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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | ATL | AZ | WASH | CHI | CIN | HOU | DEN | KC | MIA | CAR | SD | BAL | NE | NYG | ||||
Home Team: | NO | PIT | NYJ | DET | BUF | JAX | CLE | MIN | TEN | SEA | GB | SF | INDY | PHI | ||||
Favorite: | ATL | AZ | NYJ | DET | CIN | HOU | DEN | MIN | TEN | SEA | GB | BAL | NE | PHI | ||||
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -4.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | -9.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | ||||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | Win% | |||||||||||||
Justin Bonnema | NO | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | HOU | DEN | MIN | MIA | CAR | SD | BAL | INDY | PHI | 52 | 11 | 55 | 60.4% |
Matt Bitonti | NO | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | HOU | CLE | MIN | MIA | CAR | GB | SF | NE | PHI | 52 | 11 | 51 | 56.0% |
Andy Hicks | ATL | AZ | WASH | CHI | CIN | HOU | CLE | MIN | MIA | CAR | SD | BAL | INDY | PHI | 59 | 10 | 50 | 54.9% |
Clayton Gray | ATL | PIT | NYJ | DET | CIN | JAX | CLE | MIN | MIA | CAR | GB | SF | NE | PHI | 51 | 9 | 47 | 51.6% |
Jason Wood | NO | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | JAX | DEN | MIN | MIA | CAR | SD | BAL | NE | PHI | 49 | 9 | 54 | 59.3% |
Dan Hindery | ATL | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | HOU | CLE | KC | MIA | CAR | GB | BAL | INDY | NYG | 55 | 8 | 40 | 43.9% |
Justin Howe | ATL | PIT | WASH | CHI | CIN | JAX | CLE | MIN | TEN | CAR | SD | SF | NE | NYG | 49 | 8 | 49 | 53.8% |
Jeff Pasquino | ATL | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | HOU | DEN | MIN | MIA | SEA | GB | BAL | NE | PHI | 58 | 7 | 46 | 50.5% |
Alessandro Miglio | ATL | PIT | WASH | DET | CIN | JAX | DEN | MIN | MIA | CAR | SD | BAL | NE | PHI | 52 | 7 | 47 | 51.6% |
Bear Heiser | ATL | AZ | WASH | CHI | CIN | JAX | CLE | MIN | MIA | CAR | GB | SF | NE | NYG | 48 | 7 | 44 | 48.3% |
John Lee | NO | PIT | NYJ | CHI | CIN | HOU | DEN | KC | TEN | SEA | GB | SF | NE | NYG | 48 | 7 | 48 | 52.7% |
Maurile Tremblay | ATL | PIT | NYJ | CHI | BUF | JAX | CLE | KC | TEN | CAR | SD | BAL | INDY | NYG | 42 | 7 | 47 | 51.6% |
Phil Alexander | NO | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | HOU | DEN | MIN | TEN | SEA | GB | SF | NE | NYG | 50 | 7 | 48 | 52.7% |
Steve Holloway | ATL | AZ | NYJ | DET | CIN | JAX | DEN | MIN | MIA | CAR | SD | BAL | NE | PHI | 44 | 7 | 39 | 42.8% |
Aaron Rudnicki | ATL | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | JAX | DEN | MIN | MIA | CAR | GB | BAL | NE | NYG | 48 | 6 | 40 | 43.9% |
Dave Larkin | NO | AZ | WASH | CHI | CIN | JAX | DEN | MIN | TEN | CAR | SD | BAL | NE | NYG | 58 | 6 | 47 | 51.6% |
Jeff Haseley | ATL | PIT | WASH | DET | CIN | HOU | DEN | KC | TEN | CAR | SD | BAL | INDY | NYG | 49 | 6 | 41 | 45.0% |
Mark Wimer | ATL | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | JAX | CLE | MIN | TEN | CAR | GB | BAL | NE | NYG | 58 | 6 | 46 | 50.5% |
Andrew Garda | ATL | AZ | WASH | CHI | CIN | HOU | CLE | MIN | TEN | SEA | GB | BAL | NE | NYG | 40 | 5 | 45 | 49.4% |
Chris Feery | ATL | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | JAX | DEN | KC | TEN | CAR | SD | BAL | NE | NYG | 49 | 5 | 42 | 46.1% |
Danny Tuccitto | ATL | PIT | WASH | CHI | CIN | JAX | CLE | KC | TEN | CAR | GB | BAL | NE | NYG | 49 | 5 | 47 | 51.6% |
William Grant | ATL | AZ | NYJ | DET | CIN | JAX | DEN | MIN | MIA | CAR | GB | BAL | NE | NYG | 51 | 5 | 49 | 53.8% |
James Brimacombe | ATL | PIT | WASH | CHI | BUF | JAX | DEN | KC | MIA | SEA | GB | SF | NE | NYG | 54 | 4 | 36 | 39.5% |
Justin Bonnema sits atop the standings again this week with 11 out of a possible 14 picks correct, but he is not alone in Week 6. Matt Bitonti tied Justin with 11 of 14 right, and both of them were rather high on the Monday Night Football total of 52 points (it was only 34), so they tied atop the weekly standings. Andy Hicks finished third as he was just one step behind with 10 wins. The entire group did just OK in Week 5, winning the week overall (163-159, 50.6%) but not enough to have a winning week in Las Vegas. Unexpected performances by Atlanta (17), Arizona (15), Baltimore (16), New England (18), and the New York Giants (15) provided 8` of those losses, hurting the group as a whole. That put the staff right around 50% correct picks for the year at 1058-1035 (50.5%). Here's hoping Week 7 plays out a little better for the group as a whole.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | SEA | BUF | NO | PIT | NYJ | MIN | HOU | CLE | ATL | TB | OAK | DAL | PHI | BAL | |
