Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Note that the links above are for 2013 articles. Please see the Week 6 2014 Page at Footballguys.com for the 2014 Week 6 updates.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s pre-season plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week, along with the results and standings so far:
Staffer | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Dan Hindery | 5-0 | PHI | DEN | INDY | SD | GB | BAL | |||||||||||
James Brimacombe | 5-0 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | GB | SF | |||||||||||
Aaron Rudnicki | 5-0 | PIT | GB | NE | SD | NO | DEN | |||||||||||
Clayton Gray | 4-1 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | DET | SEA | |||||||||||
Dave Larkin | 4-1 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | DET | TEN | |||||||||||
Justin Bonnema | 4-1 | NYJ | WASH | NE | SD | DET | TEN | |||||||||||
Maurile Tremblay | 4-1 | DEN | AZ | NE | PIT | CIN | TEN | |||||||||||
Steve Buzzard | 4-1 | PHI | DEN | NO | PIT | GB | SEA | |||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | 4-1 | PHI | GB | NE | PIT | SD | DEN | |||||||||||
Jeff Haseley | 4-1 | NYJ | DEN | NE | PIT | SD | AZ | |||||||||||
Jason Wood | 4-1 | PIT | HOU | NE | ATL | SD | DEN | |||||||||||
Bear Heiser | 4-1 | PHI | NO | NE | SD | PIT | GB | |||||||||||
Alessandro Miglio | 4-1 | NYJ | TB | NE | SD | NO | DEN | |||||||||||
John Lee | 4-1 | PIT | TB | NE | SD | GB | TEN | |||||||||||
William Grant | 3-2 | NYJ | GB | NO | PIT | NO | CIN | |||||||||||
Andy Hicks | 3-2 | CHI | DEN | NO | SD | DET | CIN | |||||||||||
Andrew Garda | 3-2 | PHI | AZ | MIA | PIT | NYG | TEN | |||||||||||
Matt Bitonti | 3-2 | NYJ | SEA | NE | PIT | PHI | DEN | |||||||||||
Mark Wimer | 3-2 | NYJ | TB | CIN | WASH | GB | TEN | |||||||||||
Steve Holloway | 3-2 | CHI | DEN | CIN | PIT | NO | SD | |||||||||||
Ari Engel | 3-2 | NE | NO | CIN | SD | SEA | DEN | |||||||||||
Phil Alexander | 2-3 | PHI | TB | NE | PIT | DET | SD |
DISCUSSION
This year we have 22 staffers are in the pool, and if this was really a "one and done" tournament, we would be down to just three people left. I've often played in a "buyback pool", where after one loss you can still continue (for a second entry fee) - and if that was the case here, we would still be at 14 teams (14 of 22, or 64%). So there's no question that upsets rock the boat here, and you really need to just take the best team each week and hope for a quick ending in smaller leagues (about 50 teams or less). In large tournaments or those with buybacks (or even like here, where best record wins), you do need to plan.
Last week five teams were tripped up by the Lions, who just did not perform well at home agianst Buffalo. We also had one person re-pick the same team, which has to be marked as a loss as well. Several other staffers just got by with the likes of New Orleans, who needed a big comeback to win in overtime.
So how does Week 6 look? Well, we have quite the spread of picks here, as nine different teams were chosen at least once, the most of any week this season. The most popular were Denver (at the New York Jets) and Tennessee (home against Jacksonville) with six picks each. I mentioned in For The Win this week that I think Jacksonville could upset the Titans, so I felt that a pick of Tennessee was rather risky this week. The next most popular picks were the Bengals, Seahawks and Chargers with two staffer selections each, while Baltimore, Arizona and Green Bay had one unique pick. With so many different picks, it should make for a lively week.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: I decided to go off of the preseason script here as I cannot trust Arizona at home against Washington. The quarterback uncertainty for the Cardinals does not allow me to take Arizona, so I have to look elsewhere. I considered Tennessee at home against Jacksonville, but the Jaguars are getting close to finally winning and I think this could be their week. That meant I had to take either Denver at the Jets as the next best bet.
Steve Buzzard: Last week was a pretty dull week with only the Lions entries getting eliminated but we were very close to losing all the Saints teams as well. At this point you should have about 30-40% of your teams left. If you have under 50 teams left in your pool you probably don’t need to worry about the last few weeks. Under 10 I wouldn’t worry much past week 10. This week is a very difficult week and could see several teams eliminated since there are 4 teams with spreads between 7 and 8 points and picks spread out between them. All four of them make reasonable picks. Due to the close matchups let’s spread our net a little larger than normal.
1) The Bengals are coming off an ugly loss to the Patriots and everyone seems to be taking that game highly into consideration as they are only being selected 12% of the time despite being a 7.5 point favorite against the Panthers who are still a slightly below average team. The Bengals are still one of the better teams in the league, they just aren’t one of the best. What put’s the Bengals at the top of my list is their low pick rate and their future schedule which is a little more difficult than the two very good teams remaining. The Bengals are my pick in any league over 10-20 people left and who I will go with here. **Note with A.J. Green’s injury today I am going to recommend the Seahawks. If you can pick later in the week and Green is able to go at full speed I would recommend the Bengals.
2) If you have used the Bengals I am ready to finally bring out the Seahawks who are playing like they are ready to make another run at a Super Bowl. The Cowboys have gone very run heavy so far this year but I think they will be forced to pass a little more in this one which plays right into the Seahawks hand.
3) Speaking of teams ready to make a run at a Super Bowl I am hoping for a rematch with the Broncos and they are my choice at the Jets if your league has only 10 or so players left. The Jets are a mess right now on offense and passing defense. I am not sure how they will stop the Broncos passing attack or keep up with them on the scoreboard. Right now I want to save them for a later week since they are being selected by 26% of the teams this week but I couldn’t fault you for going this route even in larger pools.
4) The Chargers are my fourth option this week because they are being picked so low, but it is a road game against a division foe and they have a home game against the Raiders in week 11 that looks a lot more appealing to me.
The Cardinals could join this group too if Carson Palmer is able to come back and play but I can’t endorse a Drew Stanton led team even against the Redskins. If his status changes I would expect Palmer to be worth about 3 points to the Cardinals point spread. Since I assume Vegas has him weighted at about a 50% chance of playing it would raise the spread by 1.5 points which would put it in the same range as the teams listed above. Even so playing the Cardinals in Palmer’s first game back is a bit risky with 12% of the teams already picking them so I would rank them fourth. I also think the Titans are too risky with Whitehurst playing even against the Jaguars.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.