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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | TB | NYJ | HOU | ATL | BUF | CAR | TEN | CHI | KC | CLE | GB | DEN | CIN | MIA | AZ | DET | ||||
Home Team: | STL | DAL | INDY | JAX | WASH | NYG | NE | MIN | BAL | SEA | OAK | PIT | SF | SD | PHI | NO | ||||
Favorite: | STL | NYJ | INDY | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | MIN | KC | SEA | GB | PIT | CIN | SD | AZ | NO | ||||
Point Spread: | -0.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -0.5 | -4.5 | -14.5 | -5.5 | -7.5 | -14.5 | -2.5 | -6.5 | -4.5 | -0.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | ||||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | Win% | |||||||||||||||
Phil Alexander | TB | DAL | HOU | ATL | WASH | NYG | NE | MIN | KC | SEA | GB | PIT | CIN | MIA | PHI | NO | 50 | 12 | 127 | 56.6% |
Andrew Garda | STL | NYJ | HOU | JAX | WASH | CAR | NE | MIN | KC | SEA | GB | DEN | CIN | MIA | AZ | NO | 70 | 10 | 113 | 50.4% |
Alessandro Miglio | STL | DAL | INDY | JAX | WASH | CAR | TEN | MIN | BAL | CLE | GB | PIT | CIN | SD | AZ | NO | 50 | 9 | 118 | 52.6% |
William Grant | STL | NYJ | HOU | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | MIN | KC | CLE | GB | DEN | CIN | SD | AZ | NO | 51 | 9 | 117 | 52.2% |
Jeff Pasquino | TB | NYJ | HOU | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | MIN | KC | SEA | GB | DEN | CIN | MIA | AZ | NO | 65 | 8 | 112 | 50.0% |
Bear Heiser | TB | NYJ | INDY | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | CHI | KC | SEA | GB | PIT | CIN | MIA | AZ | DET | 64 | 8 | 112 | 50.0% |
Chris Feery | TB | NYJ | HOU | JAX | BUF | NYG | NE | MIN | KC | SEA | OAK | DEN | CIN | MIA | AZ | NO | 49 | 8 | 111 | 49.5% |
Dan Hindery | TB | NYJ | HOU | ATL | WASH | CAR | NE | MIN | KC | CLE | OAK | DEN | CIN | MIA | AZ | NO | 55 | 8 | 107 | 47.7% |
Danny Tuccitto | STL | DAL | INDY | ATL | BUF | NYG | TEN | MIN | BAL | CLE | GB | PIT | SF | SD | PHI | NO | 49 | 8 | 112 | 50.0% |
Dave Larkin | TB | NYJ | HOU | JAX | WASH | NYG | NE | CHI | KC | SEA | GB | DEN | CIN | MIA | PHI | NO | 52 | 8 | 117 | 52.2% |
James Brimacombe | TB | NYJ | HOU | ATL | BUF | CAR | NE | CHI | KC | SEA | GB | DEN | CIN | SD | PHI | NO | 50 | 8 | 108 | 48.2% |
Jeff Haseley | STL | DAL | INDY | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | CHI | BAL | SEA | OAK | DEN | CIN | SD | AZ | DET | 53 | 8 | 104 | 46.4% |
Mark Wimer | TB | NYJ | INDY | JAX | WASH | CAR | NE | MIN | KC | SEA | GB | DEN | CIN | MIA | AZ | NO | 52 | 8 | 109 | 48.6% |
Clayton Gray | STL | NYJ | HOU | JAX | WASH | CAR | NE | CHI | KC | SEA | OAK | DEN | SF | SD | PHI | NO | 52 | 7 | 109 | 48.6% |
Steve Holloway | TB | NYJ | HOU | JAX | WASH | CAR | NE | CHI | KC | CLE | GB | PIT | SF | MIA | AZ | NO | 64 | 7 | 101 | 45.0% |
Jason Wood | TB | NYJ | HOU | JAX | BUF | NYG | TEN | CHI | KC | SEA | OAK | DEN | SF | MIA | AZ | DET | 53 | 6 | 124 | 55.3% |
Justin Bonnema | TB | NYJ | HOU | JAX | WASH | NYG | TEN | CHI | BAL | CLE | GB | PIT | SF | MIA | AZ | NO | 52 | 6 | 121 | 54.0% |
