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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | MIN | DET | PIT | NO | INDY | SD | WASH | SF | TEN | ATL | SEA | BUF | OAK | DAL | NE | NYG | ||||
Home Team: | AZ | STL | CIN | TB | JAX | KC | CHI | CLE | NYJ | CAR | BAL | PHI | DEN | GB | HOU | MIA | ||||
Favorite: | AZ | STL | CIN | TB | JAX | KC | CHI | CLE | NYJ | CAR | SEA | PHI | DEN | GB | NE | MIA | ||||
Point Spread: | -7.5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -0.5 | -10.5 | -3.5 | -1.5 | -7.5 | -7.5 | -7.5 | -0.5 | -7.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | -0.5 | ||||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | Win% | |||||||||||||||
Jason Wood | MIN | DET | PIT | NO | JAX | SD | CHI | SF | NYJ | ATL | SEA | PHI | OAK | GB | NE | NYG | 51 | 12 | 118 | 56.7% |
Justin Bonnema | AZ | DET | PIT | NO | JAX | SD | CHI | CLE | TEN | ATL | SEA | PHI | OAK | GB | NE | NYG | 52 | 11 | 115 | 55.2% |
Phil Alexander | AZ | DET | PIT | NO | JAX | SD | CHI | CLE | TEN | CAR | SEA | PHI | OAK | GB | HOU | NYG | 36 | 11 | 115 | 55.2% |
Dan Hindery | AZ | DET | PIT | NO | JAX | SD | WASH | SF | TEN | CAR | SEA | PHI | OAK | GB | HOU | MIA | 42 | 10 | 99 | 47.5% |
James Brimacombe | MIN | DET | PIT | TB | INDY | SD | WASH | SF | NYJ | CAR | SEA | PHI | DEN | GB | NE | MIA | 48 | 10 | 100 | 48.0% |
John Lee | AZ | STL | PIT | TB | JAX | KC | WASH | CLE | TEN | CAR | BAL | BUF | OAK | GB | NE | NYG | 47 | 10 | 111 | 53.3% |
Alessandro Miglio | AZ | STL | CIN | TB | INDY | SD | CHI | CLE | TEN | CAR | SEA | PHI | OAK | GB | NE | MIA | 47 | 9 | 109 | 52.4% |
Chris Feery | MIN | DET | CIN | TB | JAX | KC | WASH | SF | NYJ | CAR | SEA | BUF | OAK | DAL | NE | NYG | 49 | 9 | 103 | 49.5% |
Dave Larkin | AZ | DET | PIT | TB | JAX | SD | WASH | CLE | NYJ | ATL | SEA | BUF | DEN | GB | NE | MIA | 44 | 9 | 109 | 52.4% |
Justin Howe | AZ | DET | PIT | TB | JAX | SD | WASH | SF | TEN | ATL | SEA | PHI | OAK | GB | NE | MIA | 48 | 9 | 117 | 56.2% |
Matt Bitonti | AZ | DET | CIN | NO | JAX | KC | WASH | CLE | NYJ | CAR | SEA | BUF | DEN | GB | HOU | NYG | 42 | 9 | 107 | 51.4% |
Steve Holloway | AZ | STL | PIT | TB | JAX | SD | CHI | CLE | NYJ | CAR | SEA | BUF | DEN | GB | HOU | MIA | 44 | 9 | 94 | 45.1% |
Jeff Pasquino | AZ | DET | PIT | TB | JAX | KC | WASH | SF | NYJ | CAR | SEA | BUF | DEN | GB | NE | MIA | 43 | 8 | 104 | 50.0% |
Aaron Rudnicki | MIN | DET | PIT | NO | INDY | KC | WASH | SF | TEN | CAR | SEA | BUF | DEN | GB | NE | MIA | 45 | 8 | 107 | 51.4% |
Danny Tuccitto | AZ | STL | PIT | TB | JAX | SD | WASH | CLE | TEN | ATL | BAL | PHI | OAK | DAL | NE | MIA | 49 | 7 | 104 | 50.0% |
William Grant | AZ | DET | PIT | TB | INDY | SD | WASH | CLE | TEN | CAR | SEA | BUF | DEN | DAL | NE | MIA | 46 | 7 | 108 | 51.9% |
Andrew Garda | AZ | DET | CIN | TB | INDY | SD | CHI | SF | NYJ | CAR | SEA | BUF | DEN | DAL | NE | NYG | 40 | 6 | 103 | 49.5% |
Andy Hicks | AZ | STL | CIN | TB | JAX | KC | CHI | CLE | NYJ | CAR | BAL | BUF | DEN | GB | HOU | MIA | 51 | 6 | 109 | 52.4% |
