Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | SD | WASH | HOU | PIT | NE | CAR | INDY | DAL | CLE | SF | CHI | JAX | STL | GB | NYG | CIN | ||||
Home Team: | OAK | PHI | TEN | BAL | NYJ | ATL | MIA | BUF | KC | DET | TB | NO | SEA | AZ | MIN | DEN | ||||
Favorite: | OAK | PHI | HOU | PIT | NE | CAR | MIA | BUF | KC | DET | TB | NO | SEA | AZ | MIN | DEN | ||||
Point Spread: | -5.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -10.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -12.5 | -8.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -13.5 | -4.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | ||||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | Win% | |||||||||||||||
Clayton Gray | OAK | WASH | HOU | BAL | NYJ | ATL | INDY | BUF | CLE | DET | TB | JAX | SEA | AZ | MIN | DEN | 41 | 11 | 120 | 50.0% |
Andy Hicks | OAK | WASH | HOU | PIT | NYJ | ATL | INDY | BUF | CLE | SF | CHI | JAX | STL | AZ | NYG | CIN | 55 | 11 | 125 | 52.0% |
Danny Tuccitto | OAK | WASH | HOU | BAL | NYJ | ATL | INDY | BUF | KC | DET | CHI | JAX | SEA | GB | MIN | CIN | 49 | 11 | 123 | 51.2% |
John Lee | SD | WASH | HOU | BAL | NYJ | CAR | INDY | BUF | KC | SF | CHI | JAX | STL | AZ | MIN | DEN | 44 | 11 | 127 | 52.9% |
Justin Howe | SD | WASH | HOU | BAL | NYJ | ATL | INDY | DAL | KC | SF | TB | NO | STL | AZ | NYG | CIN | 42 | 11 | 134 | 55.8% |
Jeff Pasquino | SD | WASH | HOU | PIT | NE | CAR | INDY | BUF | KC | DET | TB | JAX | SEA | AZ | MIN | CIN | 47 | 9 | 121 | 50.4% |
Alessandro Miglio | OAK | PHI | HOU | BAL | NE | CAR | INDY | DAL | CLE | DET | TB | NO | STL | AZ | MIN | DEN | 47 | 9 | 127 | 52.9% |
Bear Heiser | SD | WASH | HOU | PIT | NYJ | CAR | MIA | BUF | KC | DET | CHI | JAX | SEA | AZ | MIN | DEN | 42 | 9 | 121 | 50.4% |
Dan Hindery | SD | WASH | HOU | PIT | NYJ | CAR | MIA | BUF | CLE | DET | TB | JAX | SEA | AZ | MIN | DEN | 36 | 9 | 116 | 48.3% |
Dave Larkin | OAK | WASH | HOU | BAL | NE | ATL | MIA | BUF | KC | DET | TB | NO | SEA | GB | MIN | CIN | 45 | 9 | 126 | 52.5% |
Matt Bitonti | OAK | PHI | HOU | BAL | NYJ | CAR | INDY | BUF | CLE | DET | TB | JAX | STL | GB | MIN | DEN | 48 | 9 | 120 | 50.0% |
Chris Feery | OAK | WASH | HOU | PIT | NYJ | ATL | INDY | DAL | KC | SF | CHI | JAX | SEA | AZ | NYG | CIN | 42 | 8 | 119 | 49.5% |
Mark Wimer | OAK | WASH | HOU | PIT | NYJ | CAR | MIA | BUF | CLE | DET | TB | JAX | SEA | AZ | MIN | DEN | 37 | 8 | 117 | 48.7% |
Maurile Tremblay | SD | PHI | TEN | PIT | NE | ATL | MIA | DAL | KC | DET | CHI | JAX | STL | AZ | MIN | CIN | 41 | 8 | 124 | 51.6% |
Steve Holloway | OAK | PHI | HOU | BAL | NE | ATL | INDY | BUF | CLE | DET | TB | JAX | STL | GB | NYG | DEN | 40 | 8 | 109 | 45.4% |
Andrew Garda | OAK | WASH | HOU | PIT | NE | CAR | INDY | DAL | CLE | DET | TB | JAX | SEA | AZ | MIN | DEN | 40 | 7 | 120 | 50.0% |
James Brimacombe | SD | WASH | HOU | PIT | NE | CAR | INDY | DAL | CLE | DET | CHI | JAX | SEA | GB | NYG | DEN | 55 | 7 | 115 | 47.9% |
