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Against The Spread Pool: Week 10

Footballguys.com Staff Pick NFL Games Against the Las Vegas Point Spread

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread.  Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (22) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line.  As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored in the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.   

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from this week.

Road Team: BUF BAL CIN ATL DEN IND TB LAR WAS ARI KC OAK DET      
Home Team: NYJ TEN JAC CAR PHI HOU NO NYG SEA SF DAL MIA GB      
Favorite: BUF TEN JAC CAR PHI HOU NO LAR SEA ARI KC OAK DET      
Point Spread: -3.5 -3.5 -4.5 -1.5 -7.5 -12.5 -7.5 -3.5 -7.5 -2.5 -1.5 -2.5 -2.5 MNF Last Year to
Staffer Last Week's Picks Tot Pts Week Date
Chris Feery BUF TEN JAC CAR PHI IND NO NYG WAS ARI KC OAK DET 45 9 66
Matt Bitonti BUF BAL JAC ATL PHI IND NO LAR SEA ARI KC OAK DET 52 9 78
Aaron Rudnicki NYJ TEN CIN ATL PHI IND TB LAR WAS SF DAL OAK DET 42 8 68
Andrew Garda BUF TEN JAC ATL PHI HOU NO LAR WAS ARI KC OAK DET 45 8 65
Andy Hicks NYJ TEN JAC CAR DEN HOU NO LAR WAS ARI DAL MIA GB 47 8 64
Jason Wood BUF TEN JAC ATL PHI IND NO LAR WAS SF KC OAK DET 42 8 68
Justin Bonnema BUF TEN JAC ATL PHI IND NO NYG SEA ARI DAL OAK DET 48 8 68
Justin Howe NYJ TEN CIN CAR PHI IND NO NYG SEA SF DAL OAK DET 44 8 61
Mark Wimer NYJ BAL JAC ATL PHI HOU TB LAR WAS ARI KC OAK GB 63 8 69
Phil Alexander NYJ TEN CIN CAR PHI IND TB LAR SEA ARI DAL OAK GB 47 8 70
Alessandro Miglio NYJ TEN JAC CAR DEN IND TB LAR WAS SF DAL MIA GB 48 7 62
Bear Heiser BUF TEN JAC ATL PHI HOU NO LAR WAS SF KC OAK DET 48 7 70
John Mamula BUF TEN JAC CAR PHI HOU TB LAR SEA ARI DAL OAK GB 42 7 67
Keith Roberts BUF TEN JAC ATL PHI HOU NO LAR WAS SF KC OAK DET 44 7 66
Jeff Pasquino BUF TEN JAC ATL PHI HOU NO LAR SEA ARI KC OAK GB 43 6 65
Danny Tuccitto NYJ BAL JAC ATL DEN HOU NO NYG WAS SF DAL MIA GB 49 6 73
Dave Larkin NYJ TEN CIN CAR DEN IND NO NYG SEA SF DAL MIA GB 43 6 61
Devin Knotts NYJ TEN JAC ATL DEN IND TB LAR SEA SF KC OAK GB 44 6 67
James Brimacombe NYJ TEN CIN ATL DEN IND TB NYG WAS ARI KC OAK GB 44 5 70
Jeff Haseley NYJ TEN JAC ATL PHI IND NO NYG SEA ARI KC MIA GB 44 5 70
Stephen Holloway BUF TEN JAC ATL PHI HOU NO LAR SEA SF DAL MIA GB 46 5 62
William Grant BUF TEN JAC CAR DEN HOU NO NYG WAS ARI KC OAK GB 47 5 65

