Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
Note that the links above are for 2013 articles. Please see the Week 2 2014 Page at Footballguys.com for the 2014 Week 3 updates.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | PIT | DET | ATL | NE | DAL | JAX | AZ | MIA | NO | STL | SEA | KC | NYJ | HOU | CHI | PHI | |||
Home Team: | BAL | CAR | CIN | MIN | TEN | WAS | NYG | BUF | CLE | TB | SD | DEN | GB | OAK | SF | IND | |||
Favorite: | BAL | CAR | CIN | NE | TEN | WAS | NYG | MIA | NO | TB | SEA | DEN | GB | HOU | SF | IND | |||
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -6.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -13.5 | -8.5 | -2.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | |||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | Year | |||||||||||||||
Phil Alexander | BAL | DET | CIN | NE | DAL | JAX | AZ | BUF | CLE | STL | SD | KC | GB | HOU | CHI | PHI | 59 | 13 | 22 |
Dan Hindery | BAL | CAR | CIN | NE | DAL | JAX | AZ | MIA | NO | TB | SEA | DEN | GB | HOU | CHI | PHI | 52 | 9 | 19 |
Jason Wood | BAL | DET | CIN | NE | TEN | JAX | AZ | MIA | NO | TB | SEA | KC | NYJ | HOU | CHI | PHI | 59 | 9 | 16 |
Jeff Haseley | PIT | DET | CIN | MIN | TEN | JAX | AZ | BUF | CLE | STL | SD | KC | NYJ | OAK | SF | PHI | 52 | 9 | 14 |
Jeff Pasquino | BAL | DET | CIN | NE | TEN | JAX | AZ | MIA | NO | TB | SEA | KC | GB | HOU | CHI | PHI | 65 | 8 | 14 |
Andy Hicks | BAL | CAR | ATL | MIN | TEN | JAX | AZ | BUF | CLE | STL | SEA | DEN | NYJ | OAK | SF | PHI | 61 | 8 | 13 |
Matt Bitonti | PIT | CAR | CIN | NE | TEN | JAX | NYG | BUF | NO | TB | SEA | KC | NYJ | HOU | SF | PHI | 62 | 8 | 15 |
Clayton Gray | PIT | DET | ATL | NE | DAL | WAS | AZ | BUF | NO | TB | SD | DEN | GB | HOU | SF | IND | 53 | 7 | 12 |
Alessandro Miglio | PIT | DET | CIN | NE | TEN | JAX | AZ | BUF | NO | TB | SD | KC | GB | OAK | SF | IND | 53 | 6 | 12 |
Dave Larkin | PIT | DET | ATL | NE | TEN | WAS | NYG | BUF | CLE | TB | SEA | KC | GB | OAK | SF | PHI | 73 | 6 | 13 |
James Brimacombe | PIT | DET | ATL | NE | DAL | JAX | NYG | BUF | NO | TB | SEA | DEN | GB | HOU | CHI | PHI | 56 | 6 | 13 |
Justin Bonnema | PIT | DET | ATL | MIN | DAL | JAX | AZ | BUF | NO | TB | SEA | DEN | GB | HOU | CHI | PHI | 55 | 6 | 10 |
Mark Wimer | BAL | DET | ATL | NE | TEN | JAX | AZ | MIA | NO | TB | SEA | KC | GB | HOU | SF | PHI | 73 | 6 | 14 |
Maurile Tremblay | PIT | DET | CIN | MIN | TEN | JAX | AZ | MIA | NO | TB | SD | KC | NYJ | OAK | SF | PHI | 50 | 6 | 14 |
Aaron Rudnicki | PIT | DET | ATL | NE | DAL | JAX | AZ | BUF | NO | TB | SEA | DEN | GB | HOU | SF | IND | 52 | 5 | 13 |
Andrew Garda | PIT | DET | ATL | NE | TEN | JAX | AZ | MIA | NO | TB | SEA | KC | NYJ | OAK | SF | PHI | 40 | 5 | 10 |
Bear Heiser | PIT | DET | ATL | NE | TEN | JAX | AZ | BUF | NO | TB | SEA | DEN | GB | HOU | CHI | IND | 59 | 5 | 13 |
John Lee | BAL | DET | ATL | MIN | TEN | JAX | AZ | BUF | NO | TB | SEA | DEN | NYJ | OAK | CHI | IND | 55 | 5 | 16 |
Will Grant | PIT | DET | ATL | NE | DAL | JAX | AZ | BUF | NO | TB | SEA | DEN | GB | HOU | SF | IND | 54 | 5 | 12 |
Steve Holloway | PIT | DET | ATL | NE | TEN | JAX | AZ | BUF | NO | TB | SEA | DEN | GB | OAK | CHI | IND | 64 | 4 | 8 |
Danny Tuccitto | PIT | DET | ATL | MIN | TEN | JAX | AZ | BUF | NO | TB | SEA | DEN | GB | OAK | SF | PHI | 49 | 3 | 11 |
Phil Alexander finished in first for the week with a strong 13 picks correct and building a commanding overall total of 22 out of a possible 32 correct through two weeks. Dan Hindery, Jason Wood and Jeff Haseley tied for second with nine correct, showing that it was a very difficult week for the staff as only four staffers had a winning record. Three staffers were one pick behind, breaking even with eight correct selections for the week. Seven others brought up the rear with just 3-5 correct selections, but the season is long and this is much harder than it looks. Just look at the picks for New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Seattle and Detroit last week as proof. In fact, there were five games where 75% of the staff were wrong (NO, DET, JAX, TB, SEA), which puts a big damper on any big win streaks for Week 2.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | TB | TEN | IND | SD | WAS | OAK | HOU | MIN | GB | BAL | DAL | SF | DEN | KC | PIT | CHI | |
