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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | CHI | NYG | BUF | WAS | OAK | NO | MIN | BAL | IND | CLE | SD | TB | NE | SEA | HOU | |||
Home Team: | GB | LAR | MIA | DET | JAC | KC | PHI | NYJ | TEN | CIN | ATL | SF | PIT | ARI | DEN | |||
Favorite: | GB | NYG | BUF | DET | JAC | KC | MIN | NYJ | TEN | CIN | ATL | TB | NE | ARI | DEN | |||
Point Spread: | -9.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -9.5 | -6.5 | -1.5 | -7.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | |||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | ||||||||||||||
Jason Wood | CHI | NYG | MIA | DET | OAK | NO | PHI | BAL | IND | CLE | SD | TB | NE | SEA | HOU | 38 | 11 | 54 |
Dave Larkin | CHI | NYG | BUF | DET | OAK | NO | MIN | NYJ | IND | CIN | SD | SF | PIT | SEA | DEN | 45 | 10 | 54 |
James Brimacombe | GB | LAR | MIA | DET | JAC | NO | PHI | BAL | IND | CIN | SD | TB | NE | ARI | HOU | 43 | 10 | 58 |
Alessandro Miglio | CHI | LAR | MIA | DET | OAK | NO | MIN | NYJ | TEN | CIN | ATL | TB | PIT | SEA | DEN | 44 | 9 | 44 |
Clayton Gray | CHI | LAR | BUF | DET | OAK | NO | MIN | NYJ | TEN | CIN | ATL | TB | NE | SEA | DEN | 37 | 9 | 54 |
Justin Bonnema | CHI | NYG | BUF | DET | OAK | NO | PHI | BAL | IND | CIN | ATL | TB | NE | ARI | HOU | 46 | 9 | 49 |
Chris Kuczynski | CHI | NYG | BUF | DET | OAK | NO | MIN | BAL | IND | CIN | ATL | SF | NE | SEA | HOU | 44 | 8 | 49 |
Danny Tuccitto | CHI | NYG | MIA | WAS | OAK | NO | MIN | BAL | IND | CLE | ATL | SF | NE | SEA | DEN | 49 | 8 | 60 |
Aaron Rudnicki | CHI | NYG | BUF | WAS | OAK | KC | MIN | BAL | IND | CIN | ATL | TB | NE | ARI | DEN | 39 | 7 | 53 |
Andy Hicks | CHI | LAR | MIA | DET | JAC | KC | PHI | NYJ | TEN | CIN | SD | SF | PIT | ARI | DEN | 35 | 7 | 53 |
Bear Heiser | CHI | NYG | BUF | DET | OAK | KC | MIN | BAL | TEN | CIN | ATL | TB | NE | ARI | DEN | 42 | 7 | 51 |
Justin Howe | CHI | LAR | BUF | DET | JAC | NO | MIN | NYJ | TEN | CLE | SD | TB | NE | SEA | HOU | 41 | 7 | 59 |
Matt Bitonti | CHI | NYG | BUF | DET | OAK | NO | MIN | BAL | TEN | CLE | ATL | TB | NE | SEA | HOU | 59 | 7 | 49 |
William Grant | CHI | LAR | BUF | WAS | OAK | NO | MIN | NYJ | TEN | CLE | SD | TB | NE | ARI | DEN | 44 | 7 | 47 |
Jeff Pasquino | GB | LAR | BUF | WAS | JAC | KC | MIN | BAL | TEN | CIN | SD | TB | NE | ARI | DEN | 43 | 6 | 50 |
Andrew Garda | CHI | LAR | BUF | WAS | OAK | KC | MIN | BAL | IND | CIN | ATL | SF | NE | SEA | DEN | 60 | 6 | 47 |
Devin Knotts | CHI | LAR | BUF | DET | JAC | NO | MIN | BAL | IND | CLE | ATL | TB | NE | ARI | DEN | 44 | 6 | 48 |
Jeff Haseley | CHI | NYG | BUF | WAS | JAC | KC | MIN | BAL | TEN | CIN | SD | TB | NE | ARI | DEN | 36 | 6 | 43 |
John Mamula | CHI | LAR | BUF | DET | JAC | KC | MIN | NYJ | IND | CLE | SD | TB | NE | ARI | HOU | 42 | 6 | 50 |
Mark Wimer | CHI | NYG | BUF | DET | JAC | KC | MIN | BAL | TEN | CIN | ATL | TB | NE | ARI | DEN | 42 | 6 | 55 |
Phil Alexander | CHI | LAR | BUF | DET | JAC | KC | MIN | NYJ | IND | CIN | ATL | SF | NE | SEA | HOU | 33 | 6 | 52 |
Chris Feery | CHI | NYG | BUF | WAS | OAK | NO | MIN | BAL | TEN | CLE | ATL | SF | NE | ARI | DEN | 40 | 5 | 51 |
Keith Roberts | CHI | LAR | BUF | DET | JAC | NO | MIN | BAL | TEN | CIN | ATL | TB | NE | ARI | HOU | 38 | 5 | 47 |
This week had just one staff member (Jason Wood) atop the standings, as he went 11-4 on the week. Two other staffers (Dave Larkin, James Brimacombe) hit the 10 win mark, and it should be pointed out that they did it with two teams on a bye, so that makes their 10-5 records all the more impressive. The staff overall had a rough showing again, with only five others at eight or nine wins and posting a winning record for the week. Needless to say, it has been a tough season. Once again the staff finished below .500 (168-177, 48.7%). Keep in mind that a lot can happen in a day or two, and the picks are due on Wednesday night, so it is not surprising to see the group below the mark overall. Hopefully this is the week that will mark the turning point for the staff on the way to a winning path for the rest of the season.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | JAC | WAS | KC | DET | SEA | ARI | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | GB | PHI | MIN | |