Jeff Haseley | OAK | WASH | TEN | PIT | NYJ | ATL | MIA | BUF | CLE | DET | TB | JAX | SEA | GB | MIN | DEN | 44 | 7 | 111 | 46.2% |
Justin Bonnema | SD | WASH | TEN | PIT | NYJ | CAR | MIA | DAL | CLE | SF | CHI | NO | SEA | GB | MIN | DEN | 48 | 7 | 128 | 53.3% |
Aaron Rudnicki | OAK | WASH | TEN | PIT | NE | ATL | INDY | DAL | KC | DET | CHI | JAX | SEA | GB | MIN | DEN | 44 | 6 | 118 | 49.1% |
Jason Wood | OAK | PHI | HOU | PIT | NE | ATL | INDY | DAL | KC | DET | CHI | JAX | STL | GB | NYG | DEN | 46 | 6 | 130 | 54.1% |
Phil Alexander | SD | PHI | HOU | BAL | NE | ATL | INDY | DAL | KC | SF | TB | JAX | SEA | GB | MIN | DEN | 33 | 6 | 133 | 55.4% |
William Grant | OAK | WASH | HOU | PIT | NE | CAR | MIA | DAL | KC | DET | TB | JAX | STL | AZ | MIN | DEN | 47 | 6 | 123 | 51.2% |
Clayton Gray pulled out his second victory this year will 11 out of 14 right, beating the four others with 11 right due to his lowest total of 41 points (MNF was 20-17, so the total was 37). The staff did very well overall with everyone getting at least six games right and over half getting eight or more. That resulted in a solid Week 16 showing on another challenging weekend. The entire group finished 18 games above .500 (193-175, 52.4%). The good results kept the staff above 50% correct picks for the year at 2,807-2,713 (50.9%), which is not quite enough for the entire staff to be beating Las Vegas. Here's hoping that the winning ways continue for the final week of the season.
As far as the overall standings, it appears to be a three-man race between Justin Howe (134 correct picks), Phil Alexander (133) and Jason Wood (130). Week 17 is always a tough week, so it will be intersting to see how these guys fare, as well as the rest of the staff.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | WASH | NYJ | TEN | BAL | NE | DET | PIT | JAX | PHI | NO | SD | STL | OAK | TB | SEA | MIN | |
Home Team: | DAL | BUF | INDY | CIN | MIA | CHI | CLE | HOU | NYG | ATL | DEN | SF | KC | CAR | AZ | GB | |
Favorite: | DAL | NYJ | INDY | CIN | NE | CHI | PIT | HOU | NYG | ATL | DEN | STL | KC | CAR | AZ | GB | |
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -7.5 | -9.5 | -1.5 | -10.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -10.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | WASH | NYJ | INDY | CIN | NE | DET | PIT | HOU | NYG | ATL | DEN | STL | KC | CAR | SEA | MIN | 51 |
Aaron Rudnicki | DAL | BUF | TEN | BAL | MIA | DET | PIT | HOU | NYG | ATL | DEN | STL | OAK | TB | SEA | MIN | 42 |
Alessandro Miglio | WASH | BUF | TEN | BAL | MIA | CHI | CLE | JAX | NYG | ATL | DEN | STL | KC | TB | AZ | GB | 49 |
Andrew Garda | WASH | NYJ | INDY | CIN | NE | DET | CLE | HOU | NYG | NO | DEN | STL | KC | TB | AZ | GB | 50 |
Andy Hicks | WASH | NYJ | TEN | BAL | NE | DET | PIT | HOU | PHI | NO | DEN | STL | KC | TB | AZ | MIN | 39 |
Bear Heiser | WASH | NYJ | TEN | CIN | NE | DET | PIT | JAX | NYG | NO | SD | STL | KC | CAR | AZ | MIN | 48 |
