Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
Note that the links above are for 2013 articles. Please see the Week 17 2014 Page at Footballguys.com for the 2014 Week 17 updates.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | TEN | PHI | SD | NE | MIN | DET | ATL | BAL | GB | KC | CLE | NYG | INDY | BUF | SEA | DEN | |||
Home Team: | JAX | WASH | SF | NYJ | MIA | CHI | NO | HOU | TB | PIT | CAR | STL | DAL | OAK | AZ | CIN | |||
Favorite: | JAX | PHI | SF | NE | MIA | DET | NO | BAL | GB | PIT | CAR | STL | DAL | BUF | SEA | DEN | |||
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -8.5 | -2.5 | -10.5 | -6.5 | -4.5 | -6.5 | -4.5 | -10.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -5.5 | -2.5 | -6.5 | -8.5 | -3.5 | |||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | Year | |||||||||||||||
Danny Tuccitto | TEN | WASH | SD | NYJ | MIN | DET | ATL | HOU | TB | PIT | CLE | NYG | INDY | OAK | AZ | CIN | 49 | 12 | 113 |
Aaron Rudnicki | JAX | WASH | SD | NE | MIN | DET | ATL | BAL | GB | PIT | CAR | NYG | INDY | OAK | SEA | DEN | 45 | 11 | 127 |
Alessandro Miglio | JAX | PHI | SD | NYJ | MIN | DET | ATL | HOU | TB | PIT | CAR | STL | INDY | OAK | SEA | DEN | 54 | 10 | 123 |
Dave Larkin | JAX | PHI | SD | NE | MIN | CHI | NO | BAL | GB | PIT | CLE | NYG | DAL | OAK | AZ | CIN | 45 | 10 | 122 |
Mark Wimer | TEN | PHI | SD | NYJ | MIN | DET | ATL | BAL | GB | PIT | CAR | NYG | DAL | BUF | SEA | DEN | 52 | 10 | 119 |
Maurile Tremblay | TEN | WASH | SD | NYJ | MIN | DET | ATL | HOU | TB | KC | CLE | NYG | INDY | OAK | AZ | DEN | 43 | 10 | 111 |
John Lee | TEN | WASH | SF | NYJ | MIA | DET | ATL | BAL | GB | KC | CAR | STL | DAL | OAK | SEA | CIN | 47 | 9 | 120 |
Justin Bonnema | JAX | PHI | SD | NYJ | MIN | DET | NO | BAL | TB | PIT | CAR | NYG | DAL | BUF | SEA | DEN | 56 | 9 | 122 |
Matt Bitonti | JAX | PHI | SD | NYJ | MIN | DET | ATL | BAL | TB | PIT | CAR | NYG | INDY | OAK | AZ | DEN | 49 | 9 | 127 |
Phil Alexander | TEN | WASH | SF | NE | MIA | DET | ATL | BAL | GB | PIT | CAR | NYG | DAL | OAK | SEA | DEN | 43 | 9 | 132 |
Jeff Pasquino | JAX | PHI | SD | NE | MIN | DET | ATL | BAL | GB | PIT | CAR | STL | INDY | BUF | SEA | DEN | 54 | 8 | 118 |
James Brimacombe | TEN | PHI | SD | NE | MIN | CHI | ATL | HOU | GB | KC | CLE | NYG | INDY | BUF | SEA | DEN | 52 | 8 | 115 |
Jeff Haseley | JAX | WASH | SD | NYJ | MIN | CHI | ATL | HOU | TB | KC | CLE | STL | INDY | BUF | AZ | DEN | 47 | 8 | 115 |
Steve Holloway | JAX | WASH | SF | NE | MIA | DET | NO | HOU | TB | PIT | CAR | NYG | DAL | OAK | AZ | DEN | 52 | 8 | 116 |
Andy Hicks | JAX | PHI | SF | NE | MIN | DET | ATL | BAL | GB | KC | CAR | STL | DAL | BUF | SEA | DEN | 47 | 7 | 110 |
Bear Heiser | JAX | PHI | SF | NYJ | MIN | CHI | ATL | BAL | GB | KC | CLE | NYG | INDY | BUF | SEA | DEN | 60 | 7 | 112 |
Clayton Gray | TEN | PHI | SD | NE | MIA | DET | ATL | BAL | GB | KC | CLE | NYG | INDY | BUF | SEA | DEN | 49 | 7 | 119 |
Dan Hindery | JAX | PHI | SD | NE | MIA | DET | ATL | BAL | GB | KC | CLE | STL | INDY | BUF | AZ | DEN | 44 | 6 | 128 |
Jason Wood | JAX | PHI | SD | NE | MIN | DET | NO | BAL | GB | KC | CAR | NYG | INDY | BUF | AZ | DEN | 45 | 6 | 117 |
Will Grant | JAX | PHI | SD | NE | MIA | DET | NO | BAL | GB | PIT | CAR | STL | INDY | OAK | AZ | DEN | 51 | 6 | 119 |
Andrew Garda | JAX | PHI | SF | NE | MIN | DET | NO | BAL | GB | PIT | CAR | STL | INDY | BUF | AZ | DEN | 50 | 5 | 107 |
Danny Tuccitto finished atop the standings in Week 16, logging a solid 12 correct picks. Aaron Rudnicki was one pick behind with 11 correct, followed by four staffers with 10 accurate choices. Over half of the remaining staf members followed closely were in the 7-9 correct pick range, a solid performance with several Week 16 upsets. Overall it was a solid week with the staff over 50% (175-161), Overall the group is hovering near 50% (2492-2548, 49.4%) with Phil Alexander (132), Dan Hindery (128), Aaron Rudnicki (127), and Matt Bitonti (127) the Top 4 in the group with just one week left on the season.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | PHI | JAX | NYJ | CHI | BUF | SD | NO | CLE | INDY | DAL | STL | AZ | DET | OAK | CAR | CIN | |
