Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | SEA | BUF | NO | PIT | NYJ | MIN | HOU | CLE | ATL | TB | OAK | DAL | PHI | BAL | ||||
Home Team: | SF | JAX | INDY | KC | NE | DET | MIA | STL | TEN | WASH | SD | NYG | CAR | AZ | ||||
Favorite: | SEA | BUF | INDY | PIT | NE | MIN | MIA | STL | ATL | WASH | SD | NYG | CAR | AZ | ||||
Point Spread: | -6.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -9.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | ||||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | Win% | |||||||||||||
John Lee | SEA | JAX | NO | PIT | NYJ | DET | MIA | STL | TEN | TB | SD | DAL | CAR | AZ | 42 | 10 | 58 | 55.2% |
Aaron Rudnicki | SEA | JAX | NO | PIT | NYJ | MIN | MIA | STL | ATL | TB | OAK | DAL | PHI | BAL | 42 | 9 | 49 | 46.6% |
Bear Heiser | SEA | JAX | NO | PIT | NYJ | DET | HOU | STL | ATL | TB | OAK | NYG | CAR | BAL | 46 | 9 | 53 | 50.4% |
Clayton Gray | SEA | JAX | INDY | PIT | NYJ | MIN | MIA | STL | ATL | WASH | SD | NYG | CAR | AZ | 45 | 9 | 56 | 53.3% |
Phil Alexander | SEA | BUF | INDY | KC | NYJ | DET | MIA | STL | TEN | WASH | OAK | NYG | PHI | AZ | 50 | 9 | 57 | 54.2% |
Jeff Pasquino | SEA | JAX | INDY | PIT | NYJ | MIN | HOU | STL | ATL | TB | SD | DAL | CAR | AZ | 54 | 8 | 54 | 51.4% |
Andy Hicks | SEA | JAX | INDY | KC | NE | MIN | MIA | CLE | ATL | TB | OAK | DAL | PHI | AZ | 51 | 8 | 58 | 55.2% |
Chris Feery | SF | JAX | NO | PIT | NYJ | MIN | HOU | CLE | ATL | TB | OAK | DAL | CAR | AZ | 49 | 8 | 50 | 47.6% |
Dave Larkin | SF | BUF | INDY | PIT | NYJ | MIN | MIA | CLE | TEN | TB | OAK | NYG | PHI | AZ | 55 | 8 | 55 | 52.3% |
Jason Wood | SEA | JAX | NO | PIT | NYJ | MIN | MIA | CLE | ATL | TB | SD | DAL | PHI | AZ | 48 | 8 | 62 | 59% |
Mark Wimer | SF | JAX | INDY | PIT | NYJ | DET | MIA | STL | ATL | WASH | OAK | NYG | CAR | AZ | 42 | 8 | 54 | 51.4% |
Maurile Tremblay | SF | BUF | NO | PIT | NYJ | MIN | HOU | STL | TEN | TB | OAK | DAL | PHI | AZ | 49 | 8 | 55 | 52.3% |
Dan Hindery | SEA | JAX | INDY | PIT | NE | MIN | MIA | CLE | TEN | TB | SD | NYG | PHI | BAL | 43 | 7 | 47 | 44.7% |
Justin Bonnema | SF | BUF | INDY | PIT | NYJ | DET | MIA | STL | ATL | TB | SD | NYG | CAR | AZ | 48 | 7 | 62 | 59% |
Justin Howe | SF | JAX | NO | KC | NYJ | DET | HOU | CLE | TEN | WASH | OAK | DAL | CAR | BAL | 48 | 7 | 56 | 53.3% |
Andrew Garda | SF | BUF | INDY | PIT | NYJ | MIN | MIA | STL | ATL | WASH | SD | DAL | CAR | AZ | 40 | 6 | 51 | 48.5% |
Danny Tuccitto | SF | BUF | NO | PIT | NYJ | MIN | MIA | CLE | ATL | WASH | OAK | DAL | PHI | AZ | 49 | 6 | 53 | 50.4% |
James Brimacombe | SEA | JAX | INDY | PIT | NE | DET | MIA | STL | ATL | TB | SD | DAL | PHI | AZ | 52 | 6 | 42 | 40% |
Matt Bitonti | SEA | BUF | NO | KC | NYJ | DET | MIA | STL | ATL | WASH | SD | DAL | PHI | BAL | 50 | 6 | 57 | 54.2% |
William Grant | SEA | BUF | INDY | PIT | NYJ | DET | MIA | STL | ATL | WASH | SD | DAL | CAR | AZ | 48 | 6 | 55 | 52.3% |
Jeff Haseley | SF | BUF | NO | PIT | NYJ | DET | HOU | STL | ATL | WASH | SD | DAL | CAR | AZ | 48 | 5 | 46 | 43.8% |
Steve Holloway | SF | BUF | INDY | PIT | NYJ | DET | MIA | STL | ATL | TB | SD | DAL | CAR | BAL | 45 | 5 | 44 | 41.9% |
Alessandro Miglio | SF | BUF | INDY | KC | NYJ | DET | MIA | CLE | ATL | WASH | SD | DAL | CAR | BAL | 48 | 4 | 51 | 48.5% |
John Lee picked up the win in Week 7, nailing 10 of 14 games. Four more staffers hit nine games right, finishing one step behind John. The entire group did well for the week, winning Week 7 overall (167-155, 51.9%) but not enough to have a winning week in Las Vegas. Unexpected performances by Pittsburgh (18), Atlanta (17) and Dallas (16) provided 51 of those losses, hurting the group as a whole. That put the staff right around 50% correct picks for the year at 1,225-1,190 (50.7%). Here's hoping Week 8 plays out a little better for the group as a whole.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | MIA | DET | CIN | TB | NYG | MIN | AZ | SD | SF | TEN | NYJ | SEA | GB | INDY | |
Home Team: | NE | KC | PIT | ATL | NO | CHI | CLE | BAL | STL | HOU | OAK | DAL | DEN | CAR | |
Favorite: | NE | KC | CIN | ATL | NO | MIN | AZ | BAL | STL | HOU | NYJ | SEA | GB | CAR | |