Maurile Tremblay | AZ | STL | PIT | TB | JAX | SD | WASH | SF | TEN | ATL | BAL | BUF | OAK | DAL | HOU | MIA | 47 | 6 | 110 | 52.8% |
Bear Heiser | AZ | DET | CIN | TB | JAX | KC | WASH | SF | TEN | CAR | SEA | BUF | DEN | GB | HOU | MIA | 46 | 5 | 104 | 50.0% |
Clayton Gray | AZ | DET | CIN | TB | INDY | KC | CHI | SF | NYJ | CAR | SEA | BUF | DEN | GB | HOU | NYG | 47 | 5 | 102 | 49.0% |
Mark Wimer | AZ | DET | CIN | TB | JAX | KC | CHI | SF | NYJ | CAR | SEA | BUF | DEN | GB | HOU | MIA | 45 | 5 | 101 | 48.5% |
Jeff Haseley | AZ | DET | CIN | TB | INDY | KC | WASH | SF | TEN | CAR | BAL | BUF | OAK | DAL | NE | MIA | 48 | 4 | 96 | 46.1% |
Jason Wood claimed the title in Week 14 with 12 out of 16 correct picks, getting past Justin Bonnema and Phil Alexander by one game. That moved Jason into first place overall on the year with a record of 118- 90, nearly a 57% winning percentage, which is extremely good - but not even 5% above what it takes to beat Las Vegas (52.3%). That just shows you how hard it is to beat Vegas on a consistent basis. Jason leads Justin Howe by one game in the overall standings and both Justin Bonnema and Phil Alexander by three correct picks. The staff did only an average jobl in Week 14 with about a .500 record (185-183) due to upsets of Arizona (19 losses), Tampa Bay (17) and Miami (15), plus a few bad upset calls with Detroit (17) and Buffalo (15) not getting the job done. The entire group moved to 2,445-2,339 (51.1%) on the year, which is not quite enough for the entire staff to be beating Las Vegas. Here's hoping that the winning ways improve in Week 15.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | TB | NYJ | HOU | ATL | BUF | CAR | TEN | CHI | KC | CLE | GB | DEN | CIN | MIA | AZ | DET | |
Home Team: | STL | DAL | INDY | JAX | WASH | NYG | NE | MIN | BAL | SEA | OAK | PIT | SF | SD | PHI | NO | |
Favorite: | STL | NYJ | INDY | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | MIN | KC | SEA | GB | PIT | CIN | SD | AZ | NO | |
Point Spread: | -0.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -0.5 | -4.5 | -14.5 | -5.5 | -7.5 | -14.5 | -2.5 | -6.5 | -4.5 | -0.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | TB | NYJ | HOU | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | MIN | KC | SEA | GB | DEN | CIN | MIA | AZ | NO | 65 |
Aaron Rudnicki | TB | NYJ | INDY | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | MIN | KC | SEA | GB | DEN | SF | MIA | PHI | NO | 46 |
Alessandro Miglio | STL | DAL | INDY | JAX | WASH | CAR | TEN | MIN | BAL | CLE | GB | PIT | CIN | SD | AZ | NO | 50 |
Andrew Garda | STL | NYJ | HOU | JAX | WASH | CAR | NE | MIN | KC | SEA | GB | DEN | CIN | MIA | AZ | NO | 70 |
Andy Hicks | STL | NYJ | HOU | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | CHI | KC | CLE | OAK | DEN | CIN | MIA | PHI | NO | 61 |
Bear Heiser | TB | NYJ | INDY | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | CHI | KC | SEA | GB | PIT | CIN | MIA | AZ | DET | 64 |
Chris Feery | TB | NYJ | HOU | JAX | BUF | NYG | NE | MIN | KC | SEA | OAK | DEN | CIN | MIA | AZ | NO | 49 |
