Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (22) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored in the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from this week.
Road Team: | PHI | GB | CLE | MIA | SF | CHI | DET | NE | LAR | TB | LAC | PIT | NYG | IND | |||
Home Team: | CAR | MIN | HOU | ATL | WAS | BAL | NO | NYJ | JAC | ARI | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | |||
Favorite: | CAR | GB | HOU | ATL | WAS | BAL | NO | NE | JAC | TB | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | |||
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -3.5 | -9.5 | -10.5 | -9.5 | -6.5 | -4.5 | -9.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -11.5 | -1.5 | MNF | Last | Year to |
Staffer | Last Week's Picks | Tot Pts | Week | Date | |||||||||||||
Dave Larkin | PHI | GB | HOU | MIA | SF | CHI | NO | NE | LAR | ARI | LAC | KC | NYG | TEN | 48 | 11 | 51 |
Devin Knotts | PHI | GB | CLE | ATL | SF | CHI | NO | NYJ | LAR | TB | LAC | KC | NYG | TEN | 45 | 9 | 51 |
Stephen Holloway | PHI | GB | HOU | ATL | SF | BAL | NO | NE | LAR | ARI | LAC | KC | NYG | TEN | 44 | 9 | 49 |
Aaron Rudnick | PHI | GB | CLE | MIA | SF | CHI | NO | NE | JAC | ARI | LAC | KC | DEN | TEN | 44 | 8 | 45 |
Matt Bitonti | PHI | GB | CLE | ATL | SF | CHI | NO | NYJ | JAC | TB | LAC | PIT | DEN | TEN | 52 | 8 | 49 |
Andy Hicks | CAR | MIN | CLE | MIA | SF | CHI | DET | NYJ | JAC | ARI | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | 41 | 7 | 46 |
Chris Feery | PHI | GB | CLE | ATL | WAS | CHI | DET | NYJ | LAR | TB | LAC | PIT | DEN | TEN | 39 | 7 | 45 |
Danny Tuccitt | PHI | MIN | HOU | MIA | WAS | BAL | DET | NYJ | JAC | ARI | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | 49 | 7 | 53 |
James Brimaco | PHI | GB | HOU | ATL | WAS | CHI | DET | NE | JAC | ARI | LAC | PIT | DEN | TEN | 44 | 7 | 43 |
Keith Roberts | PHI | GB | HOU | ATL | SF | CHI | NO | NYJ | JAC | TB | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | 40 | 7 | 45 |
Alessandro Mi | CAR | GB | CLE | MIA | SF | CHI | NO | NYJ | JAC | TB | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | 44 | 6 | 43 |
Andrew Garda | CAR | GB | HOU | MIA | WAS | CHI | DET | NYJ | JAC | TB | OAK | KC | NYG | TEN | 55 | 6 | 49 |
Bear Heiser | PHI | MIN | HOU | ATL | SF | BAL | DET | NE | JAC | TB | LAC | KC | DEN | TEN | 38 | 6 | 46 |
Jason Wood | PHI | GB | HOU | ATL | SF | CHI | DET | NE | JAC | TB | LAC | KC | DEN | TEN | 39 | 6 | 44 |
John Mamula | PHI | GB | HOU | ATL | WAS | BAL | NO | NE | JAC | ARI | LAC | KC | DEN | TEN | 40 | 6 | 47 |
Justin Bonnem | PHI | GB | HOU | ATL | SF | BAL | NO | NE | JAC | ARI | LAC | KC | DEN | IND | 48 | 6 | 48 |
William Grant | PHI | GB | HOU | ATL | WAS | CHI | DET | NYJ | LAR | TB | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | 36 | 6 | 48 |
Jeff Pasquino | CAR | GB | HOU | ATL | SF | BAL | NO | NE | LAR | TB | LAC | KC | DEN | IND | 43 | 5 | 39 |
Justin Howe | PHI | MIN | CLE | ATL | SF | BAL | DET | NYJ | JAC | ARI | OAK | KC | DEN | IND | 41 | 5 | 43 |
Mark Wimer | PHI | GB | HOU | ATL | SF | BAL | NO | NE | JAC | TB | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | 37 | 5 | 48 |
Phil Alexande | CAR | GB | CLE | ATL | WAS | BAL | DET | NE | LAR | ARI | LAC | PIT | DEN | TEN | 45 | 5 | 48 |
Jeff Haseley | CAR | GB | HOU | ATL | WAS | BAL | DET | NYJ | JAC | ARI | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | 48 | 4 | 42 |
It has been an up and down season for the staff. The first three weeks were tough on the group, with a historically bad Week 3 that pushed the staff under 50% for the season. The good news is that the staff had a strong Week 4, racking up 30 more correct picks than incorrect (191-161, 54.3%), which is the first true winning week even when you factor in the Las Vegas house advantage (to beat the house, you must go over 52.3%). This helped the group get closer to 50% on the year (674-712, 48.6%). Then came Week 5, which was probably one of the best performances since we started doing this as a staff, as the entire group crushed their picks, going 192-116 (62.3%) which would have been way up there had this group descended on a Las Vegas Sportsbook and played those selections. Week 6 was a harsh dose of reality, as the staff was under 50% once again, going 16 games under .500 (146-162, 47.4%). Dave Larkin was the clear winner at 11-3 on the week, and no other staffer did better than 9-5 in Week 6. Overall the staff now sits just over 51% (1,022-980), but there is still plenty of season left. Let's see what Week 7 looks like.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week.
