Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | BUF | JAX | MIA | CLE | CAR | CHI | DAL | NO | DET | MIN | KC | NE | AZ | HOU | ||||
Home Team: | NYJ | BAL | PHI | PIT | TEN | STL | TB | WASH | GB | OAK | DEN | NYG | SEA | CIN | ||||
Favorite: | NYJ | BAL | PHI | PIT | CAR | STL | TB | NO | GB | OAK | DEN | NE | SEA | CIN | ||||
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -6.5 | -6.5 | -4.5 | -5.5 | -8.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -11.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | -10.5 | ||||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | Win% | |||||||||||||
Justin Howe | BUF | JAX | MIA | PIT | TEN | CHI | TB | WASH | GB | OAK | KC | NYG | AZ | HOU | 47 | 11 | 84 | 57.5% |
Maurile Tremblay | BUF | JAX | MIA | PIT | TEN | CHI | TB | WASH | DET | OAK | KC | NYG | SEA | HOU | 44 | 11 | 79 | 54.1% |
Alessandro Miglio | NYJ | JAX | MIA | PIT | CAR | CHI | TB | WASH | DET | OAK | DEN | NE | SEA | HOU | 44 | 9 | 71 | 48.6% |
Andy Hicks | BUF | JAX | MIA | CLE | CAR | CHI | TB | WASH | GB | OAK | DEN | NYG | AZ | CIN | 48 | 9 | 82 | 56.1% |
Dave Larkin | NYJ | BAL | MIA | PIT | CAR | CHI | TB | WASH | GB | MIN | DEN | NYG | AZ | CIN | 52 | 9 | 76 | 52% |
Jason Wood | BUF | JAX | MIA | PIT | CAR | CHI | TB | NO | GB | MIN | DEN | NE | AZ | CIN | 48 | 9 | 83 | 56.8% |
Jeff Haseley | BUF | JAX | PHI | PIT | CAR | CHI | DAL | WASH | GB | MIN | KC | NE | AZ | CIN | 46 | 9 | 69 | 47.2% |
John Lee | NYJ | JAX | MIA | PIT | CAR | CHI | TB | NO | GB | OAK | DEN | NYG | AZ | HOU | 42 | 9 | 81 | 55.4% |
Justin Bonnema | BUF | JAX | PHI | PIT | CAR | CHI | TB | NO | GB | OAK | DEN | NYG | AZ | HOU | 48 | 9 | 83 | 56.8% |
Steve Holloway | NYJ | JAX | MIA | PIT | CAR | CHI | DAL | NO | DET | OAK | DEN | NYG | AZ | HOU | 39 | 9 | 63 | 43.1% |
Aaron Rudnicki | NYJ | JAX | MIA | CLE | CAR | CHI | TB | NO | DET | MIN | KC | NE | SEA | CIN | 46 | 8 | 74 | 50.6% |
Chris Feery | NYJ | JAX | MIA | PIT | CAR | CHI | DAL | NO | GB | MIN | KC | NE | AZ | CIN | 41 | 8 | 71 | 48.6% |
Phil Alexander | BUF | BAL | MIA | PIT | TEN | CHI | DAL | WASH | DET | OAK | DEN | NYG | SEA | HOU | 48 | 8 | 79 | 54.1% |
Andrew Garda | NYJ | JAX | PHI | PIT | CAR | CHI | TB | NO | GB | MIN | DEN | NE | AZ | CIN | 40 | 7 | 71 | 48.6% |
Clayton Gray | NYJ | JAX | PHI | CLE | CAR | CHI | DAL | NO | GB | MIN | KC | NYG | AZ | CIN | 49 | 7 | 75 | 51.3% |
Dan Hindery | NYJ | JAX | MIA | CLE | CAR | CHI | DAL | NO | GB | MIN | DEN | NYG | SEA | HOU | 45 | 7 | 63 | 43.1% |
Danny Tuccitto | NYJ | BAL | PHI | CLE | CAR | CHI | TB | NO | GB | MIN | DEN | NYG | AZ | HOU | 49 | 7 | 77 | 52.7% |
James Brimacombe | NYJ | JAX | MIA | PIT | CAR | CHI | TB | NO | DET | OAK | DEN | NE | SEA | CIN | 57 | 7 | 64 | 43.8% |
Mark Wimer | NYJ | JAX | MIA | PIT | CAR | CHI | DAL | NO | GB | OAK | DEN | NE | AZ | HOU | 52 | 7 | 77 | 52.7% |
Bear Heiser | NYJ | JAX | PHI | CLE | CAR | CHI | TB | NO | GB | OAK | DEN | NYG | AZ | CIN | 56 | 6 | 73 | 50% |
Matt Bitonti | BUF | BAL | PHI | PIT | TEN | CHI | DAL | NO | GB | OAK | DEN | NYG | AZ | CIN | 47 | 5 | 74 | 50.6% |
William Grant | NYJ | BAL | PHI | PIT | CAR | CHI | DAL | NO | GB | OAK | DEN | NE | AZ | CIN | 46 | 5 | 74 | 50.6% |
Jeff Pasquino | NYJ | JAX | PHI | PIT | CAR | STL | TB | NO | GB | OAK | DEN | NE | SEA | CIN | 54 | 4 | 73 | 50% |
Justin Howe and Maurile Tremblay tied atop the standings last week with 11 of 14 games right, so we had to go to the tiebreaker. The barnburning Bengals-Texans result of 10-6 Houston totalled up a whopping 16 points, so Maurile wins by missing by the fewest amount. The staff did very well overall with most everyone getting at least seven games right and over half getting eight or more. That resulted in a solid Week 11 showing on a very challenging upset weekend. The entire group finished 38 games above .500 (180-142, 55.9%) in one of their better weeks. The good results kept the staff above 50% correct picks for the year at 1,716-1,642 (51.1%), which is not quite enough for the entire staff to be beating Las Vegas. Here's hoping that the winning ways continue for Week 11.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | TEN | STL | INDY | WASH | NYJ | TB | OAK | DAL | DEN | KC | SF | GB | CIN | BUF | |