Clayton Gray | STL | NYJ | HOU | JAX | WASH | CAR | NE | CHI | KC | SEA | OAK | DEN | SF | SD | PHI | NO | 52 |
Dan Hindery | TB | NYJ | HOU | ATL | WASH | CAR | NE | MIN | KC | CLE | OAK | DEN | CIN | MIA | AZ | NO | 55 |
Danny Tuccitto | STL | DAL | INDY | ATL | BUF | NYG | TEN | MIN | BAL | CLE | GB | PIT | SF | SD | PHI | NO | 49 |
Dave Larkin | TB | NYJ | HOU | JAX | WASH | NYG | NE | CHI | KC | SEA | GB | DEN | CIN | MIA | PHI | NO | 52 |
James Brimacombe | TB | NYJ | HOU | ATL | BUF | CAR | NE | CHI | KC | SEA | GB | DEN | CIN | SD | PHI | NO | 50 |
Jason Wood | TB | NYJ | HOU | JAX | BUF | NYG | TEN | CHI | KC | SEA | OAK | DEN | SF | MIA | AZ | DET | 53 |
Jeff Haseley | STL | DAL | INDY | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | CHI | BAL | SEA | OAK | DEN | CIN | SD | AZ | DET | 53 |
John Lee | TB | NYJ | HOU | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | CHI | BAL | CLE | GB | PIT | SF | MIA | AZ | NO | 50 |
Justin Bonnema | TB | NYJ | HOU | JAX | WASH | NYG | TEN | CHI | BAL | CLE | GB | PIT | SF | MIA | AZ | NO | 52 |
Justin Howe | TB | NYJ | HOU | ATL | BUF | CAR | TEN | CHI | BAL | CLE | GB | DEN | CIN | SD | AZ | NO | 49 |
Mark Wimer | TB | NYJ | INDY | JAX | WASH | CAR | NE | MIN | KC | SEA | GB | DEN | CIN | MIA | AZ | NO | 52 |
Matt Bitonti | TB | NYJ | INDY | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | CHI | KC | SEA | OAK | DEN | CIN | MIA | PHI | NO | 49 |
Maurile Tremblay | TB | DAL | HOU | ATL | BUF | CAR | TEN | CHI | BAL | CLE | OAK | DEN | CIN | MIA | AZ | DET | 49 |
Phil Alexander | TB | DAL | HOU | ATL | WASH | NYG | NE | MIN | KC | SEA | GB | PIT | CIN | MIA | PHI | NO | 50 |
Steve Holloway | TB | NYJ | HOU | JAX | WASH | CAR | NE | CHI | KC | CLE | GB | PIT | SF | MIA | AZ | NO | 64 |
William Grant | STL | NYJ | HOU | JAX | BUF | CAR | NE | MIN | KC | CLE | GB | DEN | CIN | SD | AZ | NO | 51 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Most of the season is now behind us, but consensus is still hard to achieve. The closest thing to a consensus pick this week is New Orleans, who received 19 of 23 choices from the staff, which is a bit surprising given that the game is just a 3-point contest on paper according to Vegas. Next closest was the Jets (18), followed by a three-way tie if Jacksonville, Carolina and New England with 17 selections. Six teams received 16 votes (Tampa Bay, Houston, Kansas City, Denver, Cincinnati and Miami) which include four upset picks (Buccaneers, Texans, Broncos and Dolphins). Green Bay and Arizona were chosen 15 times, while Buffalo (14), Chicago (13) and Seattle round out the top of the list. No games were close enough to call a dead heat this week. WIth just three weeks to go, there is certainly lots at stake and plenty of interesting calls to make Week 15 one to watch.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are getting deeper into the season so we should know more, but picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 52.3% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.