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Against The Spread Pool: Week 9

Footballguys.com Staff Pick NFL Games Against the Las Vegas Point Spread

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread.  Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line.  As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.  

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Road Team: MIA DET CIN TB NYG MIN AZ SD SF TEN NYJ SEA GB INDY        
Home Team: NE KC PIT ATL NO CHI CLE BAL STL HOU OAK DAL DEN CAR        
Favorite: NE KC CIN ATL NO MIN AZ BAL STL HOU NYJ SEA GB CAR        
Point Spread: -7.5 -5.5 -2.5 -7.5 -3.5 -2.5 -5.5 -3.5 -8.5 -0.5 -2.5 -6.5 -3.5 -6.5        
Staffer The Picks MNF LW YtD Win%
Danny Tuccitto MIA KC CIN TB NYG MIN AZ SD STL HOU NYJ SEA DEN CAR 49 10 63 52.0%
Jeff Pasquino NE DET CIN ATL NYG MIN AZ SD STL HOU NYJ SEA GB INDY 51 9 63 52.0%
Justin Howe MIA DET PIT TB NYG CHI AZ SD SF HOU OAK DAL DEN INDY 47 9 65 53.7%
William Grant NE DET CIN TB NO MIN AZ SD STL HOU NYJ DAL GB CAR 44 9 64 52.8%
Aaron Rudnicki MIA DET CIN TB NO MIN AZ SD STL HOU NYJ SEA GB INDY 40 8 57 47.1%
Andy Hicks MIA DET CIN TB NYG MIN AZ SD SF TEN OAK SEA GB INDY 59 8 66 54.5%
James Brimacombe MIA DET PIT TB NYG MIN AZ SD STL HOU NYJ SEA GB INDY 57 8 50 41.3%
John Lee MIA KC PIT TB NYG CHI CLE BAL STL HOU NYJ DAL DEN INDY 43 8 66 54.5%
Mark Wimer MIA DET CIN ATL NO MIN AZ SD STL HOU OAK DAL GB CAR 45 8 62 51.2%
Maurile Tremblay MIA KC PIT TB NYG CHI AZ SD STL TEN NYJ DAL DEN CAR 40 8 63 52.0%
Alessandro Miglio MIA DET PIT ATL NO MIN AZ SD SF HOU OAK DAL DEN CAR 45 7 58 47.9%
Andrew Garda MIA DET CIN ATL NYG MIN AZ SD SF HOU NYJ SEA GB INDY 45 7 58 47.9%
Jeff Haseley NE KC PIT TB NO CHI CLE SD SF TEN OAK DAL DEN CAR 43 7 53 43.8%
Justin Bonnema MIA KC PIT TB NO CHI AZ SD STL HOU NYJ SEA GB INDY 54 7 69 57.0%
Phil Alexander NE KC PIT TB NYG CHI CLE SD SF HOU NYJ SEA GB INDY 45 7 64 52.8%
Bear Heiser MIA DET PIT ATL NO CHI AZ SD STL HOU OAK SEA GB INDY 54 6 59 48.7%
Clayton Gray MIA DET PIT ATL NO MIN AZ SD STL HOU NYJ SEA DEN CAR 45 6 62 51.2%
Matt Bitonti MIA DET CIN ATL NO MIN AZ BAL SF HOU OAK DAL GB CAR 48 6 63 52.0%
Chris Feery MIA DET CIN ATL NYG CHI AZ BAL STL TEN NYJ DAL GB CAR 45 5 55 45.4%
Jason Wood MIA DET PIT ATL NO MIN AZ SD SF HOU NYJ SEA GB INDY 48 5 67 55.3%
Steve Holloway MIA DET PIT TB NYG MIN AZ BAL SF TEN OAK SEA GB CAR 51 5 49 40.4%
Dan Hindery MIA DET PIT ATL NYG CHI AZ BAL STL TEN NYJ SEA DEN CAR 41 4 51 42.1%
Dave Larkin NE DET PIT TB NO CHI CLE BAL SF HOU NYJ SEA DEN CAR 51 4 59 48.7%

Danny Tuccitto picked up the win in Week 7, nailing 10 of 14 games.  Three more staffers (including myself) hit nine games right, finishing one step behind Danny.  The entire group did well for the week, winning Week 7 overall  (161-147, 52.3%) and just enough to have a winning week in Las Vegas.  Underdog picks of Miami (17), Detroit (16) and Pittsburgh (13) did not pay off, but the upset call of San Diego (16) certainly did.  The Jets (15), Seattle (14) and Green Bay (14) were also upset in Week 8, creating all sorts of land mines.  Somehow the group managed to dance around most of these to have a winning week.  The good results moved the staff above 50% correct picks for the year at 1,386-1,276 (52.1%), which is almost enough for the entire staff to be beating Las Vegas. Here's hoping that the winning ways continue for Week 9. 

