Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Note that the links above are for 2013 articles. Please see the Week 14 2014 Page at Footballguys.com for the 2014 Week 14 updates.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s pre-season plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week, along with the results and standings so far:
Staffer | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Aaron Rudnicki | 12-1 | PIT | GB | NE | SD | NO | DEN | BUF | KC | CIN | BAL | WASH | INDY | STL | MIN | |||
Dan Hindery | 12-1 | PHI | DEN | INDY | SD | GB | BAL | NE | KC | SEA | CIN | PIT | SF | MIA | NO | |||
Dave Larkin | 12-1 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | DET | TEN | BAL | CLE | CIN | AZ | MIA | GB | STL | NO | |||
James Brimacombe | 11-2 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | GB | SF | SEA | KC | CIN | AZ | CLE | CHI | STL | DET | |||
Jeff Haseley | 11-2 | NYJ | DEN | NE | PIT | SD | AZ | DAL | KC | CIN | BAL | NO | INDY | HOU | DET | |||
John Lee | 11-2 | PIT | TB | NE | SD | GB | TEN | WASH | CLE | CIN | AZ | NO | SF | INDY | NO | |||
Alessandro Miglio | 11-2 | NYJ | TB | NE | SD | NO | DEN | AZ | CLE | CIN | PIT | SF | INDY | HOU | GB | |||
Maurile Tremblay | 10-3 | DEN | AZ | NE | PIT | CIN | TEN | SEA | MIA | NO | PHI | WASH | DAL | DET | GB | |||
Jeff Pasquino | 10-3 | PHI | GB | NE | PIT | SD | DEN | CLE | KC | SEA | DAL | NO | SF | INDY | DET | |||
Clayton Gray | 10-3 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | DET | SEA | BAL | KC | CLE | AZ | WASH | INDY | MIA | GB | |||
Matt Bitonti | 10-3 | NYJ | SEA | NE | PIT | PHI | DEN | BUF | KC | CIN | BAL | NO | SF | INDY | MIN | |||
Justin Bonnema | 10-3 | NYJ | WASH | NE | SD | DET | TEN | CHI | TB | CIN | BAL | PIT | CHI | STL | SF | |||
Jason Wood | 10-3 | PIT | HOU | NE | ATL | SD | DEN | SEA | DAL | KC | BAL | CHI | INDY | MIA | GB | |||
William Grant | 10-3 | NYJ | GB | NO | PIT | NO | CIN | NE | MIA | SEA | BAL | SD | INDY | HOU | DET | |||
Ari Engel | 9-4 | NE | NO | CIN | SD | SEA | DEN | DAL | DET | SF | BAL | NYG | GB | INDY | X | |||
Steve Holloway | 9-4 | CHI | DEN | CIN | PIT | NO | SD | BAL | DAL | KC | SEA | CLE | INDY | STL | SF | |||
Steve Buzzard | 9-4 | PHI | DEN | NO | PIT | GB | SEA | NE | DAL | SF | AZ | SD | INDY | HOU | DET | |||
Andy Hicks | 8-5 | CHI | DEN | NO | SD | DET | CIN | NE | DAL | CIN | SEA | SF | INDY | PIT | GB | |||
Andrew Garda | 8-5 | PHI | AZ | MIA | PIT | NYG | TEN | CHI | CLE | CIN | NO | MIN | DEN | DET | STL | |||
Mark Wimer | 8-5 | NYJ | TB | CIN | WASH | GB | TEN | CLE | DAL | KC | BAL | NO | PHI | INDY | DET | |||
Bear Heiser | 7-6 | PHI | NO | NE | SD | PIT | GB | SEA | KC | SF | AZ | WASH | STL | NYG | SF | |||
Phil Alexander | 7-6 | PHI | TB | NE | PIT | DET | SD | AZ | MIA | CIN | BAL | DEN | KC | NYG | X |
DISCUSSION
This year we have 22 staffers are in the pool, and if this was really a "one and done" tournament, it would all be over now after the calamitous Week 11 results. But we press on - and only three staffers have one loss, while others still try and catch up with just a few weeks left. Week 13 was pretty uneventful aside from two losses due to Jacksonville beating the Giants, who find another way to blow a big lead again, and one other wrong pick of the Steelers at home. So there's no question that upsets rock the boat here, and you really need to just take the best team each week and hope for a quick ending in smaller leagues (about 50 teams or less). In large tournaments or those with buybacks (or even like here, where best record wins), you do need to plan.
Week 14 looks a little more interesting as we have all but one pick in as of Thursday and seven different teams have been chosen. The top picks are the Lions (6) and Packers (5), followed by the Saints (3) and San Francisco (3). No doubt that the selection of Denver would have shown up more if they were left available, but no one went in that direction. The 49ers seems a little risky on the road, but going against Oakland feels pretty safe. Additional picks include the Vikings (2) hosting the Jets and two unique picks of the Ram (at Washington) and the Giants (at Tennessee). Pickings do get slimmer in December, so this could be interesting once again this week.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: I cruised by last week by taking the Rams, and I have no choice but to deviate from my early season plan since I already used Denver. Detroit makes the most sense here and I am going to not think too hard about it.
Steve Buzzard: Another dull week for eliminations, especially if you heeded my words of wisdom and avoided the Giants who had trouble with the Jaguars as expected.
This week I am sticking to the plan I laid out last week and going with the Lions in this league as well as my one remaining league. If you still have the Saints left I would consider going with them over the Lions mainly because the Lions are being picked at a rate of 40% compared to Saints rate of 7%. Neither team has that much value left so this is the best week to use either of them. I think both are relatively safe picks with the Panthers reeling and the Buccaneers playing closer to that first overall pick than a possible division winner.
The Packers and Broncos both make for great picks this week but I would rather save the Broncos for week 17 against the Raiders and the Packers for week 16 against the Buccaneers. That said if you still have the Patriots or Dolphins saved for that week I would be fine with rolling out the Packers this week.
The 49ers make for an uninspiring pick to round out the teams I would want to go with. If you are still stuck I would look at the Vikings, Texans and Colts. I like keeping either the Colts or Texans for their week 17 matchup against the Titans or Jaguars at home, respectively. But the Texans may be eliminated from the playoffs by then or the Colts may be on a virtual bye so you might as well use them this week and hope something comes along in week 17. The Colts will pose a little extra risk if the Browns decide to go with Johnny Manziel as expected. If that is the case I would probably fade the Colts and save them for later. If you are really desperate you can roll out the Vikings against the Jets.
In summary my proposed order is:
- Packers (if you have the Dolphins or Patriots, if not move to below Lions)
- Saints
- Lions
- Broncos
- 49ers
- Texans
- Vikings
- Colts (assuming Manziel plays if not move ahead of Vikings)
If you only expect the contest to go two more games or less I would go with the following. Although as always note this changes depending on who your opponent has left. Feel free to ask about your specific league if you have any questions.
- Packers
- Broncos
- Saints
- Lions
- 49ers
- Texans
- Vikings
- Colts (assuming Manziel plays if not move ahead of Vikings)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.