Point Spread: | -7.5 | -5.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -8.5 | -0.5 | -2.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | NE | DET | CIN | ATL | NYG | MIN | AZ | SD | STL | HOU | NYJ | SEA | GB | INDY | 51 |
Aaron Rudnicki | MIA | DET | CIN | TB | NO | MIN | AZ | SD | STL | HOU | NYJ | SEA | GB | INDY | 40 |
Alessandro Miglio | MIA | DET | PIT | ATL | NO | MIN | AZ | SD | SF | HOU | OAK | DAL | DEN | CAR | 45 |
Andrew Garda | MIA | DET | CIN | ATL | NYG | MIN | AZ | SD | SF | HOU | NYJ | SEA | GB | INDY | 45 |
Andy Hicks | MIA | DET | CIN | TB | NYG | MIN | AZ | SD | SF | TEN | OAK | SEA | GB | INDY | 59 |
Bear Heiser | MIA | DET | PIT | ATL | NO | CHI | AZ | SD | STL | HOU | OAK | SEA | GB | INDY | 54 |
Chris Feery | MIA | DET | CIN | ATL | NYG | CHI | AZ | BAL | STL | TEN | NYJ | DAL | GB | CAR | 45 |
Clayton Gray | MIA | DET | PIT | ATL | NO | MIN | AZ | SD | STL | HOU | NYJ | SEA | DEN | CAR | 45 |
Dan Hindery | MIA | DET | PIT | ATL | NYG | CHI | AZ | BAL | STL | TEN | NYJ | SEA | DEN | CAR | 41 |
Dave Larkin | NE | DET | PIT | TB | NO | CHI | CLE | BAL | SF | HOU | NYJ | SEA | DEN | CAR | 51 |
James Brimacombe | MIA | DET | PIT | TB | NYG | MIN | AZ | SD | STL | HOU | NYJ | SEA | GB | INDY | 57 |
Jason Wood | MIA | DET | PIT | ATL | NO | MIN | AZ | SD | SF | HOU | NYJ | SEA | GB | INDY | 48 |
Jeff Haseley | NE | KC | PIT | TB | NO | CHI | CLE | SD | SF | TEN | OAK | DAL | DEN | CAR | 43 |
John Lee | MIA | KC | PIT | TB | NYG | CHI | CLE | BAL | STL | HOU | NYJ | DAL | DEN | INDY | 43 |
Justin Bonnema | MIA | KC | PIT | TB | NO | CHI | AZ | SD | STL | HOU | NYJ | SEA | GB | INDY | 54 |
Justin Howe | MIA | DET | PIT | TB | NYG | CHI | AZ | SD | SF | HOU | OAK | DAL | DEN | INDY | 47 |
Mark Wimer | MIA | DET | CIN | ATL | NO | MIN | AZ | SD | STL | HOU | OAK | DAL | GB | CAR | 45 |
Matt Bitonti | MIA | DET | CIN | ATL | NO | MIN | AZ | BAL | SF | HOU | OAK | DAL | GB | CAR | 48 |
Maurile Tremblay | MIA | KC | PIT | TB | NYG | CHI | AZ | SD | STL | TEN | NYJ | DAL | DEN | CAR | 40 |
Phil Alexander | NE | KC | PIT | TB | NYG | CHI | CLE | SD | SF | HOU | NYJ | SEA | GB | INDY | 45 |
Steve Holloway | MIA | DET | PIT | TB | NYG | MIN | AZ | BAL | SF | TEN | OAK | SEA | GB | CAR | 51 |
William Grant | NE | DET | CIN | TB | NO | MIN | AZ | SD | STL | HOU | NYJ | DAL | GB | CAR | 44 |
Danny Tuccitto | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Seven weeks are now behind us, so you would think that there would be some sort of better understanding of who are the dominant teams – but you would never know it from looking at the 22 sets of picks this week (one staffer is a little behind schedule). No team was picked unanimously, but the closest was Arizona with 18 of 22 picks as the Cardinals visit Cleveland this week. The 5.5 points feel like not enough for Cleveland to keep the game within a touchdown, and most of the staff agreed with that assessment. The next closest were Ne England and Detroit where 17 of the 22 staff each took the underdogs in these contests. I for one faded Miami as I think that the 8.5-point spread is a sucker bet as the Patriots should be favored by 11 according to what I see. I did go with Detroit vs. Kansas City in London as there is not a clear home team in this one. The next most common pick was Houston (16 of 22) but that is more due to CBS Sports using a bad line of 0.5 points instead of the Las Vegas consensus of a 4-point spread. San Diego rounded out the Top 5 picks as 16 of 22 staff also went with the Chargers over the hapless Ravens. No other team was picked more than 14 times. Las Vegas would love these sets of picks with five games nearly dead even (Atlanta / Tampa Bay, New Orleans / New York Giants, Minnesota / Chicago, San Francisco / St. Louis and Carolina / Indianapolis) as the choices were split almost exactly in half for both contests. It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are getting deeper into the season so we should know more, but picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 52.3% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.