Home Team: | SF | JAX | INDY | KC | NE | DET | MIA | STL | TEN | WASH | SD | NYG | CAR | AZ | |
Favorite: | SEA | BUF | INDY | PIT | NE | MIN | MIA | STL | ATL | WASH | SD | NYG | CAR | AZ | |
Point Spread: | -6.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -9.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | SEA | JAX | INDY | PIT | NYJ | MIN | HOU | STL | ATL | TB | SD | DAL | CAR | AZ | 54 |
Aaron Rudnicki | SEA | JAX | NO | PIT | NYJ | MIN | MIA | STL | ATL | TB | OAK | DAL | PHI | BAL | 42 |
Alessandro Miglio | SF | BUF | INDY | KC | NYJ | DET | MIA | CLE | ATL | WASH | SD | DAL | CAR | BAL | 48 |
Andrew Garda | SF | BUF | INDY | PIT | NYJ | MIN | MIA | STL | ATL | WASH | SD | DAL | CAR | AZ | 40 |
Andy Hicks | SEA | JAX | INDY | KC | NE | MIN | MIA | CLE | ATL | TB | OAK | DAL | PHI | AZ | 51 |
Bear Heiser | SEA | JAX | NO | PIT | NYJ | DET | HOU | STL | ATL | TB | OAK | NYG | CAR | BAL | 46 |
Chris Feery | SF | JAX | NO | PIT | NYJ | MIN | HOU | CLE | ATL | TB | OAK | DAL | CAR | AZ | 49 |
Clayton Gray | SEA | JAX | INDY | PIT | NYJ | MIN | MIA | STL | ATL | WASH | SD | NYG | CAR | AZ | 45 |
Dan Hindery | SEA | JAX | INDY | PIT | NE | MIN | MIA | CLE | TEN | TB | SD | NYG | PHI | BAL | 43 |
Danny Tuccitto | SF | BUF | NO | PIT | NYJ | MIN | MIA | CLE | ATL | WASH | OAK | DAL | PHI | AZ | 49 |
Dave Larkin | SF | BUF | INDY | PIT | NYJ | MIN | MIA | CLE | TEN | TB | OAK | NYG | PHI | AZ | 55 |
James Brimacombe | SEA | JAX | INDY | PIT | NE | DET | MIA | STL | ATL | TB | SD | DAL | PHI | AZ | 52 |
Jason Wood | SEA | JAX | NO | PIT | NYJ | MIN | MIA | CLE | ATL | TB | SD | DAL | PHI | AZ | 48 |
Jeff Haseley | SF | BUF | NO | PIT | NYJ | DET | HOU | STL | ATL | WASH | SD | DAL | CAR | AZ | 48 |
John Lee | SEA | JAX | NO | PIT | NYJ | DET | MIA | STL | TEN | TB | SD | DAL | CAR | AZ | 42 |
Justin Bonnema | SF | BUF | INDY | PIT | NYJ | DET | MIA | STL | ATL | TB | SD | NYG | CAR | AZ | 48 |
Justin Howe | SF | JAX | NO | KC | NYJ | DET | HOU | CLE | TEN | WASH | OAK | DAL | CAR | BAL | 48 |
Mark Wimer | SF | JAX | INDY | PIT | NYJ | DET | MIA | STL | ATL | WASH | OAK | NYG | CAR | AZ | 42 |
Matt Bitonti | SEA | BUF | NO | KC | NYJ | DET | MIA | STL | ATL | WASH | SD | DAL | PHI | BAL | 50 |
Maurile Tremblay | SF | BUF | NO | PIT | NYJ | MIN | HOU | STL | TEN | TB | OAK | DAL | PHI | AZ | 49 |
Phil Alexander | SEA | BUF | INDY | KC | NYJ | DET | MIA | STL | TEN | WASH | OAK | NYG | PHI | AZ | 50 |
Steve Holloway | SF | BUF | INDY | PIT | NYJ | DET | MIA | STL | ATL | TB | SD | DAL | CAR | BAL | 45 |
William Grant | SEA | BUF | INDY | PIT | NYJ | DET | MIA | STL | ATL | WASH | SD | DAL | CAR | AZ | 48 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Six weeks are now behind us, so you would think that there would be some sort of better understanding of who are the dominant teams – but you would never know it from looking at the 23 sets of picks this week. No team was picked unanimously, but the closest was the Jets with 20 of 23 picks as New York visits New England. The 9.5 points feel like a lot, and most of the staff agreed with that assessment. The next closest was Pittsburgh (18 of 23) on the road at Kansas City, but some of that has to be the strange early point spread with no certainty about who will be under center for the Steelers and questions on Jeremy Maclin's availability due to a concussion. Miami (17), Atlanta (17), Dallas (16) and Arizona (16) round out the next most frequent selections. Las Vegas would love these sets of picks with three games nearly dead even (Seattle / San Francisco, Buffalo / Jacksonville and Minnesota / Detroit) as the choices were split almost exactly in half for both contests. It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are getting deeper into the season so we should know more, but picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 52.3% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.