Road Team: | KC | TB | TEN | CAR | NYJ | ARI | BAL | NO | JAC | DAL | SEA | DEN | CIN | ATL | WAS | |
Home Team: | OAK | BUF | CLE | CHI | MIA | LAR | MIN | GB | IND | SF | NYG | LAC | PIT | NE | PHI | |
Favorite: | KC | BUF | TEN | CAR | MIA | LAR | MIN | NO | JAC | DAL | SEA | LAC | PIT | NE | PHI | |
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -6.5 | -1.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | MNF |
Staffer | The Picks | Tot Pts | ||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | KC | TB | TEN | CAR | NYJ | LAR | MIN | NO | JAC | DAL | SEA | LAC | PIT | NE | PHI | 47 |
Aaron RudnickI | OAK | TB | TEN | CHI | NYJ | ARI | MIN | NO | IND | DAL | SEA | DEN | CIN | NE | WAS | 46 |
Alessandro Miglio | KC | TB | CLE | CAR | NYJ | LAR | MIN | GB | IND | SF | NYG | DEN | CIN | NE | PHI | 48 |
Andrew Garda | KC | BUF | TEN | CAR | NYJ | LAR | MIN | NO | JAC | DAL | NYG | DEN | PIT | NE | PHI | 50 |
Andy Hicks | OAK | TB | CLE | CHI | MIA | ARI | MIN | GB | IND | SF | NYG | LAC | CIN | ATL | WAS | 56 |
Bear Heiser | KC | BUF | TEN | CAR | MIA | ARI | MIN | NO | JAC | DAL | SEA | LAC | PIT | NE | PHI | 56 |
Chris Feery | KC | BUF | TEN | CHI | NYJ | ARI | MIN | GB | IND | SF | NYG | DEN | PIT | NE | WAS | 51 |
Danny Tuccitto | KC | TB | CLE | CAR | MIA | LAR | MIN | GB | JAC | SF | NYG | DEN | PIT | NE | WAS | 49 |
Dave Larkin | OAK | TB | TEN | CAR | NYJ | LAR | BAL | GB | JAC | DAL | NYG | LAC | CIN | NE | PHI | 51 |
Devin Knotts | KC | TB | TEN | CAR | NYJ | ARI | BAL | NO | JAC | DAL | NYG | LAC | PIT | NE | PHI | 44 |
James Brimacombe | KC | TB | TEN | CAR | MIA | ARI | MIN | GB | JAC | DAL | SEA | LAC | PIT | ATL | PHI | 49 |
Jason Wood | KC | BUF | TEN | CAR | NYJ | LAR | MIN | NO | JAC | DAL | SEA | DEN | CIN | NE | PHI | 47 |
Jeff Haseley | KC | BUF | TEN | CAR | MIA | LAR | MIN | GB | IND | DAL | NYG | DEN | PIT | NE | PHI | 47 |
John Mamula | KC | BUF | TEN | CAR | MIA | LAR | BAL | NO | JAC | SF | SEA | DEN | PIT | NE | PHI | 50 |
Justin Bonnema | KC | BUF | TEN | CAR | NYJ | ARI | MIN | NO | JAC | SF | NYG | LAC | CIN | NE | WAS | 48 |
Justin Howe | OAK | BUF | CLE | CHI | NYJ | ARI | BAL | NO | IND | SF | NYG | DEN | CIN | ATL | WAS | 45 |
Keith Roberts | KC | BUF | TEN | CHI | MIA | ARI | MIN | NO | JAC | DAL | NYG | LAC | PIT | NE | WAS | 46 |
Mark Wimer | KC | BUF | TEN | CAR | MIA | LAR | MIN | GB | JAC | DAL | NYG | DEN | PIT | ATL | PHI | 48 |
Matt Bitonti | OAK | TB | TEN | CHI | NYJ | ARI | MIN | NO | IND | DAL | NYG | LAC | PIT | ATL | PHI | 52 |
Phil Alexander | KC | BUF | CLE | CAR | MIA | LAR | BAL | NO | IND | DAL | NYG | LAC | PIT | NE | WAS | 48 |
Stephen Holloway | OAK | BUF | TEN | CAR | MIA | LAR | BAL | GB | IND | DAL | NYG | DEN | PIT | NE | PHI | 47 |
William Grant | KC | BUF | CLE | CHI | MIA | LAR | MIN | GB | JAC | SF | NYG | DEN | CIN | ATL | PHI | 51 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
This week feels a lot like a few weeks back where all the road teams were favorites (Week 3, to be exact). As I mentioned last week, the NFL loves to play with their schedule, and there are 256 games every season, which pretty much guarantees that there will be some very interesting weeks. Week 7 has just two teams on a bye this time (Detroit and Houston), but once again we have a lot of road favorites on tap but no extremely large point spreads. That led the staff down a tricky road, as no team was even close to a consensus pick. Five teams recieved 16 of 22 picks - two home favorites (Minnesota and New England), two road favorites (Kansas City and Tennessee) and one home underdog in the New York Giants. There was only one other underdog chosen by the majority, and it was close (12-10) with Denver barely more popular than the Chargers, which is interesting considering how poor of a showing the Broncos had last week at home against those same Giants. Three more road favorites were chosen by the majority - Carolina (15, at Chicago), Dallas (14, at San Francisco) and Jacksonville (13, at Indianapolis). Four home teams round out the picks with all of them favorites as well - Pittsburgh (14, hosting Cincinnati), Philadelphia (14, hosting Washington), Buffalo (13, hosting Tampa Bay) and the Los Angeles Rams (13, facing Arizona). The Rams are not really a home team considering the game against the Cardinals is in London (Surprise!). Finally, one game was split down the middle as the Jets and Miami Dolphins each received 11 votes. Once again, Week 7 has all the makings of yet another very interesting week in the NFL and for the staff picks.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are six weeks into the season - just aabout a third of the games have been played (91 of 256, 35.5%) - and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com