For the first time in a while, the Monday Night Football tiebreaker came into play as both Chris Feery and Matt Bitonti had nine wins after Detroit finished off Green Bay. Chris' number of 45 was just two point off of the 30-17 final, so he took down Week 9.  The staff overall did well, getting over 50% of the picks right (154-119 for Week 9), raising the combined staff record to 1,475-1297 (53.2% correct).  That is simply remarkable for the group, especially when considering that all picks are made prior to Thursday.   We are now more than halfway through the year (132 of 256 games played), so let's take a look at what Week 10 looks like.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Road Team: SEA NO PIT CLE LAC GB NYJ MIN CIN HOU NYG DAL NE MIA  
Home Team: ARI BUF IND DET JAC CHI TB WAS TEN LAR SF ATL DEN CAR  
Favorite: SEA NO PIT DET JAC CHI NYJ MIN TEN LAR SF ATL NE CAR  
Point Spread: -5.5 -2.5 -10.5 -11.5 -4.5 -4.5 -2.5 -1.5 -5.5 -11.5 -0.5 -2.5 -7.5 -9.5 MNF
Staffer The Picks Tot Pts
Jeff Pasquino SEA NO PIT DET JAC CHI TB MIN TEN LAR SF DAL NE CAR 44
Aaron Rudnicki SEA NO PIT DET LAC GB NYJ MIN TEN LAR NYG ATL NE MIA 45
Alessandro Miglio ARI NO IND CLE JAC CHI TB WAS CIN HOU SF ATL NE MIA 44
Andrew Garda SEA NO PIT DET JAC CHI NYJ MIN TEN LAR SF DAL NE CAR 45
Andy Hicks ARI BUF IND CLE JAC CHI TB WAS CIN LAR SF ATL DEN MIA 41
Bear Heiser SEA NO PIT DET JAC CHI NYJ WAS TEN LAR SF DAL NE CAR 38
Chris Feery ARI BUF PIT DET JAC GB NYJ WAS CIN HOU NYG ATL DEN MIA 41
Danny Tuccitto ARI BUF IND DET JAC CHI NYJ WAS CIN LAR SF DAL DEN MIA 49
Dave Larkin SEA BUF IND DET LAC GB TB WAS CIN HOU NYG DAL NE MIA 44
Devin Knotts SEA BUF IND CLE JAC GB NYJ MIN CIN HOU SF ATL DEN CAR 44
James Brimacombe SEA NO PIT DET LAC GB TB MIN CIN HOU NYG ATL DEN MIA 43
Jason Wood SEA NO IND CLE JAC GB NYJ MIN TEN HOU SF DAL NE MIA 42
Jeff Haseley ARI BUF IND DET JAC CHI NYJ WAS TEN LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 42
John Mamula SEA NO PIT CLE JAC CHI NYJ MIN CIN LAR NYG DAL NE MIA 41
Justin Bonnema SEA NO IND CLE LAC GB TB WAS TEN LAR NYG DAL NE MIA 48
Keith Roberts SEA BUF PIT DET JAC CHI NYJ WAS TEN LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 49
Mark Wimer ARI BUF PIT DET JAC CHI NYJ MIN TEN LAR SF ATL NE CAR 44
Matt Bitonti SEA NO IND DET JAC CHI NYJ WAS CIN LAR SF DAL NE MIA 46
Phil Alexander ARI BUF IND DET LAC GB NYJ WAS CIN LAR NYG ATL NE MIA 45
William Grant SEA NO PIT DET JAC CHI NYJ MIN TEN LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 44
Stephen Holloway SEA NO  IND  DET  JAC CHI  NYJ  WAS   TEN  LAR NYG  DAL  NE  CAR  37 
Justin Howe  ARI  BUF  IND  CLE  JAC CHI  NYJ   WAS CIN  LAR  NYG  ATL  DEN  MIA  40 

CONSENSUS WINNERS

All but two set of picks are in this morning, and this is going to be a tricky week.  Nearly all of the picks are split down the middle, with only two teams (Jacksonville, New England) garnering 15 of 20 votes.  Detroit and the Rams are big favorites, but those big point spreads reduced the picks on those two teams to 14, matching the number of selections for the Jets against Tampa Bay, who will be starting Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback.  Three games were split down the middle (Pittsburgh-Colts, Tennessee-Cincinnati and San Francisco-Giants), with the rest of the games getting just minor majorities, mostly towards the favorites.  Only two underdogs were picked more than the favorites, as Miami (12) and Washington (11) barely achieved that margin.  Home teams were also popular this week, as just five road teams (New England, Seattle, Miami, New Orleans and the Jets) were voted to the top.   Once again, Week 10 has all the makings of yet another very interesting week in the NFL and for the staff picks.

ODDS AND ENDS

We have reached the midpoint of the season - just over half of the games have been played - and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding.  That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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