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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | NYJ | BAL | MIA | DAL | TEN | KC | SF | CIN | NO | TB | SEA | ATL | JAX | INDY | GB | PHI | |||
Home Team: | BUF | CLE | NE | WASH | DET | HOU | CAR | PIT | NYG | AZ | LA | OAK | SD | DEN | MIN | CHI | |||
Favorite: | BUF | BAL | NE | WASH | DET | HOU | CAR | PIT | NYG | AZ | SEA | OAK | SD | DEN | GB | CHI | |||
Point Spread: | -0.5 | -6.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -1.5 | -13.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -5.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | |||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | NYJ | BAL | NE | DAL | DET | HOU | CAR | PIT | NYG | AZ | SEA | ATL | JAX | DEN | GB | PHI | 43 | 10 | 19 |
John Mamula | NYJ | CLE | MIA | DAL | TEN | HOU | CAR | PIT | NYG | AZ | SEA | ATL | SD | INDY | GB | CHI | 42 | 10 | 18 |
Andy Hicks | BUF | BAL | NE | WASH | TEN | HOU | CAR | PIT | NYG | AZ | LA | OAK | SD | DEN | MIN | CHI | 41 | 10 | 18 |
Justin Bonnema | NYJ | CLE | MIA | DAL | DET | HOU | CAR | PIT | NO | AZ | LA | ATL | JAX | INDY | GB | CHI | 48 | 10 | 11 |
Danny Tuccitto | NYJ | BAL | NE | DAL | DET | HOU | CAR | CIN | NO | AZ | SEA | ATL | SD | DEN | GB | CHI | 49 | 10 | 19 |
Chris Feery | NYJ | CLE | NE | DAL | TEN | KC | SF | PIT | NO | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | CHI | 42 | 9 | 15 |
Clayton Gray | NYJ | CLE | NE | DAL | DET | HOU | CAR | CIN | NYG | AZ | LA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | CHI | 45 | 9 | 18 |
William Grant | NYJ | BAL | NE | DAL | DET | HOU | CAR | CIN | NO | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | PHI | 41 | 9 | 15 |
Chris Kuczynski | NYJ | BAL | NE | DAL | DET | KC | SF | PIT | NO | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | PHI | 46 | 8 | 15 |
Dave Larkin | NYJ | CLE | NE | DAL | TEN | HOU | SF | CIN | NYG | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | CHI | 47 | 8 | 18 |
James Brimacombe | NYJ | BAL | MIA | DAL | TEN | HOU | CAR | CIN | NO | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | INDY | GB | PHI | 45 | 8 | 14 |
Andrew Garda | NYJ | BAL | NE | DAL | DET | HOU | SF | PIT | NYG | TB | SEA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | PHI | 45 | 7 | 13 |
Bear Heiser | NYJ | CLE | NE | DAL | DET | KC | SF | PIT | NO | TB | SEA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | CHI | 42 | 7 | 12 |
Jeff Haseley | NYJ | CLE | NE | DAL | DET | KC | SF | PIT | NO | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | INDY | GB | CHI | 43 | 7 | 15 |
Justin Howe | BUF | CLE | MIA | DAL | DET | HOU | SF | CIN | NO | TB | LA | ATL | JAX | INDY | GB | PHI | 42 | 7 | 17 |
Keith Roberts | NYJ | BAL | NE | WASH | DET | KC | CAR | PIT | NYG | AZ | LA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | CHI | 40 | 7 | 15 |
Mark Wimer | NYJ | BAL | NE | WASH | DET | HOU | SF | PIT | NYG | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | PHI | 52 | 7 | 15 |
Aaron Rudnicki | BUF | BAL | NE | DAL | TEN | KC | CAR | CIN | NO | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | INDY | GB | CHI | 44 | 6 | 15 |
Alessandro Miglio | BUF | CLE | MIA | DAL | DET | HOU | SF | PIT | NO | TB | SEA | OAK | SD | INDY | GB | CHI | 46 | 6 | 13 |
Jason Wood | NYJ | BAL | MIA | WASH | TEN | HOU | CAR | CIN | NO | TB | SEA | OAK | JAX | INDY | GB | PHI | 46 | 6 | 16 |
