Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week.
Staff Member | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Ari Ingel | 2-0 | SEA | TEN | AZ | ||||||||||||||
Andy Hicks | 2-0 | SEA | NE | GB | ||||||||||||||
Chris Kuczynski | 2-0 | KC | BAL | MIA | ||||||||||||||
Mark Wimer | 2-0 | KC | BAL | MIA | ||||||||||||||
Matt Bitonti | 2-0 | KC | BAL | MIA | ||||||||||||||
Aaron Rudnicki | 2-0 | HOU | CAR | MIA | ||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | 2-0 | HOU | CAR | MIA | ||||||||||||||
Alex Miglio | 2-0 | SEA | CAR | MIA | ||||||||||||||
John Mamula | 2-0 | SEA | CAR | MIA | ||||||||||||||
William Grant | 2-0 | SEA | CAR | MIA | ||||||||||||||
Clayton Gray | 2-0 | SEA | DEN | MIA | ||||||||||||||
Andrew Garda | 2-0 | PHI | BAL | NYG | ||||||||||||||
Bear Heiser | 2-0 | GB | CAR | SEA | ||||||||||||||
Dave Larkin | 2-0 | HOU | CAR | SEA | ||||||||||||||
Jason Wood | 2-0 | HOU | NYJ | TB | ||||||||||||||
Justin Howe | 1-1 | BAL | DET | MIA | ||||||||||||||
Devin Knotts | 1-1 | HOU | DET | MIA | ||||||||||||||
Justin Bonnema | 1-1 | HOU | JAX | MIA | ||||||||||||||
Chris Feery | 1-1 | SEA | OAK | CAR | ||||||||||||||
Jeff Haseley | 1-1 | KC | SEA | DAL | ||||||||||||||
James Brimacombe | 1-1 | INDY | CAR | MIA |
DISCUSSION
Twenty-one staffers are in the pool this year, and we already have some red marks after just two weeks. After a relatively uneventful Week 1, five more losses appear on the standings thanks to Detroit losing by one point at home to the Titans, along with victories from San Diego over Jacksonville, Atlanta over Oakland and Los Angeles returning to action in Southern California with a huge win for the franchise over the division rival Seahawks. That leaves only 15 of the 21 staff members at 2-0 entering Week 3 action. How challenging will it be this week?
This week's picks are in, and it looks rather chalky with 13 of 21 going with Miami, including myself. I can't blame anyone fading Cleveland here, a team that even said themselves last week that Cody Kessler was not ready to start - yet he is starting this Sunday. Yikes. While Miami is 0-2, tough road losses to Seattle and New England are nothing to be ashamed of with a tough schedule. As for Cleveland, well, they lost in Philadelphia in Week 1 then blew a 20-0 lead at home to the Ravens. With Las Vegas calling this game at more than a touchdown for Miami, it makes complete sense to see over half the picks come in for the Dolphins. As for the other eight selections, only one team (Seattle) was chosen more than once (two picks)for Week 3, as some staff chose to go off the Miami script with another big home favorite that needs a win. The same can be said for Green Bay, a team I nearly chose (and favored in my preseason article for Week 3), as they have a home opener against Detroit. Other unique picks include Carolina (hosting Minnesota with no Adrian Peterson), Dallas (hosting the Bears without Jay Cutler), Tampa Bay (without Doug Martin and hosting Los Angeles in the Buccaneers' home opener) and finally Arizona, which is an interesting call this week. The Cardinals are clear favorites over the Bills for Week 3, but this is an early game on the road for Arizona, which could be tough for them. With eight teams chosen, it will once again be interesting to see the standings next week.
Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: I decided to go off the script of my preseason plan and select the Miami Dolphins this week. Miami is hosting a woeful Cleveland team that is on their third starting quarterback in just three games, and Miami is one of the strongest 0-2 teams you will find this season, even with Arian Foster injured. The Dolphins are a 9.5-point home favorite in their home opener for Week 3 and are favored to win over 80% of the time in this contest (Money Line is -500). Green Bay is not setting the world on fire, and the home opener for them this week is against a divisional rival that has scored more points this season than the Packers (thanks in part to playing the Colts in Week 1). I would rather take Miami in this spot knowing I will never use them again and have Green Bay for later in the season.
The Pick: Miami
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.