? Three staffers each chose Pittsburgh (at Miami) and Arizona (home against the Jets), both touchdown favorites as well this week. This assumes that Ben Roethlisberger's hot passing attack translates well to the road against the Dolphins and that the Jets continue to struggle in passing defense. With the Cardinals getting Carson Palmer back this week, both of these selections also look solid. Green Bay (home against Dallas) and New England (hosting the Bengals) both come in next with two choices. Tom Brady has his first home game after his suspension against Cincinnati here, and the Patriots are favored by more than a touchdown. That theme breaks down with the choice of the Packers, who are favored this week over the Cowboys but by only four points. Three unique picks round out the selections for Week 6 as the Panthers (at New Orleans), Lions (hosting the Rams) and Titans (hosting the Browns) were all chosen once. The Tennessee pick sticks with the theme of picking teams favored by about a touchdown (Titans are right at -7 in most places), but the choice of Detroit at home is an interesting one with a good defensive Rams unit heading into town, along with Todd Gurley who just had his best game of the season. Carolina-New Orleans is also a tricky one as this is a divisional matchup and Drew Brees at home is always a tough matchup. With so many different picks again this week, it could be another active week in the standings once again.
Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: I decided to stick with the script of my preseason plan and select the Buffalo Bills this week. They are a big favorite (7.5 to 9 points) at home against a struggling 49ers team that has to fly to Buffalo for a 10AM Pacific start, and the Bills are going to be up for this game, as will LeSean McCoy facing the head coach that forced him out of Philadelphia. That's right, McCoy - arguably the hottest running back in the NFL - will have even more incentive to run all over the San Francisco defense. David Johnson just torched them for 185 total yards and two scores last Thursday, and 200+ yards and two touchdowns is not out of the realm of possibility. Buffalo looks like a very strong pick this week.
The Pick: Bills
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.