Phil Alexander | BUF | BAL | NE | WASH | TEN | HOU | SF | CIN | NYG | AZ | SEA | ATL | JAX | DEN | GB | CHI | 33 | 6 | 14 |
Matt Bitonti | NYJ | BAL | MIA | DAL | DET | KC | SF | CIN | NO | TB | SEA | OAK | JAX | INDY | GB | CHI | 48 | 5 | 15 |
Devin Knotts | BUF | CLE | MIA | WASH | DET | KC | SF | PIT | NYG | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | INDY | GB | PHI | 46 | 4 | 11 |
Five of the staff tied atop the standings with 10 correct picks for Week 2, including yours truly. Somehow I pulled off a win here by accurately predicting the 43 total points in the Eagles victory on Monday Night Football (29-14), barely edging out four others in yet another very difficult week. On a very difficult Week 1. John Mamula, Andy Hicks, Danny Tuccitto and Justin Bonnema all lost on the tiebreaker for total points, but all four of their numbers were within a touchdown of the final score. A particular "attaboy" goes to Mr. Bonnema, who won the George Costanza Award for getting just one game right last week. I call that out again here as I incorrectly gave that award to James Brimacombe (sorry). As I mentioned earlier, it was a tough Week 2, with the staff just one game better (176 correct picks) than Week 1 (175). The group was below .500 for the second week in a row, hovering in the 47-48% win range. That should improve as we get more and more information about the teams as the season progresses, but making picks on Wednesdays for Sunday and Monday is rather challenging. Things were going very well in Week 2 until the late afternoon Sunday games started and Jacksonville (19 incorrect picks), Oakland (17), Seattle (18) and then Green Bay (22) wrapped up a tough slate of games. Let's see what we learned after two weeks of NFL action.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | HOU | DEN | WASH | MIN | CLE | BAL | AZ | OAK | DET | LA | SF | SD | NYJ | PIT | CHI | ATL | ||
Home Team: | NE | CIN | NYG | CAR | MIA | JAX | BUF | TEN | GB | TB | SEA | INDY | KC | PHI | DAL | NO | ||
Favorite: | HOU | CIN | NYG | CAR | MIA | BAL | AZ | TEN | GB | TB | SEA | INDY | KC | PIT | DAL | NO | ||
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -6.5 | -9.5 | -0.5 | -4.5 | -1.5 | -7.5 | -4.5 | -9.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | ||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | Year to Date | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | HOU | DEN | WASH | CAR | MIA | JAX | AZ | OAK | GB | TB | SEA | INDY | NYJ | PIT | DAL | NO | 69 | 19 |
Aaron Rudnick | HOU | DEN | WASH | MIN | MIA | BAL | AZ | OAK | DET | LA | SF | INDY | NYJ | PIT | DAL | NO | 50 | 15 |
Alex Miglio | HOU | DEN | NYG | MIN | CLE | JAX | AZ | TEN | DET | TB | SF | INDY | KC | PIT | DAL | NO | 50 | 13 |
Andrew Garda | HOU | DEN | NYG | MIN | CLE | BAL | AZ | OAK | DET | TB | SF | INDY | KC | PIT | DAL | NO | 70 | 13 |
Andy Hicks | NE | CIN | NYG | CAR | MIA | JAX | BUF | TEN | GB | TB | SF | INDY | KC | PHI | DAL | NO | 45 | 18 |
Bear Heiser | HOU | DEN | NYG | CAR | CLE | JAX | AZ | OAK | DET | TB | SF | INDY | KC | PIT | DAL | NO | 56 | 12 |
Chris Feery | HOU | DEN | WASH | CAR | CLE | BAL | AZ | OAK | DET | LA | SEA | SD | NYJ | PIT | DAL | ATL | 52 | 15 |
Chris Kuczynski | HOU | DEN | NYG | CAR | MIA | BAL | AZ | OAK | GB | TB | SF | INDY | KC | PIT | DAL | NO | 53 | 15 |