Justin Howe | TB | NYJ | HOU | ATL | BUF | CAR | TEN | CHI | BAL | CLE | GB | DEN | CIN | SD | AZ | NO | 49 | 6 | 123 | 54.9% |
Maurile Tremblay | TB | DAL | HOU | ATL | BUF | CAR | TEN | CHI | BAL | CLE | OAK | DEN | CIN | MIA | AZ | DET | 49 | 6 | 116 | 51.7% |
Aaron Rudnicki | TB | NYJ | INDY | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | MIN | KC | SEA | GB | DEN | SF | MIA | PHI | NO | 46 | 5 | 112 | 50.0% |
Andy Hicks | STL | NYJ | HOU | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | CHI | KC | CLE | OAK | DEN | CIN | MIA | PHI | NO | 61 | 5 | 114 | 50.8% |
John Lee | TB | NYJ | HOU | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | CHI | BAL | CLE | GB | PIT | SF | MIA | AZ | NO | 50 | 5 | 116 | 51.7% |
Matt Bitonti | TB | NYJ | INDY | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | CHI | KC | SEA | OAK | DEN | CIN | MIA | PHI | NO | 49 | 4 | 111 | 49.5% |
Phil Alexander claimed the title in Week 15 with 12 out of 16 correct picks, getting past Andrew Garda by two games. That moved Phil back into first place overall on the year with a record of 127-97, nearly a 57% winning percentage, which is extremely good - but not even 5% above what it takes to beat Las Vegas (52.3%). That just shows you how hard it is to beat Vegas on a consistent basis. Phil leads Jason Wood by three games and Justin Howe by four with two weeks to go.. The staff overall had a pretty bad week in Week 15 with a 169-199 record (45.9%) due to plenty of point spread upsets upsets of New Orleans (19 losses), Jacksonville (17), Carolina (17) and the Jets (16), plus a few bad upset calls with Tampa Bay (16), Denver (16) and Miami (16) not getting the job done. The entire group moved to 2,614-2,538 (50.7%) on the year, which is not quite enough for the entire staff to be beating Las Vegas. Here's hoping that the winning ways improve in Week 16.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | SD | WASH | HOU | PIT | NE | CAR | INDY | DAL | CLE | SF | CHI | JAX | STL | GB | NYG | CIN | |
Home Team: | OAK | PHI | TEN | BAL | NYJ | ATL | MIA | BUF | KC | DET | TB | NO | SEA | AZ | MIN | DEN | |
Favorite: | OAK | PHI | HOU | PIT | NE | CAR | MIA | BUF | KC | DET | TB | NO | SEA | AZ | MIN | DEN | |
Point Spread: | -5.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -10.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -12.5 | -8.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -13.5 | -4.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | SD | WASH | HOU | PIT | NE | CAR | INDY | BUF | KC | DET | TB | JAX | SEA | AZ | MIN | CIN | 47 |
Aaron Rudnicki | OAK | WASH | TEN | PIT | NE | ATL | INDY | DAL | KC | DET | CHI | JAX | SEA | GB | MIN | DEN | 44 |
Alessandro Miglio | OAK | PHI | HOU | BAL | NE | CAR | INDY | DAL | CLE | DET | TB | NO | STL | AZ | MIN | DEN | 47 |
Andrew Garda | OAK | WASH | HOU | PIT | NE | CAR | INDY | DAL | CLE | DET | TB | JAX | SEA | AZ | MIN | DEN | 40 |
Andy Hicks | OAK | WASH | HOU | PIT | NYJ | ATL | INDY | BUF | CLE | SF | CHI | JAX | STL | AZ | NYG | CIN | 55 |
Bear Heiser | SD | WASH | HOU | PIT | NYJ | CAR | MIA | BUF | KC | DET | CHI | JAX | SEA | AZ | MIN | DEN | 42 |
