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Against The Spread Pool: Week 15

Footballguys.com Staff Pick NFL Games Against the Las Vegas Point Spread

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread.  Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (22) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line.  As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored in the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.   

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from this week.

Road Team: NO MIN CHI GB SF DAL DET OAK IND NYJ TEN WAS SEA PHI BAL NE      
Home Team: ATL CAR CIN CLE HOU NYG TB KC BUF DEN ARI LAC JAC LAR PIT MIA      
Favorite: NO MIN CIN GB HOU DAL TB KC BUF NYJ TEN LAC JAC LAR PIT NE      
Point Spread: -1.5 -2.5 -6.5 -3.5 -2.5 -4.5 -1.5 -3.5 -3.5 -0.5 -2.5 -6.5 -3.5 -1.5 -5.5 -11.5      
Staffer Last Week's Picks MNF Last Year to
Tot Pts Week Date
Danny Tuccitto ATL CAR CHI GB HOU NYG DET KC BUF DEN ARI WAS SEA PHI BAL MIA 49 12 116
James Brimacombe NO CAR CIN GB SF DAL DET OAK BUF DEN ARI LAC JAC PHI PIT NE 46 11 112
Jeff Haseley ATL MIN CHI GB SF DAL DET KC BUF NYJ TEN LAC SEA PHI BAL NE 47 11 104
Alessandro Miglio ATL CAR CHI GB HOU DAL TB KC BUF NYJ ARI WAS SEA LAR BAL MIA 53 10 107
Mark Wimer ATL MIN CHI GB HOU DAL DET KC BUF NYJ ARI WAS JAC LAR BAL NE 42 10 116
William Grant ATL MIN CHI GB HOU DAL DET KC IND DEN TEN LAC SEA PHI BAL NE 46 10 109
Andrew Garda NO MIN CHI GB HOU DAL TB KC BUF NYJ TEN LAC JAC PHI PIT MIA 50 9 109
Devin Knotts ATL CAR CHI CLE SF NYG DET OAK IND DEN ARI WAS JAC LAR BAL NE 51 9 109
Jason Wood NO CAR CHI GB SF DAL TB KC BUF NYJ TEN LAC SEA PHI PIT NE 51 9 108
Keith Roberts NO MIN CHI CLE SF DAL DET KC BUF NYJ TEN LAC SEA LAR BAL MIA 46 9 103
Chris Feery NO MIN CHI GB SF NYG DET OAK BUF NYJ TEN LAC SEA PHI BAL NE 49 8 100
John Mamula NO MIN CIN GB SF NYG DET KC BUF NYJ TEN LAC JAC PHI PIT NE 47 8 110
Bear Heiser ATL CAR CIN GB HOU DAL DET KC BUF NYJ TEN WAS SEA LAR PIT NE 48 7 112
Dave Larkin NO CAR CIN CLE SF NYG TB KC IND NYJ ARI WAS SEA PHI BAL MIA 48 7 113
Justin Howe NO CAR CHI CLE HOU NYG DET KC IND NYJ TEN WAS SEA PHI BAL MIA 47 7 93
Phil Alexander NO CAR CIN CLE SF DAL DET OAK BUF DEN TEN WAS SEA PHI PIT NE 46 7 113
St Holloway NO MIN CIN GB HOU NYG DET KC BUF NYJ ARI WAS SEA LAR PIT MIA 44 7 105
Jeff Pasquino NO MIN CHI CLE HOU NYG DET OAK BUF NYJ ARI LAC SEA PHI PIT NE 48 6 107
Andy Hicks ATL CAR CIN CLE SF NYG TB OAK IND NYJ ARI WAS SEA LAR BAL MIA 49 6 95
Matt Bitonti NO MIN CIN GB SF DAL TB OAK IND NYJ TEN WAS JAC LAR BAL MIA 46 6 118
Justin Bonnema NO MIN CIN CLE HOU DAL DET KC BUF NYJ TEN LAC SEA LAR PIT NE 48 5 107
Aaron Rudnicki NO MIN CIN CLE SF DAL DET OAK IND NYJ TEN WAS SEA LAR BAL NE 44 4 108

