Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (22) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from this week.
Road Team: | HOU | PHI | TEN | MIN | ARI | NE | CHI | CLE | BUF | NYJ | MIA | DAL | SF | WAS | GB | DET | |||
Home Team: | CIN | KC | JAC | PIT | IND | NO | TB | BAL | CAR | OAK | LAC | DEN | SEA | LAR | ATL | NYG | |||
Favorite: | CIN | KC | TEN | PIT | ARI | NE | TB | BAL | CAR | OAK | LAC | DAL | SEA | LAR | ATL | NYG | |||
Point Spread: | -4.5 | -4.5 | -1.5 | -6.5 | -7.5 | -6.5 | -6.5 | -7.5 | -7.5 | -13.5 | -4.5 | -1.5 | -12.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | MNF | Last | Year to Date |
Staffer | Last Week's Picks | Total Pts | Week | Correct | |||||||||||||||
Steven Holloway | HOU | PHI | TEN | MIN | IND | NE | TB | BAL | CAR | OAK | LAC | DEN | SF | LAR | GB | DET | 45 | 10 | 18 |
Aaron Rudnicki | HOU | KC | TEN | MIN | ARI | NE | TB | CLE | BUF | OAK | MIA | DAL | SEA | LAR | GB | DET | 44 | 9 | 12 |
Andrew Garda | HOU | KC | JAC | PIT | ARI | NE | TB | CLE | CAR | OAK | MIA | DEN | SEA | LAR | GB | DET | 50 | 9 | 16 |
Dave Larkin | CIN | PHI | TEN | MIN | IND | NO | TB | BAL | BUF | OAK | LAC | DEN | SF | LAR | GB | DET | 38 | 9 | 18 |
Devin Knotts | CIN | PHI | TEN | PIT | IND | NE | TB | CLE | CAR | OAK | MIA | DAL | SF | LAR | GB | DET | 46 | 9 | 20 |
John Mamula | HOU | KC | TEN | PIT | ARI | NE | TB | BAL | CAR | OAK | LAC | DEN | SEA | LAR | GB | NYG | 45 | 9 | 17 |
Matt Bitonti | HOU | PHI | JAC | PIT | ARI | NE | TB | CLE | BUF | OAK | LAC | DAL | SF | WAS | ATL | NYG | 45 | 9 | 17 |
Andy Hicks | CIN | KC | JAC | MIN | IND | NO | TB | CLE | CAR | OAK | MIA | DEN | SEA | WAS | GB | DET | 44 | 8 | 17 |
Bear Heiser | CIN | KC | TEN | MIN | ARI | NE | CHI | BAL | BUF | OAK | LAC | DEN | SEA | LAR | GB | DET | 38 | 8 | 17 |
Danny Tuccitto | CIN | KC | JAC | MIN | IND | NO | TB | BAL | CAR | OAK | MIA | DEN | SEA | LAR | GB | DET | 49 | 8 | 14 |
Jeff Haseley | CIN | KC | JAC | MIN | IND | NE | TB | BAL | CAR | OAK | MIA | DAL | SEA | LAR | ATL | NYG | 49 | 8 | 14 |
Justin Bonnema | CIN | KC | TEN | MIN | ARI | NO | TB | CLE | BUF | OAK | LAC | DEN | SEA | WAS | GB | DET | 48 | 8 | 17 |
Mark Wimer | CIN | KC | TEN | PIT | ARI | NE | TB | BAL | CAR | OAK | LAC | DAL | SEA | LAR | ATL | NYG | 45 | 8 | 18 |
Phil Alexander | CIN | KC | TEN | MIN | IND | NE | CHI | BAL | CAR | NYJ | MIA | DAL | SEA | WAS | GB | DET | 47 | 8 | 17 |
William Grant | HOU | KC | TEN | PIT | ARI | NE | TB | CLE | CAR | OAK | MIA | DAL | SEA | LAR | GB | NYG | 44 | 8 | 15 |
Alessandro Miglio | HOU | KC | JAC | MIN | IND | NE | CHI | CLE | BUF | NYJ | MIA | DEN | SEA | LAR | GB | NYG | 46 | 7 | 15 |
Chris Feery | HOU | PHI | JAC | MIN | ARI | NE | TB | CLE | BUF | OAK | MIA | DEN | SEA | LAR | GB | NYG | 41 | 7 | 14 |
Keith Roberts | HOU | KC | TEN | MIN | ARI | NE | CHI | BAL | BUF | OAK | LAC | DAL | SEA | LAR | GB | NYG | 47 | 7 | 16 |
Jeff Pasquino | HOU | PHI | TEN | MIN | ARI | NE | TB | CLE | CAR | OAK | LAC | DAL | SEA | LAR | GB | DET | 47 | 6 | 12 |
James Brimacombe | HOU | PHI | JAC | MIN | ARI | NO | CHI | CLE | CAR | OAK | MIA | DEN | SEA | WAS | GB | DET | 51 | 6 | 13 |
Jason Wood | CIN | PHI | TEN | MIN | ARI | NE | TB | CLE | BUF | OAK | LAC | DAL | SF | LAR | GB | NYG | 43 | 6 | 15 |
Justin Howe | CIN | KC | TEN | MIN | ARI | NO | CHI | CLE | CAR | OAK | LAC | DAL | SEA | LAR | ATL | DET | 42 | 5 | 13 |
The first week is usually one of the hardest, but Week 2 was actually tougher for the the staff overall. After a strong showing in Week 1 with everyone combined posting a record of nearly 55% correct (173-142, 54.9%), the staff struggled to even come close to 50% (172-180, 48.9%). That step back lowered the combined average to just a shade over 50% (345-337, 50.6%) but the season is still very young. The winner of a tough Week 2 was Steven Holloway with 10 correct picks, and several more of the Footballguys' staff had nine correct. As I stated last week, several of us have to step up our game, including myself, but this is a marathon, not a sprint.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week.
