Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (22) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored in the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from this week.
Road Team: | NE | TEN | SF | CAR | BUF | LAC | ARI | JAC | NYJ | SEA | BAL | GB | KC | MIN | |||
Home Team: | TB | MIA | IND | DET | CIN | NYG | PHI | PIT | CLE | LAR | OAK | DAL | HOU | CHI | |||
Favorite: | NE | TEN | IND | DET | CIN | NYG | PHI | PIT | CLE | LAR | OAK | DAL | KC | MIN | |||
Point Spread: | -5.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -8.5 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -2.5 | MNF | Last | Year to |
Staffer | Last Week's Picks | Tot Pts | Week | Date | |||||||||||||
Danny Tuccitto | TB | MIA | IND | CAR | BUF | LAC | PHI | JAC | NYJ | SEA | BAL | GB | KC | MIN | 49 | 13 | 46 |
James Brimacombe | NE | MIA | IND | CAR | BUF | LAC | PHI | PIT | NYJ | SEA | BAL | GB | KC | MIN | 42 | 11 | 36 |
William Grant | TB | MIA | IND | CAR | BUF | LAC | PHI | PIT | NYJ | LAR | BAL | GB | KC | MIN | 33 | 11 | 42 |
Keith Roberts | NE | MIA | IND | CAR | BUF | NYG | PHI | JAC | NYJ | LAR | BAL | GB | KC | MIN | 35 | 10 | 38 |
Jeff Pasquino | TB | TEN | SF | CAR | BUF | LAC | PHI | PIT | NYJ | SEA | OAK | GB | KC | MIN | 44 | 9 | 34 |
Aaron Rudnicki | NE | TEN | IND | CAR | BUF | LAC | ARI | JAC | NYJ | SEA | BAL | GB | HOU | MIN | 40 | 9 | 37 |
Chris Feery | NE | MIA | IND | DET | BUF | LAC | ARI | JAC | NYJ | LAR | BAL | GB | KC | MIN | 45 | 9 | 38 |
Justin Howe | NE | MIA | IND | CAR | BUF | NYG | ARI | JAC | NYJ | SEA | BAL | DAL | KC | MIN | 41 | 9 | 38 |
Mark Wimer | NE | MIA | IND | DET | CIN | LAC | PHI | JAC | NYJ | LAR | OAK | GB | HOU | MIN | 42 | 9 | 43 |
Stephen Holloway | TB | TEN | IND | CAR | BUF | NYG | PHI | JAC | NYJ | SEA | OAK | GB | HOU | MIN | 39 | 9 | 40 |
Andrew Garda | NE | MIA | IND | DET | BUF | NYG | PHI | PIT | NYJ | LAR | BAL | GB | KC | MIN | 48 | 8 | 33 |
Bear Heiser | TB | MIA | IND | DET | BUF | NYG | PHI | PIT | NYJ | SEA | BAL | DAL | HOU | MIN | 38 | 8 | 40 |
Dave Larkin | TB | TEN | SF | CAR | CIN | NYG | PHI | JAC | CLE | LAR | BAL | GB | HOU | MIN | 47 | 8 | 40 |
Devin Knotts | TB | MIA | IND | DET | BUF | LAC | ARI | JAC | CLE | SEA | OAK | DAL | KC | MIN | 39 | 8 | 42 |
Jason Wood | NE | TEN | SF | DET | BUF | LAC | PHI | JAC | NYJ | LAR | BAL | GB | KC | MIN | 39 | 8 | 38 |
Jeff Haseley | TB | TEN | IND | DET | CIN | NYG | PHI | PIT | NYJ | SEA | OAK | DAL | KC | MIN | 44 | 8 | 38 |
John Mamula | NE | TEN | IND | CAR | BUF | LAC | PHI | PIT | NYJ | LAR | OAK | GB | KC | MIN | 40 | 8 | 41 |
Justin Bonnema | NE | MIA | IND | DET | CIN | NYG | ARI | PIT | NYJ | SEA | BAL | GB | HOU | MIN | 48 | 8 | 42 |
Matt Bitonti | TB | MIA | SF | CAR | BUF | LAC | PHI | PIT | NYJ | LAR | BAL | GB | HOU | CHI | 48 | 8 | 41 |
Phil Alexander | NE | MIA | SF | DET | CIN | LAC | PHI | JAC | CLE | SEA | BAL | DAL | KC | CHI | 36 | 8 | 43 |
Alessandro Miglio | TB | MIA | IND | DET | BUF | NYG | ARI | JAC | CLE | SEA | OAK | GB | HOU | MIN | 45 | 7 | 37 |
Andy Hicks | TB | MIA | IND | DET | CIN | NYG | PHI | PIT | CLE | LAR | OAK | DAL | HOU | MIN | 37 | 6 | 39 |
It has been an up and down season for the staff. The first three weeks were tough on the group, with a historically bad Week 3 that pushed the staff under 50% for the season. The good news is that the staff had a strong Week 4, racking up 30 more correct picks than incorrect (191-161, 54.3%), which is the first true winning week even when you factor in the Las Vegas house advantage (to beat the house, you must go over 52.3%). This helped the group get closer to 50% on the year (674-712, 48.6%).
