Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | INDY | WASH | CHI | CLE | SEA | JAX | NO | STL | BUF | AZ | DEN | NE | SF | PIT | ||||
Home Team: | HOU | ATL | KC | BAL | CIN | TB | PHI | GB | TEN | DET | OAK | DAL | NYG | SD | ||||
Favorite: | HOU | ATL | KC | BAL | CIN | TB | PHI | GB | BUF | AZ | DEN | NE | NYG | SD | ||||
Point Spread: | -1.5 | -7.5 | -9.5 | -6.5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -9.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -8.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | ||||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | Win% | |||||||||||||
Justin Bonnema | INDY | WASH | CHI | CLE | SEA | TB | PHI | GB | TEN | AZ | DEN | DAL | SF | SD | 44 | 11 | 44 | 57.1% |
Danny Tuccitto | INDY | WASH | KC | CLE | CIN | JAX | NO | GB | TEN | AZ | DEN | NE | NYG | PIT | 49 | 10 | 42 | 54.5% |
Andrew Garda | INDY | ATL | CHI | CLE | CIN | TB | NO | STL | BUF | AZ | DEN | NE | SF | SD | 40 | 9 | 40 | 51.9% |
Dave Larkin | INDY | ATL | CHI | CLE | CIN | JAX | NO | GB | TEN | DET | DEN | NE | SF | SD | 42 | 9 | 41 | 53.2% |
John Lee | INDY | WASH | CHI | BAL | CIN | JAX | NO | GB | BUF | DET | DEN | NE | SF | PIT | 46 | 9 | 41 | 53.2% |
Phil Alexander | INDY | ATL | KC | CLE | SEA | JAX | PHI | GB | TEN | AZ | DEN | NE | SF | SD | 45 | 9 | 41 | 53.2% |
Aaron Rudnicki | HOU | WASH | CHI | CLE | CIN | JAX | NO | STL | BUF | DET | DEN | NE | SF | PIT | 44 | 8 | 34 | 44.1% |
Jason Wood | INDY | WASH | CHI | BAL | SEA | JAX | NO | STL | BUF | AZ | DEN | NE | SF | PIT | 48 | 8 | 45 | 58.4% |
Justin Howe | HOU | WASH | CHI | CLE | CIN | JAX | NO | STL | TEN | DET | DEN | DAL | SF | PIT | 45 | 8 | 41 | 53.2% |
Maurile Tremblay | HOU | WASH | CHI | CLE | CIN | JAX | NO | STL | TEN | AZ | OAK | DAL | SF | PIT | 49 | 8 | 40 | 51.9% |
William Grant | INDY | ATL | CHI | CLE | CIN | JAX | NO | GB | BUF | AZ | DEN | NE | NYG | SD | 42 | 8 | 44 | 57.1% |
Jeff Pasquino | INDY | ATL | CHI | BAL | CIN | JAX | NO | GB | BUF | AZ | DEN | NE | NYG | SD | 47 | 7 | 39 | 50.6% |
Chris Feery | INDY | ATL | CHI | CLE | CIN | JAX | NO | STL | BUF | AZ | DEN | NE | NYG | SD | 46 | 7 | 37 | 48% |
James Brimacombe | HOU | WASH | CHI | CLE | SEA | JAX | NO | STL | BUF | DET | DEN | NE | SF | PIT | 54 | 7 | 32 | 41.5% |
Bear Heiser | HOU | ATL | CHI | BAL | CIN | JAX | PHI | STL | TEN | AZ | OAK | NE | NYG | SD | 46 | 6 | 37 | 48% |
Mark Wimer | HOU | ATL | KC | CLE | SEA | JAX | PHI | GB | BUF | AZ | DEN | DAL | NYG | PIT | 48 | 6 | 40 | 51.9% |
Matt Bitonti | HOU | WASH | KC | BAL | CIN | JAX | PHI | GB | BUF | AZ | OAK | DAL | NYG | PIT | 45 | 6 | 40 | 51.9% |
Alessandro Miglio | INDY | WASH | CHI | BAL | SEA | JAX | NO | STL | BUF | AZ | OAK | NE | NYG | SD | 50 | 5 | 40 | 51.9% |
Andy Hicks | HOU | WASH | CHI | BAL | CIN | JAX | NO | STL | BUF | AZ | OAK | DAL | NYG | PIT | 55 | 5 | 40 | 51.9% |
Clayton Gray | HOU | ATL | CHI | BAL | CIN | JAX | PHI | STL | BUF | DET | OAK | NE | SF | SD | 49 | 5 | 38 | 49.3% |
Dan Hindery | HOU | WASH | KC | BAL | CIN | JAX | NO | STL | TEN | DET | DEN | NE | NYG | SD | 51 | 5 | 32 | 41.5% |
Jeff Haseley | INDY | ATL | KC | BAL | SEA | JAX | PHI | STL | BUF | AZ | DEN | DAL | NYG | PIT | 48 | 5 | 35 | 45.4% |
Steve Holloway | HOU | ATL | KC | BAL | CIN | JAX | NO | STL | BUF | AZ | OAK | NE | SF | SD | 44 | 4 | 32 | 41.5% |
Justin Bonnema won for the first time in Week 5, racking up 11 out of a possible 14 correct. Danny Tuccitto was just one step behind with 10 wins. The entire group did just OK in Week 5, winning the week overall (165-157, 51.2%) but not enough to have a winning week in Las Vegas. Unexpected performances by Jacksonville (19), New Orleans (16), St. Louis (14) and Buffalo (15) provided 64 of those losses, hurting the group as a whole. That put the staff right around 50% correct picks for the year at 895-876 (50.5%). Here's hoping Week 6 plays out a little better for the group as a whole.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | ATL | AZ | WASH | CHI | CIN | HOU | DEN | KC | MIA | CAR | SD | BAL | NE | NYG | |