Chris Feery | OAK | WASH | HOU | PIT | NYJ | ATL | INDY | DAL | KC | SF | CHI | JAX | SEA | AZ | NYG | CIN | 42 |
Clayton Gray | OAK | WASH | HOU | BAL | NYJ | ATL | INDY | BUF | CLE | DET | TB | JAX | SEA | AZ | MIN | DEN | 41 |
Dan Hindery | SD | WASH | HOU | PIT | NYJ | CAR | MIA | BUF | CLE | DET | TB | JAX | SEA | AZ | MIN | DEN | 36 |
Danny Tuccitto | OAK | WASH | HOU | BAL | NYJ | ATL | INDY | BUF | KC | DET | CHI | JAX | SEA | GB | MIN | CIN | 49 |
Dave Larkin | OAK | WASH | HOU | BAL | NE | ATL | MIA | BUF | KC | DET | TB | NO | SEA | GB | MIN | CIN | 45 |
James Brimacombe | SD | WASH | HOU | PIT | NE | CAR | INDY | DAL | CLE | DET | CHI | JAX | SEA | GB | NYG | DEN | 55 |
Jason Wood | OAK | PHI | HOU | PIT | NE | ATL | INDY | DAL | KC | DET | CHI | JAX | STL | GB | NYG | DEN | 46 |
Jeff Haseley | OAK | WASH | TEN | PIT | NYJ | ATL | MIA | BUF | CLE | DET | TB | JAX | SEA | GB | MIN | DEN | 44 |
John Lee | SD | WASH | HOU | BAL | NYJ | CAR | INDY | BUF | KC | SF | CHI | JAX | STL | AZ | MIN | DEN | 44 |
Justin Bonnema | SD | WASH | TEN | PIT | NYJ | CAR | MIA | DAL | CLE | SF | CHI | NO | SEA | GB | MIN | DEN | 48 |
Justin Howe | SD | WASH | HOU | BAL | NYJ | ATL | INDY | DAL | KC | SF | TB | NO | STL | AZ | NYG | CIN | 42 |
Mark Wimer | OAK | WASH | HOU | PIT | NYJ | CAR | MIA | BUF | CLE | DET | TB | JAX | SEA | AZ | MIN | DEN | 37 |
Matt Bitonti | OAK | PHI | HOU | BAL | NYJ | CAR | INDY | BUF | CLE | DET | TB | JAX | STL | GB | MIN | DEN | 48 |
Maurile Tremblay | SD | PHI | TEN | PIT | NE | ATL | MIA | DAL | KC | DET | CHI | JAX | STL | AZ | MIN | CIN | 41 |
Phil Alexander | SD | PHI | HOU | BAL | NE | ATL | INDY | DAL | KC | SF | TB | JAX | SEA | GB | MIN | DEN | 33 |
Steve Holloway | OAK | PHI | HOU | BAL | NE | ATL | INDY | BUF | CLE | DET | TB | JAX | STL | GB | NYG | DEN | 40 |
William Grant | OAK | WASH | HOU | PIT | NE | CAR | MIA | DAL | KC | DET | TB | JAX | STL | AZ | MIN | DEN | 47 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Most of the season is now behind us, but consensus is still hard to achieve. The closest thing to consensus picks this week are two upset calls of Houston at Tennessee and also Jacksonville at New Orleans with 19 selections each. I agree with both, especially the Texans. Three teams received 17 picks (Detroit, Minnesota, Washington) and these are riskier as the Vikings could lack motivation by Sunday night if Green Bay loses earlier that same day and the Washington pick is an underdog selection. Denver (16) and Indianapolis (15 upset picks) were next, followed by Pittsburgh, Seattle and Oakland with 14 selections. Las Vegas would have loved the call on several games this week as four contests (New England / New York Jets, Carolina / Atlanta, Buffalo / Dallas and Kansas City / Cleveland) are close enough to call a dead heat this week. With just two weeks to go, there is certainly lots at stake and plenty of interesting calls to make Week 16 one to watch. .
ODDS AND ENDS
We are getting deeper into the season so we should know more, but picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 52.3% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.