Chris Feery | DAL | NYJ | TEN | CIN | NE | CHI | PIT | HOU | PHI | NO | SD | STL | OAK | CAR | AZ | MIN | 42 |
Clayton Gray | WASH | NYJ | INDY | CIN | MIA | CHI | CLE | HOU | NYG | ATL | SD | STL | KC | CAR | AZ | MIN | 53 |
Dan Hindery | DAL | BUF | TEN | BAL | NE | CHI | PIT | HOU | PHI | NO | DEN | STL | KC | TB | SEA | MIN | 40 |
Danny Tuccitto | WASH | BUF | INDY | BAL | NE | CHI | CLE | HOU | PHI | NO | SD | SF | KC | TB | SEA | MIN | 49 |
Dave Larkin | WASH | BUF | TEN | CIN | NE | DET | PIT | JAX | NYG | NO | DEN | STL | OAK | TB | SEA | MIN | 37 |
James Brimacombe | WASH | BUF | TEN | CIN | MIA | DET | PIT | JAX | NYG | ATL | DEN | SF | OAK | CAR | SEA | MIN | 51 |
Jason Wood | DAL | NYJ | TEN | BAL | MIA | DET | PIT | JAX | PHI | NO | DEN | STL | KC | TB | AZ | MIN | 46 |
Jeff Haseley | WASH | BUF | TEN | BAL | MIA | DET | CLE | JAX | PHI | ATL | SD | SF | OAK | TB | SEA | MIN | 45 |
John Lee | DAL | NYJ | TEN | CIN | NE | DET | PIT | HOU | PHI | NO | DEN | SF | OAK | TB | AZ | GB | 47 |
Justin Bonnema | WASH | NYJ | TEN | CIN | MIA | DET | PIT | JAX | NYG | ATL | SD | SF | OAK | TB | AZ | GB | 52 |
Justin Howe | WASH | NYJ | TEN | BAL | MIA | DET | CLE | HOU | PHI | NO | DEN | STL | KC | TB | SEA | GB | 46 |
Mark Wimer | DAL | NYJ | INDY | BAL | NE | DET | PIT | HOU | NYG | NO | DEN | STL | KC | CAR | AZ | MIN | 51 |
Matt Bitonti | WASH | NYJ | INDY | BAL | NE | DET | PIT | HOU | PHI | NO | DEN | STL | KC | CAR | AZ | MIN | 45 |
Maurile Tremblay | DAL | BUF | TEN | CIN | NE | CHI | PIT | HOU | NYG | NO | SD | SF | OAK | TB | SEA | GB | 42 |
Phil Alexander | DAL | BUF | TEN | BAL | NE | DET | CLE | HOU | PHI | NO | DEN | SF | KC | TB | AZ | GB | 37 |
Steve Holloway | WASH | BUF | TEN | BAL | MIA | DET | CLE | JAX | PHI | ATL | DEN | STL | KC | CAR | AZ | MIN | 47 |
William Grant | WASH | NYJ | INDY | CIN | NE | CHI | PIT | JAX | PHI | NO | DEN | STL | KC | CAR | SEA | MIN | 45 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Only Week 17 is left now, and we all know how wacky the final week of the season can be. Just look at the picks this week and how little consensus we have. Only five teams received 16 picks this week, with just two favorites (Denver, St. Louis) and three underdog selections (Tennessee, Detroit, Minnesota) in the mix. Four more teams were next at 15, again mixed amongst favorites (Pittsburgh, Kansas City) and underdogs (Washington, New Orleans). New England, Houston and Tampa Bay received 14 votes, while the Jets and Cardinals barely achieved a majority with 13 selections. Las Vegas would love these sets of picks with two games nearly dead even (Houston / New York Giants / Philadelphia, Cincinnati / Baltimore) as the choices were split almost exactly in half for these contests. It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are nearly done with the regular season so we should know more, but picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 52.3% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.