Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Note that the links above are for 2013 articles. Please see the Week 13 2014 Page at Footballguys.com for the 2014 Week 13 updates.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s pre-season plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week, along with the results and standings so far:
Staffer | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Aaron Rudnicki | 11-1 | PIT | GB | NE | SD | NO | DEN | BUF | KC | CIN | BAL | WASH | INDY | X | ||||
Dan Hindery | 11-1 | PHI | DEN | INDY | SD | GB | BAL | NE | KC | SEA | CIN | PIT | SF | MIA | ||||
Dave Larkin | 11-1 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | DET | TEN | BAL | CLE | CIN | AZ | MIA | GB | STL | ||||
James Brimacombe | 10-2 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | GB | SF | SEA | KC | CIN | AZ | CLE | CHI | STL | ||||
Jeff Haseley | 10-2 | NYJ | DEN | NE | PIT | SD | AZ | DAL | KC | CIN | BAL | NO | INDY | HOU | ||||
John Lee | 10-2 | PIT | TB | NE | SD | GB | TEN | WASH | CLE | CIN | AZ | NO | SF | INDY | ||||
Alessandro Miglio | 10-2 | NYJ | TB | NE | SD | NO | DEN | AZ | CLE | CIN | PIT | SF | INDY | HOU | ||||
Maurile Tremblay | 9-3 | DEN | AZ | NE | PIT | CIN | TEN | SEA | MIA | NO | PHI | WASH | DAL | DET | ||||
Jeff Pasquino | 9-3 | PHI | GB | NE | PIT | SD | DEN | CLE | KC | SEA | DAL | NO | SF | INDY | ||||
Clayton Gray | 9-3 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | DET | SEA | BAL | KC | CLE | AZ | WASH | INDY | MIA | ||||
Matt Bitonti | 9-3 | NYJ | SEA | NE | PIT | PHI | DEN | BUF | KC | CIN | BAL | NO | SF | INDY | ||||
Justin Bonnema | 9-3 | NYJ | WASH | NE | SD | DET | TEN | CHI | TB | CIN | BAL | PIT | CHI | STL | ||||
Jason Wood | 9-3 | PIT | HOU | NE | ATL | SD | DEN | SEA | DAL | KC | BAL | CHI | INDY | MIA | ||||
William Grant | 9-3 | NYJ | GB | NO | PIT | NO | CIN | NE | MIA | SEA | BAL | SD | INDY | X | ||||
Ari Engel | 8-4 | NE | NO | CIN | SD | SEA | DEN | DAL | DET | SF | BAL | NYG | GB | INDY | ||||
Steve Holloway | 8-4 | CHI | DEN | CIN | PIT | NO | SD | BAL | DAL | KC | SEA | CLE | INDY | STL | ||||
Steve Buzzard | 8-4 | PHI | DEN | NO | PIT | GB | SEA | NE | DAL | SF | AZ | SD | INDY | HOU | ||||
Andy Hicks | 8-4 | CHI | DEN | NO | SD | DET | CIN | NE | DAL | CIN | SEA | SF | INDY | PIT | ||||
Bear Heiser | 7-5 | PHI | NO | NE | SD | PIT | GB | SEA | KC | SF | AZ | WASH | STL | NYG | ||||
Phil Alexander | 7-5 | PHI | TB | NE | PIT | DET | SD | AZ | MIA | CIN | BAL | DEN | KC | NYG | ||||
Andrew Garda | 7-5 | PHI | AZ | MIA | PIT | NYG | TEN | CHI | CLE | CIN | NO | MIN | DEN | DET | ||||
Mark Wimer | 7-5 | NYJ | TB | CIN | WASH | GB | TEN | CLE | DAL | KC | BAL | NO | PHI | INDY |
DISCUSSION
This year we have 22 staffers are in the pool, and if this was really a "one and done" tournament, it would all be over now after the calamitous Week 11 results. Less than half (8 of 22) of the staff had a correct pick in Week 11 in one of the worst weeks across the board in recent memory. That gives everyone in the pool at least one loss and all but three staff have two or more. So there's no question that upsets rock the boat here, and you really need to just take the best team each week and hope for a quick ending in smaller leagues (about 50 teams or less). In large tournaments or those with buybacks (or even like here, where best record wins), you do need to plan.
Week 12 was rather uneventful, with only two wrong picks due to the Oakland upset of Kansas City and San Diego's close win over the Rams. Week 13 looks a little more interesting as we have all but two picks in on a short week before Thanksgiving and seven different teams have been chosen. The top picks are the Colts (5) and Rams (4), followed by the Texans (3) and Miami (3). No doubt that the selection of Indianapolis would have been much higher had not most of the staff already used the Colts this season. Interesting choice of the Dolphins, which breaks two of my rules (road team choice, divisional matchup game) but I have to agree that I like Miami to win that game. Additional picks include the Giants (2) at Jacksonville and the Detroit Lions (2) at home against the Bears on Thanksgiving Day. Only one unique choice this week with Andy Hicks' selection of Pittsburgh at home hosting the struggling New Orleans Saints.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: I managed to go unscathed last week with a narrow win by the 49ers over Washington, but they all count. This week I am sticking with my preseason plan and taking the Colts in a tough week for selections. Had I not had Indianapolis left, I certainly would have taken the Rams at home to beat Oakland as a solid second choice.
To help a few of you out here, I would probably target Miami as a third option, even though they are on the road on a national television game against a divisional rival. That game does scare me as I see the Jets competing and with Geno Smith likely starting once again, the team could rally and put up a big fight.
Lastly, I just wanted to advise anyone looking at Houston to tread lightly. Tennessee has been looking better each week now, and with the Texans having to go back to Ryan Tannehill, I could see an upset here in another divisional matchup.
Steve Buzzard: Last week was a pretty uneventful week which was unfortunate for those of us that used the Colts. At least the third most popular team (Kansas City) lost and hopefully none of you had to use them as they were way down on my priority list.
If you were able to hold back the Colts last week by using the Eagles you are handsomely rewarded as the Colts ended up with the biggest spread of the week as expected at 10 and are only the second most popular team being selected at 18%. If you have them left this is the week to go all in on them.
The most popular team this week is the Rams being selected at an astonishing 32%. Vegas has made the Rams a 7-point favorite which is significant but not enough to warrant such a high selection rate. This is one of those weeks where you need to fade the favorite and hope they get knocked out so you can win all of the cash. You never know maybe the Raiders can do it two weeks in a row.
I am going to go with the Texans here which will keep my end of the season plan in tact as I can then go with the Lions, Ravens, and Dolphins in weeks 14, 15 and 16. That plan leaves me with no one really left for week 17 but my hope will be that the pool is over or there is a team that is resting players. If you are pretty sure your league will go all the way through week 17 you may want to consider holding back the Dolphins who play the Jets or Texans who play the Jaguars. If you have the Colts for this week the plan is perfect to flip the Texans back to week 17.
If you don’t have either the Colts or the Texans I would recommend sacrificing one of these future weeks instead of chasing the Rams. My first preference would be the Bengals as they would allow you to keep intact the rest of the season plan. If you don’t have the Bengals I would go with the Lions, Dolphins, and Ravens in that order for leagues that you expect to last through week 16.
If on the other hand you think your season will be over sooner than later eliminate the Bengals and make your list the following. Colts, Texans, Dolphins, Lions, Ravens, Rams. Whatever you do in either league don’t be tempted to take the Giants who are amazingly the third most popular team this week on the road against the Jaguars. I know the Jaguars are bad but it is a road game and bad Eli Manning can show up at any time.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.