Road Team: | LAR | BAL | ATL | CLE | NYG | TB | PIT | MIA | NO | DEN | HOU | SEA | CIN | KC | OAK | DAL | |
Home Team: | SF | JAC | DET | IND | PHI | MIN | CHI | NYJ | CAR | BUF | NE | TEN | GB | KC | WAS | ARI | |
Favorite: | LAR | BAL | ATL | IND | PHI | MIN | PIT | MIA | CAR | DEN | NE | TEN | GB | KC | OAK | DAL | |
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -1.5 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | -6.5 | -5.5 | -2.5 | -13.5 | -2.5 | -9.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | MNF |
Staffer | The Picks | Total Pts | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | LAR | JAC | ATL | CLE | PHI | MIN | PIT | MIA | CAR | DEN | NE | TEN | GB | KC | OAK | DAL | 40 |
Aaron Rudnicki | LAR | JAC | ATL | IND | NYG | TB | PIT | MIA | NO | DEN | NE | SEA | GB | LAC | WAS | DAL | 42 |
Alessandro Miglio | LAR | BAL | DET | IND | PHI | TB | CHI | NYJ | NO | DEN | HOU | SEA | GB | KC | OAK | DAL | 48 |
Andrew Garda | LAR | BAL | ATL | CLE | PHI | TB | PIT | MIA | CAR | DEN | NE | TEN | GB | KC | OAK | DAL | 50 |
Andy Hicks | LAR | JAC | DET | CLE | PHI | TB | CHI | MIA | NO | DEN | HOU | SEA | CIN | KC | OAK | DAL | 44 |
Bear Heiser | LAR | BAL | ATL | IND | PHI | TB | PIT | NYJ | NO | DEN | NE | SEA | GB | KC | OAK | DAL | 38 |
Chris Feery | LAR | BAL | DET | CLE | NYG | TB | CHI | MIA | NO | DEN | NE | TEN | CIN | KC | WAS | ARI | 43 |
Danny Tuccitto | SF | JAC | DET | IND | PHI | TB | CHI | NYJ | CAR | BUF | HOU | TEN | CIN | LAC | WAS | ARI | 49 |
Dave Larkin | LAR | BAL | DET | CLE | PHI | MIN | PIT | NYJ | NO | DEN | HOU | TEN | GB | KC | WAS | DAL | 41 |
Devin Knotts | LAR | JAC | DET | CLE | PHI | TB | PIT | NYJ | NO | DEN | HOU | TEN | CIN | LAC | OAK | DAL | 44 |
James Brimacombe | LAR | BAL | DET | CLE | PHI | TB | PIT | MIA | NO | DEN | NE | SEA | GB | LAC | WAS | DAL | 44 |
Jason Wood | LAR | JAC | ATL | CLE | PHI | TB | PIT | MIA | NO | DEN | HOU | TEN | GB | KC | OAK | DAL | 48 |
Jeff Haseley | SF | BAL | DET | IND | PHI | MIN | PIT | NYJ | CAR | DEN | NE | SEA | GB | KC | WAS | ARI | 45 |
John Mamula | SF | JAC | ATL | IND | PHI | TB | PIT | MIA | CAR | DEN | NE | TEN | GB | KC | OAK | DAL | 44 |
Justin Bonnema | LAR | JAC | DET | IND | PHI | TB | PIT | MIA | NO | DEN | NE | SEA | GB | KC | WAS | DAL | 49 |
Justin Howe | SF | JAC | DET | IND | PHI | MIN | CHI | MIA | CAR | DEN | NE | SEA | CIN | LAC | WAS | ARI | 47 |
Keith Roberts | LAR | BAL | DET | IND | PHI | TB | PIT | MIA | CAR | DEN | NE | TEN | GB | LAC | OAK | DAL | 44 |
Mark Wimer | LAR | BAL | ATL | CLE | PHI | MIN | PIT | MIA | NO | DEN | HOU | TEN | GB | LAC | WAS | DAL | 33 |
Matt Bitonti | LAR | BAL | ATL | CLE | PHI | TB | PIT | MIA | NO | DEN | NE | TEN | GB | KC | OAK | ARI | 52 |
Phil Alexander | SF | BAL | DET | CLE | NYG | MIN | CHI | MIA | NO | BUF | NE | SEA | GB | KC | WAS | ARI | 46 |
Steven Holloway | LAR | BAL | DET | CLE | PHI | TB | PIT | NYJ | CAR | DEN | HOU | SEA | CIN | LAC | OAK | DAL | 45 |
William Grant | SF | BAL | ATL | IND | PHI | TB | PIT | NYJ | NO | DEN | HOU | SEA | GB | KC | OAK | ARI | 48 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
We are getting closer to that true consensus pick, as there were two choices which garnered an overwhelming majority for Week 3. Denver (20) and Philadelphia (19) had over 80% of the staff leaning in their direction, which is quite interesting given that Denver is on the road. Week 3 has a lot of road favorites, so it is not too surprising to see a lot of the staff taking some road teams more than usual for the week. Three teams were chosen by 16 of 22 of the staff (Green Bay, Tampa Bay and the Rams) with only the Packers at home this week. Dallas (at Arizona) was next with 15 selections, but after that there were a lot of teams in the 11-14 selection range, which strongly hints that this is a tougher week to call. It should be noted that the site that we use for our picks (CBS) almost randomly gave Minnesota as a -2.5 favorite, but Las Vegas has no line on that game yet due to Sam Bradford's injury. For those reasons it is not too surprising that Tampa Bay received 16 of 22 picks. Once again, it should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
It's only the third week of the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com