Danny Tuccitto | HOU | DEN | WASH | CAR | MIA | BAL | BUF | TEN | DET | LA | SEA | INDY | NYJ | PHI | CHI | ATL | 49 | 19 |
Dave Larkin | NE | DEN | NYG | MIN | MIA | JAX | AZ | TEN | GB | TB | SEA | SD | NYJ | PHI | DAL | NO | 68 | 18 |
Devin Knotts | HOU | DEN | WASH | CAR | MIA | JAX | BUF | OAK | DET | TB | SF | SD | KC | PIT | CHI | NO | 55 | 11 |
James Brimacombe | HOU | DEN | WASH | CAR | MIA | JAX | AZ | OAK | GB | LA | SEA | INDY | NYJ | PHI | DAL | NO | 62 | 14 |
Jason Wood | HOU | DEN | NYG | CAR | MIA | JAX | AZ | TEN | DET | TB | SF | INDY | NYJ | PHI | DAL | ATL | 47 | 16 |
Jeff Haseley | HOU | DEN | NYG | CAR | CLE | JAX | AZ | TEN | DET | TB | SF | SD | KC | PHI | DAL | ATL | 51 | 15 |
John Mamula | HOU | DEN | NYG | CAR | MIA | JAX | AZ | OAK | DET | TB | SEA | INDY | KC | PIT | DAL | NO | 56 | 18 |
Justin Bonnema | HOU | CIN | NYG | CAR | MIA | JAX | AZ | OAK | DET | TB | SEA | INDY | NYJ | PIT | DAL | NO | 54 | 11 |
Justin Howe | NE | DEN | NYG | MIN | CLE | JAX | AZ | OAK | DET | LA | SEA | SD | NYJ | PHI | DAL | ATL | 54 | 17 |
Keith Roberts | HOU | DEN | NYG | CAR | MIA | BAL | AZ | TEN | DET | TB | SEA | INDY | NYJ | PIT | DAL | NO | 62 | 15 |
Mark Wimer | HOU | DEN | NYG | CAR | MIA | JAX | AZ | OAK | GB | TB | SEA | INDY | KC | PIT | DAL | ATL | 77 | 15 |
Matt Bitonti | HOU | CIN | NYG | CAR | MIA | BAL | BUF | TEN | GB | TB | SF | INDY | NYJ | PHI | DAL | ATL | 48 | 15 |
Phil Alexander | HOU | CIN | NYG | MIN | CLE | BAL | BUF | OAK | GB | LA | SEA | INDY | KC | PIT | DAL | ATL | 63 | 14 |
William Grant | HOU | DEN | NYG | CAR | CLE | JAX | AZ | OAK | DET | TB | SF | SD | KC | PIT | DAL | NO | 53 | 15 |
Clayton Gray | HOU | CIN | NYG | CAR | MIA | JAX | AZ | OAK | DET | LA | SF | INDY | NYJ | PIT | DAL | NO | 52 | 18 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
With two weeks now behind us, we are getting closer to a collective viewpoint of who are the best teams (and the worst). There is a little bit more consensus with the staff picks here in Week 3, as we start to get some sort of better understanding of who are the dominant teams – or who they could be. No team was picked unanimously, but both Dallas (21 of 23 picks) and Houston (20) were very close even though the Texans are traveling to Foxboro on Thursday night. That is clearly a vote for not just Houston but against the New England offense that will likely not have Rob Gronkowski or their top two quarterbacks. The two next-most popular calls were two road teams in Arizona heading to Buffalo and the underdog Denver Broncos heading to Cincinnati. Both teams received 18 of 23 votes this week. It appears the staff is not intimidated with the "teams traveling West for a 1PM Eastern game" narrative for the Cardinals. Three teams came in next with 17 picks (Carolina, Indianapolis and the New York Giants), all of them favored at home this week. Tampa Bay (16) edged out six other teams with 15 choices (Miami, Jacksonville, Oakland, Detroit, Pittsburgh and New Orleans) including three underdogs in the Lions, Raiders and Jaguars, with Jacksonville in a "Pick 'em" game with the Ravens in northern Florida this week. Las Vegas is much happier with two close call picks as both the San Francisco - Seattle and Jets - Chiefs contests are nearly dead even. It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
It's still quite early in the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.