Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Note that the links above are for 2013 articles. Please see the Week 5 2014 Page at Footballguys.com for the 2014 Week 5 updates.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s pre-season plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week, along with the results and standings so far:
***TABLE 1***
Staffer | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Clayton Gray | 4-0 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | DET | ||||||||||||
Dan Hindery | 4-0 | PHI | DEN | INDY | SD | GB | ||||||||||||
Dave Larkin | 4-0 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | DET | ||||||||||||
James Brimacombe | 4-0 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | GB | ||||||||||||
Aaron Rudnicki | 4-0 | PIT | GB | NE | SD | NO | ||||||||||||
Justin Bonnema | 4-0 | NYJ | WASH | NE | SD | DET | ||||||||||||
Maurile Tremblay | 3-1 | DEN | AZ | NE | PIT | CIN | ||||||||||||
Steve Buzzard | 3-1 | PHI | DEN | NO | PIT | GB | ||||||||||||
William Grant | 3-1 | NYJ | GB | NO | PIT | NO | ||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | 3-1 | PHI | GB | NE | PIT | SD | ||||||||||||
Jeff Haseley | 3-1 | NYJ | DEN | NE | PIT | SD | ||||||||||||
Jason Wood | 3-1 | PIT | HOU | NE | ATL | X | ||||||||||||
Bear Heiser | 3-1 | PHI | NO | NE | SD | PIT | ||||||||||||
Alessandro Miglio | 3-1 | NYJ | TB | NE | SD | NO | ||||||||||||
John Lee | 3-1 | PIT | TB | NE | SD | GB | ||||||||||||
Andy Hicks | 3-1 | CHI | DEN | NO | SD | DET | ||||||||||||
Andrew Garda | 2-2 | PHI | AZ | MIA | PIT | X | ||||||||||||
Matt Bitonti | 2-2 | NYJ | SEA | NE | PIT | PHI | ||||||||||||
Mark Wimer | 2-2 | NYJ | TB | CIN | WASH | GB | ||||||||||||
Phil Alexander | 2-2 | PHI | TB | NE | PIT | DET | ||||||||||||
Steve Holloway | 2-2 | CHI | DEN | CIN | PIT | NO | ||||||||||||
Ari Engel | 2-2 | NE | NO | CIN | SD | SEA |
DISCUSSION
This year we have 22 staffers are in the pool, and if this was really a "one and done" tournament, we would be down to just four people left. I've often played in a "buyback pool", where after one loss you can still continue (for a second entry fee) - and if that was the case here, we would still be at 16 teams (16 of 22, or 73%). So there's no question that upsets rock the boat here, and you really need to just take the best team each week and hope for a quick ending in smaller leagues (about 50 teams or less). In large tournaments or those with buybacks (or even like here, where best record wins), you do need to plan.
Last week I was tripped up by the Steelers, who stumbled (and fumbled) at home against Tampa Bay. I was not alone as nine other staff members went the same route, and took the loss as a result. So what do we learn from this? A change in quarterback can be problematic, and as always, turnovers matter. So if you are looking for a sure thing (and there is no 100% guarantee - I still remember Jacksonville's crazy upset of Pittsburgh many years ago), avoid teams making drastic changes. That goes for quarterback and head coach.
Continuing to look back at Week 4, not only were there nine mistaken picks of Pittsburgh, but two other miscues (Washington, Atlanta) resulted in the staff taking 11 total losses for the week. Ouch. The only winning pick from the group was San Diego, which accounted for the other 50% (11 of 22) selections.
So how does Week 5 look? Well, we have quite the spread of picks here, as seven different teams were chosen at least once. The most popular were Green Bay (home against Minnesota) and Detroit (home against Buffalo) with five picks each, but as I mentioned earlier, both teams could have new starting quarterbacks this week if Bridgewater is out for the Vikings. We already know that Kyle Orton will start for the Bills, and he is 4-0 against the Lions in his career. The next most popular pick was the Saints hosting Tampa Bay, which does look like the best option for the week. Others (like myself) went off of the script with San Diego or Pittsburgh, two popular picks from last week. Finally, two stray picks of Philadelphia and Seattle round out the list of 19 picks in right now. It should make for a lively week.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: I tripped up on my preseason plan in going for Pittsburgh, who I probably should have kept for this week against Jacksonville (by far the best team to fade). Had I taken San Diego or Baltimore (my other two preseason plan options), I would be 4-0 and sailing along, but no such luck. So this week's decision came down to New Orleans (vs. Tampa Bay) or Dallas (vs. Houston) according to that plan. I immediately gave up on Dallas / Houston as the Texans are dangerous and Dallas can blow any expected win at any given time. Normally I would just take the Saints and call it a day, but I am deciding to be a little cute and take the Chargers, deviating from my preseason plan. Why? Well, in this contest, I see that San Diego has been used a lot, and if I take them now less than half of the staff can still use them. I could wait for Week 11 (a good consideration) but I decided to take the hot team against a bad Jets secondary. We shall see if I was right, both here and in Week 11 where I could struggle to find a good matchup.
Steve Buzzard: Last week was a disappointing ending for those of us that went with the Steelers. Hopefully you were in a smaller league and went with the Chargers. Tomlin played not to lose and it cost us. This week we will see a little more diversity in the selections and there are four teams I would give consideration to rated in my preference order.
1) Saints – If you still have the Saints left they are back at home against the weak Bucs and a tough schedule remaining. They are at 1-3 and are desperate for a win at this point. If I have them left, which I don’t for any of my entries, I am rolling them out here in both large and small contests
2) Packers – If you saved the Packers this is their best remaining game on the schedule. The game is on Thursday night and we have seen some strange things happen in the Thursday games. However, historically Thursday has been favorable to the home teams which further helps the Packers. As 9 points favorites they are being picked the second highest at 17% but against the Vikings that doesn’t worry me. Since I am out of Saints I am going with the Packers in both large and small contests.
3) Lions – The Lions have been a top ten team so far this year and have a favorable matchup against the Bills who are starting Kyle Orton for the first time this year. Orton tried to retire this year but the Bills money convinced him to come back for one more year. Manuel has been one of the worst QB’s this year but that doesn’t mean Orton will be any better. The problem is the unknown factor with Orton and we hate risk in Survivor pools. The Lions actually have more favorable matchups down the road than the Packers
4) Steelers – Can we really trust the Steelers after their embarrassing performance last week? When they are playing the Jaguars, even on the road, you may need to. This is by far the best remaining matchup for the Steelers so if you have them left and want to save one of the teams above I think they are a reasonable option.
Will Grant: Yep. I regret it. Last week I switched my pick from SD to PIT and said that I hoped that I wouldn't regret it. Five minutes in to the Pittsburgh game, I regretted it. Sometimes you just need to take the layup. Which just happens to be against Tampa this week with the Saints. At this point it doesn't matter as much since in most normal pools, I would be eliminated, but had I survived last week, the Saints at home against the Bucs would be the pick I'd make.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.