Home Team: | NO | PIT | NYJ | DET | BUF | JAX | CLE | MIN | TEN | SEA | GB | SF | INDY | PHI | |
Favorite: | ATL | AZ | NYJ | DET | CIN | HOU | DEN | MIN | TEN | SEA | GB | BAL | NE | PHI | |
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -4.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | -9.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | ATL | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | HOU | DEN | MIN | MIA | SEA | GB | BAL | NE | PHI | 58 |
Aaron Rudnicki | ATL | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | JAX | DEN | MIN | MIA | CAR | GB | BAL | NE | NYG | 48 |
Alessandro Miglio | ATL | PIT | WASH | DET | CIN | JAX | DEN | MIN | MIA | CAR | SD | BAL | NE | PHI | 52 |
Andrew Garda | ATL | AZ | WASH | CHI | CIN | HOU | CLE | MIN | TEN | SEA | GB | BAL | NE | NYG | 40 |
Andy Hicks | ATL | AZ | WASH | CHI | CIN | HOU | CLE | MIN | MIA | CAR | SD | BAL | INDY | PHI | 59 |
Bear Heiser | ATL | AZ | WASH | CHI | CIN | JAX | CLE | MIN | MIA | CAR | GB | SF | NE | NYG | 48 |
Chris Feery | ATL | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | JAX | DEN | KC | TEN | CAR | SD | BAL | NE | NYG | 49 |
Clayton Gray | ATL | PIT | NYJ | DET | CIN | JAX | CLE | MIN | MIA | CAR | GB | SF | NE | PHI | 51 |
Dan Hindery | ATL | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | HOU | CLE | KC | MIA | CAR | GB | BAL | INDY | NYG | 55 |
Danny Tuccitto | ATL | PIT | WASH | CHI | CIN | JAX | CLE | KC | TEN | CAR | GB | BAL | NE | NYG | 49 |
Dave Larkin | NO | AZ | WASH | CHI | CIN | JAX | DEN | MIN | TEN | CAR | SD | BAL | NE | NYG | 58 |
James Brimacombe | ATL | PIT | WASH | CHI | BUF | JAX | DEN | KC | MIA | SEA | GB | SF | NE | NYG | 54 |
Jason Wood | NO | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | JAX | DEN | MIN | MIA | CAR | SD | BAL | NE | PHI | 49 |
Jeff Haseley | ATL | PIT | WASH | DET | CIN | HOU | DEN | KC | TEN | CAR | SD | BAL | INDY | NYG | 49 |
John Lee | NO | PIT | NYJ | CHI | CIN | HOU | DEN | KC | TEN | SEA | GB | SF | NE | NYG | 48 |
Justin Bonnema | NO | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | HOU | DEN | MIN | MIA | CAR | SD | BAL | INDY | PHI | 52 |
Justin Howe | ATL | PIT | WASH | CHI | CIN | JAX | CLE | MIN | TEN | CAR | SD | SF | NE | NYG | 49 |
Mark Wimer | ATL | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | JAX | CLE | MIN | TEN | CAR | GB | BAL | NE | NYG | 58 |
Matt Bitonti | NO | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | HOU | CLE | MIN | MIA | CAR | GB | SF | NE | PHI | 52 |
Maurile Tremblay | ATL | PIT | NYJ | CHI | BUF | JAX | CLE | KC | TEN | CAR | SD | BAL | INDY | NYG | 42 |
Phil Alexander | NO | AZ | NYJ | CHI | CIN | HOU | DEN | MIN | TEN | SEA | GB | SF | NE | NYG | 50 |
Steve Holloway | ATL | AZ | NYJ | DET | CIN | JAX | DEN | MIN | MIA | CAR | SD | BAL | NE | PHI | 51 |
William Grant | ATL | AZ | NYJ | DET | CIN | JAX | DEN | MIN | MIA | CAR | GB | BAL | NE | NYG | 51 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Five weeks are now behind us, so you would think that there would be some sort of better understanding of who are the dominant teams – but you would never know it from looking at the 23 sets of picks this week. No team was picked unanimously, and the closest was Cincinnati (21 of 23) on the road at Buffalo. Clearly that reflects the news that Tyrod Taylor is out this week. New England comes in next with 18 selections as most of the staff thinks that they roll all over Indianapolis in Week 6. Chicago is tied with New England with 18 picks for the Bears as no one believes in Detrioit right now. Atlanta (17), Minnesota (16), Baltimore (16) and the New York Giants (15) round out the next most frequent selections. Las Vegas would love these sets of picks with three games nearly dead even (Denver / Cleveland, Tennessee / Miami and Green Bay / San Diego) as the choices were split almost exactly in half for both contests. It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are getting deeper into the season so we should know more, but picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 52.3% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.