Then came last week.
In what could be one of the best performances since we started doing this as a staff, the entire group crushed their picks, going 192-116 (62.3%) which would have been way up there had this group descended on a Las Vegas Sportsbook and played those selections. All but two out of the 22 staffers had a winning week, led by Danny Tuccitto's nearly perfect week where he went 13-1, just missing on his pick of the Bills by a single point. Remarkable. James Brimacombe and Will Grant tied for second with an 11-3 week, which just shows how big a performance Danny had. The staff now stands on a solid +38 game record (866-828, 51.1%), and the Las Vegas winning rate (52.3%) is within reach. Will we continue in Week 6?
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week.
Road Team: | PHI | GB | CLE | MIA | SF | CHI | DET | NE | LAR | TB | LAC | PIT | NYG | IND | |
Home Team: | CAR | MIN | HOU | ATL | WAS | BAL | NO | NYJ | JAC | ARI | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | |
Favorite: | CAR | GB | HOU | ATL | WAS | BAL | NO | NE | JAC | TB | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | |
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -3.5 | -9.5 | -10.5 | -9.5 | -6.5 | -4.5 | -9.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -11.5 | -1.5 | MNF |
Staffer | The Picks | Tot Pts | |||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | CAR | GB | HOU | ATL | SF | BAL | NO | NE | LAR | TB | LAC | KC | DEN | IND | 43 |
Aaron Rudnick | PHI | GB | CLE | MIA | SF | CHI | NO | NE | JAC | ARI | LAC | KC | DEN | TEN | 44 |
Alessandro Mi | CAR | GB | CLE | MIA | SF | CHI | NO | NYJ | JAC | TB | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | 44 |
Andrew Garda | CAR | GB | HOU | MIA | WAS | CHI | DET | NYJ | JAC | TB | OAK | KC | NYG | TEN | 55 |
Andy Hicks | CAR | MIN | CLE | MIA | SF | CHI | DET | NYJ | JAC | ARI | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | 41 |
Bear Heiser | PHI | MIN | HOU | ATL | SF | BAL | DET | NE | JAC | TB | LAC | KC | DEN | TEN | 38 |
Chris Feery | PHI | GB | CLE | ATL | WAS | CHI | DET | NYJ | LAR | TB | LAC | PIT | DEN | TEN | 39 |
Danny Tuccitt | PHI | MIN | HOU | MIA | WAS | BAL | DET | NYJ | JAC | ARI | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | 49 |
Dave Larkin | PHI | GB | HOU | MIA | SF | CHI | NO | NE | LAR | ARI | LAC | KC | NYG | TEN | 48 |
James Brimaco | PHI | GB | HOU | ATL | WAS | CHI | DET | NE | JAC | ARI | LAC | PIT | DEN | TEN | 44 |
Jason Wood | PHI | GB | HOU | ATL | SF | CHI | DET | NE | JAC | TB | LAC | KC | DEN | TEN | 39 |
Jeff Haseley | CAR | GB | HOU | ATL | WAS | BAL | DET | NYJ | JAC | ARI | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | 48 |
John Mamula | PHI | GB | HOU | ATL | WAS | BAL | NO | NE | JAC | ARI | LAC | KC | DEN | TEN | 40 |
Justin Bonnem | PHI | GB | HOU | ATL | SF | BAL | NO | NE | JAC | ARI | LAC | KC | DEN | IND | 48 |
Justin Howe | PHI | MIN | CLE | ATL | SF | BAL | DET | NYJ | JAC | ARI | OAK | KC | DEN | IND | 41 |
Keith Roberts | PHI | GB | HOU | ATL | SF | CHI | NO | NYJ | JAC | TB | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | 40 |
Mark Wimer | PHI | GB | HOU | ATL | SF | BAL | NO | NE | JAC | TB | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | 37 |
Matt Bitonti | PHI | GB | CLE | ATL | SF | CHI | NO | NYJ | JAC | TB | LAC | PIT | DEN | TEN | 52 |