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Road Team: CLE TEN MIA WASH JAX OAK STL GB NYG ATL DEN PHI CHI  
Home Team: CIN NO BUF NE NYJ PIT MIN CAR TB SF INDY DAL SD  
Favorite: CIN NO BUF NE NYJ PIT MIN GB NYG ATL DEN PHI SD  
Point Spread: -10.5 -8.5 -3.5 -13.5 -2.5 -5.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -3.5  
Staffer The Picks MNF
Jeff Pasquino CIN NO MIA NE JAX OAK STL CAR TB ATL DEN PHI CHI 54
Aaron Rudnicki CIN NO BUF NE NYJ OAK MIN GB NYG ATL DEN PHI CHI 42
Alessandro Miglio CLE NO MIA WASH NYJ OAK MIN GB NYG ATL DEN DAL SD 48
Andrew Garda CLE NO MIA NE NYJ OAK MIN GB NYG ATL DEN PHI SD 40
Andy Hicks CLE TEN BUF WASH NYJ OAK MIN GB NYG ATL DEN PHI SD 58
Bear Heiser CLE NO BUF NE NYJ OAK STL CAR NYG ATL DEN PHI CHI 46
Chris Feery CIN NO BUF NE NYJ OAK STL CAR NYG ATL DEN DAL CHI 49
Clayton Gray CIN NO BUF NE JAX OAK MIN CAR TB ATL DEN DAL SD 57
Dan Hindery CIN NO MIA NE JAX OAK STL GB TB ATL DEN PHI CHI 47
Danny Tuccitto CLE NO MIA NE NYJ PIT MIN GB NYG ATL INDY PHI CHI 49
Dave Larkin CIN NO BUF NE NYJ OAK MIN GB TB SF DEN DAL CHI 52
James Brimacombe CIN NO MIA NE NYJ PIT MIN GB NYG ATL INDY PHI SD 55
Jason Wood CIN NO MIA NE JAX OAK MIN GB NYG ATL DEN PHI CHI 47
Jeff Haseley CIN TEN MIA NE NYJ OAK STL CAR NYG ATL DEN DAL SD 49
John Lee CLE NO MIA NE NYJ OAK STL CAR NYG ATL DEN DAL CHI 46
Justin Bonnema CLE NO MIA NE NYJ OAK MIN GB NYG ATL DEN DAL SD 50
Justin Howe CIN TEN MIA NE NYJ OAK MIN CAR TB ATL DEN DAL CHI 51
Mark Wimer CIN NO BUF NE JAX OAK STL CAR NYG ATL DEN PHI CHI 38
Matt Bitonti CIN NO BUF NE NYJ PIT MIN CAR NYG ATL DEN PHI SD 52
Maurile Tremblay CLE TEN MIA WASH NYJ OAK STL CAR TB ATL DEN DAL CHI 49
Phil Alexander CIN TEN BUF NE NYJ PIT MIN GB TB ATL DEN PHI SD 47
Steve Holloway CLE NO MIA NE JAX OAK STL CAR NYG ATL DEN PHI SD 52
William Grant CIN NO MIA NE NYJ OAK MIN GB TB ATL DEN DAL SD 47

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Eight weeks are now behind us, and we are getting closer to our first consensus pick.  Two teams came very close for the group as 21 of 23 staffers chose Denver to win and cover at Indianapolis, and only one staff member went against Atlanta as the Falcons travel to San Francisco.  The Patriots were also pretty close as the staff learned their lesson of going against a not New England club and chose them 20 out of 23 times this week.  Clearly the group will sink or swim on these three picks.   The next most popular selections for Week 9 were Oakland (19), New Orleans (18),the Jets (17) and Tampa Bay (15).  No other team was picked more than 14 times.  Las Vegas would love these sets of picks with three games nearly dead even (Green Bay / Carolina, Philadelphia / Dallas and Chicago / San Diego) as the choices were split almost exactly in half for these contests.  It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.

ODDS AND ENDS

We are getting deeper into the season so we should know more, but picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 52.3% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding.  That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.