Home Team: | NYG | HOU | MIA | MIN | NE | KC | TB | BAL | TEN | WASH | SEA | SF | GB | DEN | ATL | PIT | |
Favorite: | NYG | HOU | MIA | MIN | NE | KC | NO | BAL | INDY | DAL | SEA | SF | GB | DEN | ATL | PIT | |
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -10.5 | -5.5 | -6.5 | -10.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -9.5 | -7.5 | -6.5 | -12.5 | -5.5 | -7.5 | -14.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | NYG | HOU | MIA | CHI | BUF | SD | NO | BAL | INDY | WASH | SEA | AZ | GB | DEN | CAR | PIT | 61 |
Aaron Rudnicki | PHI | JAX | MIA | MIN | BUF | KC | NO | BAL | INDY | WASH | SEA | SF | GB | OAK | ATL | CIN | 50 |
Alessandro Miglio | NYG | JAX | MIA | MIN | BUF | KC | NO | CLE | INDY | DAL | STL | AZ | GB | OAK | ATL | PIT | 49 |
Andrew Garda | PHI | HOU | MIA | MIN | NE | SD | NO | CLE | INDY | DAL | STL | SF | DET | OAK | ATL | PIT | 50 |
Andy Hicks | PHI | JAX | NYJ | MIN | NE | KC | NO | BAL | TEN | DAL | SEA | SF | GB | OAK | ATL | CIN | 45 |
Bear Heiser | NYG | HOU | NYJ | CHI | NE | SD | NO | BAL | INDY | DAL | STL | AZ | DET | OAK | ATL | PIT | 46 |
Clayton Gray | NYG | HOU | MIA | MIN | BUF | SD | NO | BAL | INDY | WASH | SEA | SF | GB | OAK | ATL | PIT | 49 |
Dan Hindery | NYG | JAX | MIA | MIN | BUF | SD | NO | CLE | TEN | WASH | SEA | SF | DET | OAK | ATL | CIN | 38 |
Danny Tuccitto | PHI | JAX | MIA | CHI | BUF | SD | TB | CLE | TEN | WASH | STL | AZ | DET | OAK | CAR | CIN | 49 |
Dave Larkin | PHI | JAX | NYJ | MIN | BUF | SD | NO | BAL | INDY | DAL | SEA | AZ | GB | OAK | CAR | CIN | 51 |
Jason Wood | PHI | JAX | MIA | MIN | BUF | SD | TB | CLE | INDY | DAL | STL | SF | DET | DEN | CAR | CIN | 45 |
Jeff Haseley | PHI | JAX | MIA | CHI | BUF | KC | TB | BAL | INDY | WASH | STL | AZ | GB | DEN | ATL | PIT | 48 |
John Lee | NYG | JAX | MIA | MIN | NE | KC | TB | BAL | TEN | WASH | SEA | SF | GB | OAK | ATL | CIN | 50 |
Justin Bonnema | PHI | JAX | MIA | CHI | BUF | SD | NO | BAL | INDY | WASH | STL | AZ | GB | OAK | ATL | PIT | 52 |
Mark Wimer | NYG | HOU | NYJ | MIN | BUF | KC | NO | CLE | INDY | DAL | SEA | SF | GB | DEN | ATL | PIT | 49 |
Matt Bitonti | NYG | HOU | MIA | MIN | BUF | SD | NO | BAL | INDY | WASH | STL | AZ | GB | OAK | ATL | PIT | 51 |
Maurile Tremblay | PHI | JAX | NYJ | CHI | BUF | KC | TB | CLE | TEN | WASH | STL | AZ | DET | OAK | CAR | CIN | 50 |
Phil Alexander | NYG | JAX | MIA | CHI | BUF | KC | NO | BAL | INDY | WASH | SEA | SF | GB | DEN | ATL | PIT | 43 |
Steve Holloway | NYG | JAX | MIA | CHI | NE | SD | NO | BAL | INDY | WASH | STL | AZ | GB | OAK | ATL | PIT | 47 |
Will Grant | PHI | JAX | MIA | CHI | BUF | SD | NO | BAL | INDY | WASH | STL | AZ | GB | OAK | CAR | PIT | 48 |
James Brimacombe |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
With only Week 17 left you would think that there would be some sort of better understanding of who are the dominant teams – but you would never know it from looking at the sets of picks this week. No team was picked unanimously, and the closest were Houston (14 of 19 staff), Miami (14), Buffalo (14), New Orleans (14), Indianapolis (14) and Denver (14). Keep in mind for the Buffalo / New England contest that the point spread moved radically after the upset of Denver on Monday Night Football, so getting Buffalo at +10.5 (it is more like 3 or 4 now) is a big swing. It still remains questionable if Dallas and Indianapolis will play starters all of Week 17 with next to nothing at stake for either team and a game coming up next week in the Wild Card round, so be careful with those choices as well. Lastly, as I like to point out each week, Las Vegas would love these sets of picks on Philadelphia / New York Giants and Chicago / Minnesota as the choices were split almost exactly in half for all these contests. It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
There is just one week left but and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.