Home Team: | JAX | BAL | ATL | CAR | HOU | PHI | DET | MIA | CHI | SD | SEA | MIN | AZ | NE | |
Favorite: | JAX | BAL | ATL | CAR | NYJ | PHI | OAK | DAL | DEN | KC | SEA | MIN | AZ | NE | |
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -1.5 | -6.5 | -7.5 | -2.5 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -0.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -11.5 | -0.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | JAX | STL | ATL | CAR | NYJ | PHI | OAK | DAL | DEN | KC | SEA | MIN | AZ | NE | 51 |
Aaron Rudnicki | TEN | BAL | INDY | WASH | NYJ | TB | OAK | MIA | CHI | SD | SEA | GB | AZ | BUF | 46 |
Alessandro Miglio | JAX | BAL | INDY | WASH | HOU | TB | DET | MIA | CHI | SD | SEA | MIN | AZ | NE | 51 |
Andrew Garda | JAX | STL | ATL | CAR | NYJ | TB | OAK | DAL | CHI | KC | SF | MIN | AZ | NE | 47 |
Andy Hicks | JAX | STL | INDY | WASH | NYJ | PHI | OAK | MIA | CHI | SD | SEA | MIN | CIN | NE | 59 |
Bear Heiser | JAX | BAL | INDY | WASH | NYJ | TB | DET | MIA | CHI | SD | SEA | GB | AZ | NE | 54 |
Chris Feery | TEN | STL | ATL | WASH | NYJ | TB | OAK | DAL | CHI | KC | SF | GB | CIN | NE | 48 |
Clayton Gray | JAX | STL | ATL | CAR | HOU | TB | OAK | DAL | CHI | SD | SEA | MIN | AZ | NE | 51 |
Dan Hindery | JAX | BAL | ATL | WASH | HOU | TB | OAK | DAL | CHI | KC | SF | MIN | AZ | BUF | 47 |
Danny Tuccitto | TEN | BAL | INDY | WASH | NYJ | TB | OAK | DAL | DEN | SD | SEA | MIN | AZ | NE | 49 |
Dave Larkin | JAX | BAL | INDY | WASH | NYJ | TB | DET | MIA | DEN | SD | SF | MIN | CIN | BUF | 48 |
James Brimacombe | JAX | BAL | INDY | WASH | HOU | PHI | DET | MIA | DEN | SD | SEA | GB | AZ | NE | 52 |
Jason Wood | JAX | STL | ATL | WASH | NYJ | TB | OAK | DAL | CHI | KC | SF | GB | AZ | NE | 48 |
Jeff Haseley | JAX | BAL | INDY | CAR | HOU | PHI | DET | MIA | DEN | SD | SEA | MIN | AZ | NE | 49 |
John Lee | JAX | BAL | INDY | WASH | NYJ | TB | OAK | MIA | DEN | SD | SEA | GB | AZ | NE | 48 |
Justin Bonnema | JAX | STL | ATL | WASH | NYJ | PHI | OAK | DAL | CHI | SD | SF | GB | AZ | NE | 58 |
Justin Howe | TEN | STL | INDY | CAR | NYJ | TB | DET | DAL | DEN | SD | SEA | GB | AZ | NE | 48 |
Mark Wimer | JAX | STL | ATL | CAR | NYJ | PHI | OAK | MIA | DEN | SD | SEA | GB | AZ | NE | 66 |
Matt Bitonti | JAX | BAL | ATL | CAR | NYJ | TB | OAK | DAL | CHI | KC | SF | MIN | CIN | NE | 65 |
Maurile Tremblay | TEN | STL | ATL | CAR | NYJ | TB | OAK | MIA | DEN | KC | SEA | MIN | AZ | BUF | 44 |
Phil Alexander | TEN | BAL | ATL | CAR | HOU | TB | OAK | DAL | CHI | SD | SEA | GB | AZ | NE | 45 |
Steve Holloway | JAX | STL | ATL | CAR | HOU | PHI | DET | DAL | DEN | SD | SF | GB | AZ | NE | 44 |
William Grant | JAX | BAL | INDY | CAR | NYJ | TB | OAK | DAL | CHI | KC | SF | GB | AZ | BUF | 44 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Nine weeks are now behind us, and we are getting closer to our first consensus pick. Once again, we did not have a full consensus, but Arizona (19) and New England (18) had a large amount of the staff on their side. Jacksonville (17) was next, followed by three teams (Oakland, Tampa Bay and the Jets) that received 16 selections. The Buccaneers are an interesting pick as they are the highest selected underdog on this slate. San Diego rounds out the top of the list with 15 picks. No other team was picked more than 14 times. Las Vegas would love these sets of picks with four games nearly dead even (Baltimore / St. Louis, Atlanta / Indianapolis, Carolina / Washington and Minnesota / Green Bay) as the choices were split almost exactly in half for these contests. It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are getting deeper into the season so we should know more, but picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 52.3% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.