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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (22) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored in the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from this week.
Road Team: | KC | TB | TEN | CAR | NYJ | ARI | BAL | NO | JAC | DAL | SEA | DEN | CIN | ATL | WAS | |||
Home Team: | OAK | BUF | CLE | CHI | MIA | LAR | MIN | GB | IND | SF | NYG | LAC | PIT | NE | PHI | |||
Favorite: | KC | BUF | TEN | CAR | MIA | LAR | MIN | NO | JAC | DAL | SEA | LAC | PIT | NE | PHI | |||
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -6.5 | -1.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | MNF | Last | Year to |
Staffer | Last Week's Picks | Tot Pts | Week | Date | ||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | KC | TB | TEN | CAR | NYJ | LAR | MIN | NO | JAC | DAL | SEA | LAC | PIT | NE | PHI | 47 | 12 | 51 |
Matt Bitonti | OAK | TB | TEN | CHI | NYJ | ARI | MIN | NO | IND | DAL | NYG | LAC | PIT | ATL | PHI | 52 | 10 | 59 |
Aaron RudnickI | OAK | TB | TEN | CHI | NYJ | ARI | MIN | NO | IND | DAL | SEA | DEN | CIN | NE | WAS | 46 | 9 | 54 |
Andrew Garda | KC | BUF | TEN | CAR | NYJ | LAR | MIN | NO | JAC | DAL | NYG | DEN | PIT | NE | PHI | 50 | 9 | 48 |
Bear Heiser | KC | BUF | TEN | CAR | MIA | ARI | MIN | NO | JAC | DAL | SEA | LAC | PIT | NE | PHI | 56 | 9 | 55 |
Dave Larkin | OAK | TB | TEN | CAR | NYJ | LAR | BAL | GB | JAC | DAL | NYG | LAC | CIN | NE | PHI | 51 | 9 | 60 |
Devin Knotts | KC | TB | TEN | CAR | NYJ | ARI | BAL | NO | JAC | DAL | NYG | LAC | PIT | NE | PHI | 44 | 9 | 60 |
Jason Wood | KC | BUF | TEN | CAR | NYJ | LAR | MIN | NO | JAC | DAL | SEA | DEN | CIN | NE | PHI | 47 | 9 | 53 |
James Brimacombe | KC | TB | TEN | CAR | MIA | ARI | MIN | GB | JAC | DAL | SEA | LAC | PIT | ATL | PHI | 49 | 8 | 51 |
Keith Roberts | KC | BUF | TEN | CHI | MIA | ARI | MIN | NO | JAC | DAL | NYG | LAC | PIT | NE | WAS | 46 | 8 | 53 |
Alessandro Miglio | KC | TB | CLE | CAR | NYJ | LAR | MIN | GB | IND | SF | NYG | DEN | CIN | NE | PHI | 48 | 7 | 50 |
Danny Tuccitto | KC | TB | CLE | CAR | MIA | LAR | MIN | GB | JAC | SF | NYG | DEN | PIT | NE | WAS | 49 | 7 | 60 |
John Mamula | KC | BUF | TEN | CAR | MIA | LAR | BAL | NO | JAC | SF | SEA | DEN | PIT | NE | PHI | 50 | 7 | 54 |
Phil Alexander | KC | BUF | CLE | CAR | MIA | LAR | BAL | NO | IND | DAL | NYG | LAC | PIT | NE | WAS | 48 | 7 | 55 |
Andy Hicks | OAK | TB | CLE | CHI | MIA | ARI | MIN | GB | IND | SF | NYG | LAC | CIN | ATL | WAS | 56 | 6 | 52 |
Jeff Haseley | KC | BUF | TEN | CAR | MIA | LAR | MIN | GB | IND | DAL | NYG | DEN | PIT | NE | PHI | 47 | 6 | 48 |
Justin Bonnema | KC | BUF | TEN | CAR | NYJ | ARI | MIN | NO | JAC | SF | NYG | LAC | CIN | NE | WAS | 48 | 6 | 54 |
Mark Wimer | KC | BUF | TEN | CAR | MIA | LAR | MIN | GB | JAC | DAL | NYG | DEN | PIT | ATL | PHI | 48 | 6 | 54 |
Stephen Holloway | OAK | BUF | TEN | CAR | MIA | LAR | BAL | GB | IND | DAL | NYG | DEN | PIT | NE | PHI | 47 | 6 | 55 |
William Grant | KC | BUF | CLE | CHI | MIA | LAR | MIN | GB | JAC | SF | NYG | DEN | CIN | ATL | PHI | 51 | 6 | 54 |
Chris Feery | KC | BUF | TEN | CHI | NYJ | ARI | MIN | GB | IND | SF | NYG | DEN | PIT | NE | WAS | 51 | 5 | 50 |
Justin Howe | OAK | BUF | CLE | CHI | NYJ | ARI | BAL | NO | IND | SF | NYG | DEN | CIN | ATL | WAS | 45 | 5 | 48 |
Time to pat myself on the back for a change, as I finally won one of these weeks! I went 12 for 15, 80% against the spread, outdistancing the rest of the staff by two games. Matt Bitonti put in a solid effort going 10-5 on the week, and the staff as a whole was just over .500 (166-164, 50.3%). That pushes the staff as a whole up to just over 50% as well for the year (1178-1154. also 50.3%). Losses by Tennessee (16), Carolina (15) and the Giants (16) accounted for nearly 50 of the Week 7 losses, but there is still plenty of season left to go, so let's take a look at what Week 8 looks like.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week.