Home Team: | ATL | CIN | JAX | BUF | PHI | NE | NYG | NO | DET | CLE | STL | AZ | SEA | MIA | CAR | NYJ | |
Favorite: | ATL | CIN | IND | BUF | PHI | NE | HOU | NO | DET | BAL | DAL | SF | SEA | MIA | CAR | NYJ | |
Point Spread: | -6.5 | -6.5 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | -14.5 | -2.5 | -9.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -1.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | ATL | CIN | IND | SD | PHI | NE | NYG | MIN | GB | BAL | DAL | SF | DEN | KC | CAR | CHI | 47 |
Aaron Rudnicki | ATL | CIN | IND | BUF | WASH | NE | HOU | NO | GB | BAL | DAL | SF | DEN | KC | PIT | CHI | 45 |
Alessandro Miglio | ATL | CIN | JAX | BUF | WASH | OAK | NYG | NO | GB | BAL | STL | AZ | SEA | MIA | CAR | NYJ | 49 |
Andrew Garda | ATL | CIN | IND | SD | PHI | NE | HOU | NO | GB | BAL | DAL | SF | SEA | MIA | CAR | NYJ | 60 |
Andy Hicks | TB | CIN | JAX | BUF | WASH | OAK | HOU | NO | GB | CLE | STL | AZ | SEA | KC | PIT | NYJ | 49 |
Bear Heiser | ATL | CIN | IND | SD | WASH | NE | NYG | NO | GB | CLE | DAL | AZ | DEN | MIA | CAR | CHI | 48 |
Clayton Gray | ATL | CIN | IND | SD | WASH | NE | NYG | NO | GB | CLE | DAL | AZ | DEN | MIA | CAR | NYJ | 37 |
Dan Hindery | TB | TEN | IND | SD | PHI | OAK | HOU | NO | DET | BAL | DAL | SF | SEA | KC | CAR | CHI | 49 |
Danny Tuccitto | ATL | CIN | IND | BUF | WASH | NE | NYG | NO | DET | BAL | DAL | SF | SEA | MIA | CAR | CHI | 49 |
Dave Larkin | ATL | CIN | IND | SD | PHI | NE | HOU | NO | GB | BAL | STL | SF | SEA | KC | PIT | NYJ | 47 |
James Brimacombe | ATL | CIN | IND | SD | PHI | NE | HOU | NO | DET | CLE | DAL | SF | DEN | KC | PIT | CHI | 42 |
Jason Wood | TB | CIN | IND | SD | PHI | NE | NYG | NO | GB | BAL | DAL | SF | DEN | MIA | PIT | NYJ | 49 |
Jeff Haseley | TB | CIN | JAX | SD | PHI | NE | NYG | MIN | DET | CLE | STL | AZ | SEA | KC | CAR | CHI | 47 |
John Lee | ATL | CIN | JAX | BUF | WASH | OAK | NYG | NO | DET | BAL | DAL | SF | DEN | KC | CAR | CHI | 46 |
Justin Bonnema | ATL | CIN | JAX | SD | WASH | NE | NYG | NO | GB | BAL | DAL | SF | DEN | KC | CAR | CHI | 48 |
Mark Wimer | ATL | CIN | IND | BUF | PHI | NE | HOU | NO | GB | BAL | DAL | AZ | DEN | MIA | CAR | CHI | 38 |
Matt Bitonti | ATL | CIN | JAX | BUF | WASH | OAK | HOU | NO | DET | CLE | DAL | SF | DEN | MIA | CAR | NYJ | 45 |
Maurile Tremblay | TB | TEN | JAX | BUF | WASH | OAK | HOU | MIN | DET | BAL | STL | AZ | SEA | MIA | PIT | NYJ | 39 |
Phil Alexander | TB | TEN | IND | SD | PHI | OAK | NYG | NO | GB | BAL | DAL | AZ | SEA | KC | PIT | CHI | 50 |
Steve Holloway | ATL | CIN | IND | SD | WASH | OAK | HOU | NO | GB | BAL | DAL | AZ | DEN | MIA | CAR | CHI | 41 |
Will Grant | ATL | CIN | IND | SD | PHI | NE | HOU | NO | GB | BAL | DAL | SF | SEA | MIA | CAR | NYJ | 52 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
With two weeks behind us, you would think that there would be some sort of better understanding of who are the dominant teams – but you would never know it from looking at the 21 sets of picks this week. No team was picked unanimously, and the closest were CIncinnati and New Orleans(18 of 21 staff). Las Vegas would love these sets of picks on Philadelphia / Washington, Houston / New York Giants, Seattle / Denver and Miami / Kansas City as the choices were split almost exactly in half for all these contests. It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
It's still quite early in the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
A thought from Clayton Gray: I suck at this. I also meant to put 47 for the MNF total points.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.