Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
Note that the links above are for 2013 articles. Please see the Week 1 2014 Page at Footballguys.com for the 2014 Week 1 updates.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week.
Road Team: | GB | BUF | OAK | TEN | MIN | JAX | WAS | CLE | NE | CIN | NO | CAR | SF | IND | NYG | SD | |
Home Team: | SEA | CHI | NYJ | KC | STL | PHI | HOU | PIT | MIA | BAL | ATL | TB | DAL | DEN | DET | AZ | |
Favorite: | SEA | CHI | NYJ | KC | STL | PHI | HOU | PIT | NE | BAL | NO | TB | SF | DEN | DET | AZ | |
Point Spread: | -5.5 | -6.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -10.5 | -2.5 | -6.5 | -4.5 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -5.5 | -7.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | SEA | CHI | NYJ | KC | MIN | PHI | HOU | PIT | NE | BAL | NO | CAR | DAL | DEN | DET | AZ | 43 |
Aaron Rudnicki | SEA | CHI | NYJ | KC | MIN | JAX | HOU | PIT | NE | CIN | NO | TB | SF | IND | DET | SD | 40 |
Alessandro Miglio | SEA | BUF | NYJ | KC | STL | JAX | HOU | PIT | NE | BAL | ATL | TB | DAL | IND | DET | AZ | 45 |
Andy Hicks | GB | CHI | NYJ | TEN | STL | JAX | WAS | CLE | NE | CIN | NO | TB | DAL | DEN | DET | SD | 52 |
Bear Heiser | SEA | CHI | NYJ | TEN | MIN | JAX | WAS | PIT | NE | CIN | NO | CAR | SF | DEN | DET | SD | 52 |
Clayton Gray | SEA | CHI | NYJ | KC | STL | PHI | HOU | PIT | NE | BAL | ATL | TB | DAL | DEN | DET | AZ | 41 |
Dan Hindery | SEA | CHI | NYJ | TEN | MIN | PHI | HOU | CLE | NE | CIN | NO | CAR | DAL | DEN | DET | SD | 38 |
Danny Tuccitto | SEA | CHI | NYJ | KC | STL | PHI | HOU | PIT | NE | CIN | NO | CAR | SF | DEN | DET | SD | |
Dave Larkin | SEA | CHI | NYJ | TEN | MIN | JAX | HOU | PIT | NE | BAL | ATL | TB | DAL | DEN | DET | SD | 55 |
James Brimacombe | GB | CHI | NYJ | KC | MIN | PHI | WAS | PIT | NE | CIN | NO | CAR | DAL | IND | DET | SD | 45 |
John Lee | SEA | BUF | OAK | KC | STL | PHI | HOU | PIT | MIA | BAL | ATL | TB | SF | IND | DET | SD | 47 |
Mark Wimer | GB | BUF | NYJ | KC | STL | PHI | HOU | PIT | NE | CIN | NO | CAR | SF | DEN | DET | SD | 52 |
Matt Bitonti | SEA | CHI | NYJ | KC | MIN | PHI | WAS | CLE | NE | CIN | NO | TB | DAL | IND | DET | AZ | 53 |
Maurile Tremblay | SEA | BUF | NYJ | TEN | STL | PHI | WAS | PIT | NE | CIN | NO | CAR | SF | DEN | NYG | SD | 47 |
Phil Alexander | GB | CHI | NYJ | TEN | MIN | PHI | HOU | CLE | NE | CIN | ATL | TB | SF | DEN | DET | AZ | 44 |
Steve Holloway | GB | CHI | NYJ | KC | STL | JAX | HOU | PIT | NE | BAL | NO | TB | DAL | IND | DET | SD | 41 |
Will Grant | SEA | CHI | NYJ | KC | MIN | PHI | WAS | PIT | NE | BAL | NO | CAR | SF | DEN | DET | SD | 56 |
Andrew Garda | |||||||||||||||||
Justin Bonnema |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Its opening weekend, but you would have expected some consensus on a few picks – but you can clearly see the difference of making picks against the spread instead of just picking winners here. No team was picked unanimously, and the closest were the Jets (16 of 17 staff) and Detroit (also 16 of 17), both at home. The Jets are a tricky pick against a rookie starting quarterback in Derek Carr, as New York has a very thin Week 1 secondary. Several other teams were in the 75% range (Seattle, Chicago, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, San Diego), with the Chargers being an interesting underdog consensus selection. Only three games (St. Louis / Minnesota, Carolina / Tampa Bay, Dallas / San Francisco) were near split decisions in Week 1. It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
Note that at time of publication (Thursday AM), Andrew Garda and Justin Bonnema had yet to enter their picks.
ODDS AND ENDS
It's the first week of the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.