Home Team: | TEN | CIN | IND | HOU | NO | CAR | CLE | TB | BUF | DEN | ATL | DAL | CHI | |
Favorite: | TEN | CIN | KC | HOU | SEA | CAR | NYJ | TB | NE | DEN | ATL | DAL | MIN | |
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -5.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -0.5 | -2.5 | -0.5 | -4.5 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | ||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | JAC | WAS | KC | DET | NO | CAR | NYJ | TB | NE | DEN | GB | PHI | MIN | 33 |
Aaron Rudnicki | TEN | CIN | KC | HOU | SEA | ARI | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 42 |
Alessandro Miglio | TEN | CIN | IND | HOU | SEA | CAR | NYJ | TB | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 42 |
Andrew Garda | TEN | CIN | KC | HOU | NO | ARI | NYJ | OAK | NE | DEN | GB | DAL | MIN | 40 |
Andy Hicks | JAC | WAS | IND | DET | SEA | CAR | CLE | TB | BUF | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 31 |
Bear Heiser | TEN | CIN | KC | DET | NO | CAR | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 26 |
Chris Feery | TEN | WAS | KC | DET | NO | ARI | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 40 |
Chris Kuczynski | TEN | CIN | KC | DET | SEA | ARI | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 31 |
Clayton Gray | TEN | CIN | KC | DET | SEA | CAR | NYJ | TB | NE | SD | ATL | PHI | MIN | 31 |
Danny Tuccitto | JAC | CIN | IND | HOU | NO | ARI | CLE | OAK | NE | SD | GB | PHI | CHI | 49 |
Dave Larkin | TEN | WAS | IND | HOU | SEA | CAR | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | PHI | MIN | 37 |
Devin Knotts | TEN | CIN | IND | HOU | NO | CAR | NYJ | TB | NE | DEN | ATL | DAL | CHI | 40 |
James Brimacombe | JAC | WAS | IND | HOU | SEA | CAR | NYJ | OAK | NE | DEN | GB | PHI | MIN | 42 |
Jason Wood | TEN | WAS | IND | DET | NO | CAR | NYJ | TB | NE | SD | GB | PHI | MIN | 44 |
Jeff Haseley | JAC | WAS | IND | HOU | NO | CAR | CLE | TB | NE | SD | ATL | PHI | CHI | 34 |
John Mamula | JAC | CIN | KC | HOU | SEA | CAR | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 38 |
Justin Bonnema | JAC | CIN | IND | DET | NO | CAR | CLE | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 48 |
Justin Howe | JAC | WAS | KC | DET | NO | CAR | NYJ | OAK | NE | DEN | GB | PHI | MIN | 40 |
Keith Roberts | TEN | WAS | KC | DET | NO | ARI | CLE | TB | NE | DEN | GB | DAL | MIN | 36 |
Mark Wimer | TEN | WAS | KC | HOU | NO | ARI | NYJ | TB | NE | DEN | ATL | PHI | MIN | 27 |
Matt Bitonti | TEN | CIN | IND | DET | NO | ARI | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 46 |
Phil Alexander | TEN | WAS | IND | HOU | NO | CAR | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 24 |
William Grant | TEN | CIN | KC | DET | SEA | ARI | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | PHI | MIN | 42 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
With seven weeks now behind us, we should be getting closer to some collective understanding as to which teams are good and which are bad. Of course, the point spread is the great equalizer, and Las Vegas does their job quite well - but the website we use to log our picks had some difficulties with line movements. Carolina, the Jets, New England and Minnesota all saw their lines move in favor of the team by 2-3 points, which tilted a lot of the choices towards those teams. Hey, free points are free points, so take the choices of these squads with a big grain of salt this week. It comes as no surprise then that the Patriots (22 of 23), Vikings (20 of 23) and Jets (18 of 23) lead the pack in choices for Week 8. The rest of the picks were rather close together, but road underdog San Diego (16), home favorite Atlanta (16) and Thursday night host Tennessee (15) had a reasonable majority of selections. Week 8 looks to be yet another interesting week, so let's see how it all plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are getting close to the midpoint of the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.