Phil Alexande | CAR | GB | CLE | ATL | WAS | BAL | DET | NE | LAR | ARI | LAC | PIT | DEN | TEN | 45 |
Stephen Holloway | PHI | GB | HOU | ATL | SF | BAL | NO | NE | LAR | ARI | LAC | KC | NYG | TEN | 44 |
William Grant | PHI | GB | HOU | ATL | WAS | CHI | DET | NYJ | LAR | TB | OAK | KC | DEN | TEN | 36 |
Devin Knotts | PHI | GB | CLE | ATL | SF | CHI | NO | NYJ | LAR | TB | LAC | KC | NYG | TEN | 45 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
The NFL loves to play with their schedule. There are 256 games every season, which pretty much guarantees that there will be some ugly contests. In my experience, the league loves to stuff October with these games, simply because the NFL is not the King of the Hill in a very crowded month for sports. With playoff baseball (and NASCAR) and college football all in play, and with both the NBA and NHL leagues starting up, the NFL decided a while back to put many of their biggest mismatches in October. September gets some big games to kick off the year, but the better games do tend to head towards November and December. Sure, the league keeps a couple of good games on the docket each week, usually for a national broadcast (like Sunday Night Football and a game like Dallas-Green Bay), but this is why you see a lot of games where the spreads are big or you see plenty of teams on byes or two bad teams squaring off. Long story short, this is why October can be tougher to pick some of these games each week.
So in Week 6, there are four teams that were chosen by the staff by a big majority. Tennessee is really not on the board in most Sportsbooks, but CBS has the Titans listed as -1.5 favorites at home over the Colts. Most of the staff (19 of 22) went with Tennessee, even though Marcus Mariota is likely to miss this game. Denver (18 picks, hosting the Giants) is a big favorite on Sunday Night Football, and certainly NBC did not expect the Giants to be 0-5 heading into a national spotlight. Kansas City hosts the reeling Steelers, and most of the staff (18) think that the Chiefs will not only remain undefeated but also cover the 3.5 points. The Packers are the top road team chosen by the group, as Green Bay received 18 votes as they head to the Vikings on a short week for Minnesota and the Vikings will be again without their top quarterback( Sam Bradford), running back (Dalvin Cook) and possibly top receiver (Stefon Diggs). Another road team that received plenty of picks this week are the Eagles, who received 16 selections as they face the Panthers on the road on Thursday in a clash of 4-1 teams. Atlanta (16), Jacksonville (15) and Houston (14) were home favorites that were majority selections, and the big point spreads did not scare off fans of the Texans or Falcons. After those picks, several road underdogs started to get the bulk of the picks as the 49ers (14, at Washington), Chargers (13, at Oakland) and Bears (12, at Baltimore) got slight nods by the group. Finally, three contests were split down the middle - Detroit at New Orleans, New England at the Jets and Tampa Bay at Arizona all were evenly split at 11 picks each. It should be another very interesting week.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are five weeks into the season - just over a quarter of the games have been played - and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com