Road Team: | MIA | MIN | CAR | CHI | ATL | SF | IND | OAK | LAC | HOU | DAL | PIT | DEN | |
Home Team: | BAL | CLE | TB | NO | NYJ | PHI | CIN | BUF | NE | SEA | WAS | DET | KC | |
Favorite: | BAL | MIN | TB | NO | ATL | PHI | CIN | BUF | NE | SEA | DAL | PIT | KC | |
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -9.5 | -2.5 | -8.5 | -4.5 | -12.5 | -9.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | -5.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | MNF |
Staffer | The Picks | Tot Pts | ||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | MIA | MIN | CAR | NO | NYJ | PHI | IND | BUF | LAC | SEA | DAL | PIT | KC | 41 |
Aaron Rudnicki | MIA | MIN | TB | NO | ATL | SF | CIN | BUF | LAC | HOU | DAL | PIT | DEN | 44 |
Alessandro Miglio | MIA | CLE | TB | CHI | NYJ | SF | IND | BUF | NE | SEA | WAS | PIT | DEN | 47 |
Andrew Garda | MIA | MIN | TB | CHI | ATL | PHI | IND | OAK | NE | SEA | DAL | PIT | KC | 45 |
Andy Hicks | MIA | CLE | CAR | CHI | NYJ | SF | CIN | BUF | NE | SEA | WAS | DET | DEN | 48 |
Bear Heiser | MIA | MIN | CAR | NO | ATL | PHI | IND | OAK | NE | HOU | WAS | DET | KC | 48 |
Chris Feery | MIA | MIN | CAR | CHI | ATL | PHI | CIN | BUF | LAC | SEA | WAS | PIT | DEN | 45 |
Danny Tuccitto | MIA | MIN | CAR | NO | NYJ | PHI | CIN | BUF | NE | HOU | WAS | DET | KC | 49 |
Dave Larkin | BAL | CLE | CAR | NO | NYJ | SF | IND | OAK | NE | SEA | WAS | DET | KC | 37 |
Devin Knotts | MIA | CLE | TB | NO | ATL | PHI | IND | OAK | LAC | SEA | DAL | DET | KC | 44 |
James Brimacombe | MIA | MIN | CAR | NO | ATL | PHI | CIN | OAK | NE | SEA | DAL | DET | DEN | 44 |
Jason Wood | MIA | MIN | CAR | CHI | ATL | SF | IND | OAK | NE | SEA | DAL | DET | DEN | 44 |
Jeff Haseley | MIA | MIN | CAR | NO | NYJ | PHI | IND | BUF | NE | SEA | WAS | DET | KC | 43 |
John Mamula | MIA | CLE | TB | NO | NYJ | PHI | CIN | BUF | NE | HOU | DAL | PIT | DEN | 48 |
Justin Bonnema | BAL | MIN | TB | NO | ATL | SF | IND | BUF | LAC | SEA | DAL | DET | DEN | 48 |
Justin Howe | MIA | CLE | TB | NO | ATL | PHI | CIN | BUF | NE | SEA | DAL | DET | DEN | 42 |
Keith Roberts | MIA | MIN | TB | CHI | ATL | PHI | CIN | OAK | LAC | SEA | DAL | PIT | DEN | 41 |
Mark Wimer | MIA | MIN | TB | NO | ATL | PHI | CIN | OAK | NE | SEA | DAL | PIT | KC | 35 |
Matt Bitonti | MIA | MIN | TB | CHI | ATL | PHI | CIN | BUF | NE | HOU | DAL | PIT | KC | 45 |
Phil Alexander | BAL | MIN | CAR | NO | ATL | PHI | IND | OAK | LAC | SEA | WAS | DET | KC | 42 |
Stephen Holloway | MIA | CLE | TB | NO | NYJ | PHI | CIN | BUF | NE | HOU | WAS | DET | KC | 44 |
William Grant | MIA | CLE | TB | CHI | ATL | PHI | IND | OAK | NE | HOU | WAS | PIT | DEN | 41 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
The staff is still not on board with one clear choice for Week 8, but the closest is actually the Miami Dolphins against Baltimore on Thursday. Miami was chosen 19 of 22 times, while no other team was selected by more than 75% of the staff. The Eagles (16) are big favorites over the 49ers, but still the staff is on board with Philadelphia winning in a shootout. New England and Seattle are the next popular teams as touchdown home favorites, and both were chosen 15 times this week. Minnesota, Atlanta and New Orleans each had 14, and the Vikings and Falcons were the top road teams chosen on a week where few road teams were majority selections - and it should be noted that Minnesota is not a true road team as they face Cleveland in London, England. Four other teams are slight favorites (Tampa Bay, Buffalo), Dallas, Detroit) by the staff, while two other games were dead heats (Cincinnati / Indianapolis and Denver / Kansas City). Once again, Week 8 has all the makings of yet another very interesting week in the NFL and for the staff picks.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are seven weeks into the season - nearly half of the games have been played - and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com