Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Note that the links above are for 2013 articles. Please see the Week 15 2014 Page at Footballguys.com for the 2014 Week 15 updates.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s pre-season plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week, along with the results and standings so far:
Staffer | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Aaron Rudnicki | 13-1 | PIT | GB | NE | SD | NO | DEN | BUF | KC | CIN | BAL | WASH | INDY | STL | MIN | NYG | ||
Dan Hindery | 12-2 | PHI | DEN | INDY | SD | GB | BAL | NE | KC | SEA | CIN | PIT | SF | MIA | NO | DET | ||
Dave Larkin | 12-2 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | DET | TEN | BAL | CLE | CIN | AZ | MIA | GB | STL | NO | NYG | ||
James Brimacombe | 12-2 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | GB | SF | SEA | KC | CIN | AZ | CLE | CHI | STL | DET | BAL | ||
Jeff Haseley | 12-2 | NYJ | DEN | NE | PIT | SD | AZ | DAL | KC | CIN | BAL | NO | INDY | HOU | DET | NYG | ||
Alessandro Miglio | 12-2 | NYJ | TB | NE | SD | NO | DEN | AZ | CLE | CIN | PIT | SF | INDY | HOU | GB | KC | ||
John Lee | 11-3 | PIT | TB | NE | SD | GB | TEN | WASH | CLE | CIN | AZ | NO | SF | INDY | NO | KC | ||
Maurile Tremblay | 11-3 | DEN | AZ | NE | PIT | CIN | TEN | SEA | MIA | NO | PHI | WASH | DAL | DET | GB | BAL | ||
Jeff Pasquino | 11-3 | PHI | GB | NE | PIT | SD | DEN | CLE | KC | SEA | DAL | NO | SF | INDY | DET | BAL | ||
Clayton Gray | 11-3 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | DET | SEA | BAL | KC | CLE | AZ | WASH | INDY | MIA | GB | NYG | ||
Matt Bitonti | 11-3 | NYJ | SEA | NE | PIT | PHI | DEN | BUF | KC | CIN | BAL | NO | SF | INDY | MIN | DET | ||
Jason Wood | 11-3 | PIT | HOU | NE | ATL | SD | DEN | SEA | DAL | KC | BAL | CHI | INDY | MIA | GB | DET | ||
William Grant | 11-3 | NYJ | GB | NO | PIT | NO | CIN | NE | MIA | SEA | BAL | SD | INDY | HOU | DET | KC | ||
Justin Bonnema | 10-4 | NYJ | WASH | NE | SD | DET | TEN | CHI | TB | CIN | BAL | PIT | CHI | STL | SF | NYG | ||
Steve Buzzard | 10-4 | PHI | DEN | NO | PIT | GB | SEA | NE | DAL | SF | AZ | SD | INDY | HOU | DET | BAL | ||
Ari Engel | 9-5 | NE | NO | CIN | SD | SEA | DEN | DAL | DET | SF | BAL | NYG | GB | INDY | CHI | NYG | ||
Steve Holloway | 9-5 | CHI | DEN | CIN | PIT | NO | SD | BAL | DAL | KC | SEA | CLE | INDY | STL | SF | NE | ||
Andy Hicks | 9-5 | CHI | DEN | NO | SD | DET | CIN | NE | DAL | CIN | SEA | SF | INDY | PIT | GB | NYG | ||
Andrew Garda | 9-5 | PHI | AZ | MIA | PIT | NYG | TEN | CHI | CLE | CIN | NO | MIN | DEN | DET | STL | BAL | ||
Mark Wimer | 9-5 | NYJ | TB | CIN | WASH | GB | TEN | CLE | DAL | KC | BAL | NO | PHI | INDY | DET | NE | ||
Bear Heiser | 7-7 | PHI | NO | NE | SD | PIT | GB | SEA | KC | SF | AZ | WASH | STL | NYG | SF | INDY | ||
Phil Alexander | 7-7 | PHI | TB | NE | PIT | DET | SD | AZ | MIA | CIN | BAL | DEN | KC | NYG | NYG | CAR |
DISCUSSION
This year we have 22 staffers are in the pool, and if this was really a "one and done" tournament, it would all be over now after the calamitous Week 11 results. But we press on - and now only one staff member has one loss, Aaron Rudnicki, while others still try and catch up with just a few weeks left. Week 14 had seven losses spread around the group with New Orleans (3) and San Francisco (3) each falling short. So there's no question that upsets rock the boat here, and you really need to just take the best team each week and hope for a quick ending in smaller leagues (about 50 teams or less). In large tournaments or those with buybacks (or even like here, where best record wins), you do need to plan.
Week 15 looks a little more interesting as seven different teams have been chosen. The top picks are the Giants (7) and Ravens (5), followed by the Chiefs (3) and Lions (3). The Giants are a tricky one in picking a team with a losing record against a divisional rival, but they are at home and appear to be better than Washington so far. Baltimore, Kansas City and Detroit are big home favorites, but the Chiefs and Lions are also facing dvisional rivals. New England was the only other team to get more than one choice, and they host Miami (anotehr divisional game) this week. Additional picks include the Colts and Carolina. Pickings do get slimmer in December, so this could be interesting once again this week.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: Last week was not a problem with the Lions saved, and I am in a similar position with the Ravens still in tow. That sticks to my plan from the preseason but Weeks 16 and 17 look tough. I am probably boxed into a corner to consider mediocre teams for Weeks 16 and 17, but that is what happens after 15 weeks. I still have a few winning teams left but finding the right matchups is going to be challenging.
For those of you in a similar position who already used Baltimore, I would go with the following teams in order for a "Top 10" of sorts: Baltimore, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Seattle, Detroit, Green Bay, New England, Pittsburgh, New York Giants, St. Louis. After that it really gets sketchy.
As always, you can ask Steve or myself any questions and use "For The Win" and our staff confidence picks for the week as well to help you.
Good luck!
Steve Buzzard: Last week was a pretty good week as you should have successfully faded the Saints and 49ers last week. This week the plan stays on path as I will strongly suggest the Ravens as 14 point favorites at home against the Jaguars in both leagues with a few people left and those with many players left. The Jaguars have been playing a little better of late and now have two wins but the Ravens should be safe from a letdown as they are still fighting for a playoff spot and a division win.
You shouldn’t have needed to use the Ravens yet this year but if you have my next favorite pick would be the Lions who are playing about as well as anyone. The Lions are desperate for a win as they can’t afford any more losses in order to win the wild card in a very hotly contested wild card race. The Vikings have been better than most expected this year but with their playoff lives over I don’t see them coming through with the upset.
The Chiefs would be my next favorite pick but they are being selected by nearly 1/3rd of the competition which is almost as high as the Ravens but they aren’t as good and their opponent is better. Even if I had the Chiefs left I would be tempted to fade them if I felt like my next few weeks didn’t set up as well as my opponents.
Finally, my last option for the week would be the Seahawks against the 49ers. This game is only being selected by 5% of the player pool but this is largely due to teams already using them. In reality they should be selected by over 20%+ of the teams given their Vegas point spread. However, despite how bad the 49ers have looked the last few weeks I would be hesitant to go against them in a game where both teams clearly hate each other.
As always if you have any specific questions about your pool feel free to write me and I would be more than happy to provide individualized advice based on the teams you have left and your opponents. Best of luck, you are almost there!
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.