Six staff members had double-digit wins in Week 14, led by Danny Tuccitto with a 12-4 record.  James Brimacombe and Jeff Haseley were one game back at 11-5, helping the staff overall to a winning week once again.  If it were not for a few upsets (New England, Jacksonville, Denver) then the staff would have had a great week, but a 178-174 record for Week 14 does push the group to 172 games above .500 on the year (2,374-2,202, 51.9%).   The season is starting to wind down and we have some big favorites on the board, so Week 15 could get interesting.  Lets' take a look at what the staff decided on for Week 15.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Road Team: DEN CHI LAC NYJ HOU PHI MIA BAL CIN ARI GB LAR NE TEN DAL ATL  
Home Team: IND DET KC NO JAC NYG BUF CLE MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT SF OAK TB  
Favorite: DEN DET LAC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA NE SF DAL ATL  
Point Spread: -2.5 -5.5 -1.5 -15.5 -11.5 -7.5 -3.5 -6.5 -10.5 -4.5 -2.5 -1.5 -2.5 -1.5 -2.5 -6.5  
Staffer The Picks MNF
Tot Pts
Jeff Pasquino DEN DET KC NO JAC PHI MIA CLE MIN ARI GB SEA NE TEN DAL ATL 48
Aaron Rudnicki DEN DET LAC NYJ JAC NYG MIA BAL CIN ARI CAR LAR NE TEN DAL ATL 48
Alessandro Miglio DEN CHI KC NYJ HOU NYG MIA CLE CIN WAS CAR SEA PIT SF DAL TB 54
Andrew Garda DEN DET LAC NO JAC NYG BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA NE TEN DAL ATL 45
Andy Hicks IND CHI KC NYJ HOU NYG BUF CLE CIN ARI CAR SEA PIT SF OAK TB 71
Bear Heiser DEN DET KC NO HOU NYG BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR LAR PIT SF DAL ATL 52
Chris Feery IND DET LAC NYJ HOU NYG BUF CLE MIN ARI GB LAR NE SF DAL TB 45
Danny Tuccitto IND DET KC NYJ HOU NYG MIA BAL MIN WAS GB SEA PIT TEN OAK TB 49
Dave Larkin DEN CHI LAC NO HOU PHI MIA BAL CIN ARI CAR SEA NE SF DAL TB 41
Devin Knotts IND DET KC NYJ HOU PHI BUF CLE CIN WAS GB LAR PIT SF OAK TB 44
James Brimacombe DEN DET LAC NO JAC PHI MIA BAL MIN ARI GB LAR PIT SF OAK ATL 47
Jason Wood DEN DET LAC NYJ HOU NYG MIA BAL MIN ARI GB LAR PIT SF DAL ATL 43
Jeff Haseley DEN DET KC NO HOU PHI MIA CLE MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT SF DAL TB 46
John Mamula IND DET LAC NO HOU NYG BUF BAL MIN WAS GB SEA NE SF DAL ATL 55
Justin Bonnema DEN DET KC NO JAC NYG BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT TEN DAL ATL 48
Justin Howe DEN DET KC NYJ HOU PHI MIA CLE MIN ARI CAR SEA NE TEN DAL ATL 49
Keith Roberts DEN CHI LAC NO HOU PHI MIA BAL MIN WAS GB LAR PIT TEN DAL TB 49
Mark Wimer DEN CHI KC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS GB LAR PIT TEN OAK ATL 63
Matt Bitonti IND CHI KC NO JAC NYG MIA BAL MIN WAS CAR LAR NE SF DAL ATL 50
Phil Alexander IND CHI KC NYJ HOU NYG BUF BAL MIN ARI CAR SEA NE SF DAL TB 50
St Holloway DEN CHI LAC NYJ HOU PHI MIA BAL CIN ARI GB LAR NE TEN DAL ATL 39
William Grant DEN CHI KC NYJ JAC NYG BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT SF DAL ATL 49

CONSENSUS WINNERS

All 22 sets of picks are in this morning, and only five team had 14 or more votes this week.  Dallas (17) led the way as a road favorite in Oakland, which makes sense as the Cowboys are in a must win situation.  Minnesota (16) is our first big home favorite, and most of the staff expects the Vikings to handle the Bengals rather easily.  Denver (15) and Baltimore (15) come in next, although the Ravens should face a Browns team pushing for their first win.  The Broncos are also a tougher call as a road team on a short week, facing the Colts in Indianapolis on Thursday.  Houston (14) rounds out our top six picks as a group, with the Texans visiting Jacksonville as a big underdog.  The rest of the matchups were either split 11-11 (Saints/Jets), 12-10 or 13-9.  Five teams had 13 votes (Lions, Chiefs, Giants, Titans and Falcons) while five more received 12 (Miami, Washington, Carolina, Seattle and Pittsburgh).  Overall seven road teams were majority picks while five underdogs (Houston, Kansas City, Miami, Pittsburgh and the Giants) were top choices.  Once again, Week 15 has all the makings of yet another very interesting week in the NFL and for the staff picks.

ODDS AND ENDS

The season is nearly over - just three weeks to go - and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding.  That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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