Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (16) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
Note that the links above are for 2012 articles. Please see the Week 12 2013 Page at Footballguys.com for the 2013 Week 12 updates.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | IND | ATL | NYJ | DET | WAS | BAL | AZ | OAK | CLE | SD | GB | MIN | SF | KC | NE | |||
Home Team: | TEN | TB | BUF | PIT | PHI | CHI | JAX | HOU | CIN | MIA | NYG | SEA | NO | DEN | CAR | |||
Favorite: | IND | ATL | BUF | DET | PHI | CHI | AZ | HOU | CIN | MIA | NYG | SEA | NO | DEN | CAR | |||
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -7.5 | -6.5 | -1.5 | -6.5 | -13.5 | -3.5 | -8.5 | -2.5 | |||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | Year | ||||||||||||||
Ryan Hester | TEN | TB | BUF | PIT | PHI | BAL | JAX | HOU | CLE | SD | NYG | SEA | SF | DEN | CAR | 42 | 11 | 83 |
Heath Cummings | TEN | TB | NYJ | DET | WAS | BAL | AZ | OAK | CIN | SD | NYG | SEA | SF | DEN | NE | 43 | 10 | 82 |
Aaron Rudnicki | IND | TB | BUF | DET | PHI | BAL | JAX | OAK | CIN | SD | GB | SEA | SF | DEN | NE | 44 | 9 | 78 |
Andy Hicks | TEN | TB | NYJ | DET | PHI | BAL | AZ | OAK | CIN | SD | GB | MIN | SF | KC | CAR | 45 | 9 | 81 |
Adam Harstad | IND | TB | BUF | DET | PHI | CHI | AZ | HOU | CIN | SD | GB | MIN | NO | DEN | CAR | 52 | 7 | 80 |
Matt Bitonti | IND | TB | NYJ | DET | PHI | BAL | JAX | OAK | CLE | SD | NYG | SEA | NO | KC | CAR | 58 | 7 | 81 |
Steve Holloway | IND | TB | BUF | DET | PHI | CHI | JAX | OAK | CIN | SD | NYG | SEA | NO | KC | NE | 46 | 7 | 79 |
Jeff Pasquino | TEN | ATL | NYJ | DET | WAS | CHI | AZ | HOU | CIN | SD | NYG | SEA | NO | DEN | NE | 47 | 6 | 78 |
Dave Larkin | IND | TB | NYJ | PIT | PHI | CHI | AZ | HOU | CLE | SD | GB | MIN | NO | DEN | CAR | 48 | 6 | 77 |
Greg Russell | IND | TB | NYJ | DET | WAS | BAL | AZ | HOU | CIN | SD | GB | SEA | NO | KC | CAR | 47 | 6 | 73 |
James Brimacombe | IND | TB | NYJ | DET | PHI | CHI | AZ | HOU | CIN | SD | GB | SEA | SF | KC | NE | 44 | 6 | 71 |
Jeff Haseley | TEN | TB | BUF | PIT | WAS | CHI | JAX | OAK | CLE | SD | GB | MIN | NO | KC | CAR | 45 | 6 | 78 |
Maurile Tremblay | TEN | TB | NYJ | PIT | WAS | BAL | JAX | OAK | CLE | SD | GB | MIN | SF | KC | NE | 38 | 6 | 77 |
Mark Wimer | IND | TB | NYJ | DET | PHI | CHI | AZ | HOU | CIN | SD | GB | MIN | NO | KC | CAR | 30 | 5 | 78 |
Jason Wood | IND | ATL | NYJ | DET | PHI | BAL | AZ | HOU | CIN | SD | GB | MIN | NO | KC | NE | 41 | 4 | 69 |
Will Grant | IND | ATL | NYJ | DET | PHI | BAL | JAX | HOU | CLE | SD | GB | SEA | NO | KC | NE | 42 | 3 | 72 |
Ryan Hester had a fantastic week, getting 11 of 15 games correct and pulling away with the Week 11 victory. Heath Cummings finished a close second with 10 solid wins, followed by two staffers with nine correct selections. For the first time all year, the group went 0 for 16 on a game, losing across the board with San Diego. Six other contests resulted in double-digit losses for the staff, highlighted by Detroit’s loss in Pittsburgh that gave the group 12 losses. Both Green Bay and the Jets gave out 11 losses to the group, while New Orleans, Indianapolis and Kansas City provided 10 each. As a whole, the staff had a losing week, finishing just below .500 by four picks (108-116), equating to a modest 48.2% winning percentage.
For the season, only two members of the 16-man group have a winning record (more than 81 correct) – Ryan Hester and Heath Cummings. Andy Hicks and Matt Bitonti are exactly even with 81 wins on the year, while Adam Harstad is just one correct pick behind. Not a bad performance overall, but the group is still below .500 as a collective, with a total record of 1,237-1,355 (47.7%).
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | NO | NYJ | CHI | SD | PIT | MIN | TB | JAX | CAR | TEN | IND | DAL | DEN | SF | |
Home Team: | ATL | BAL | STL | KC | CLE | GB | DET | HOU | MIA | OAK | AZ | NYG | NE | WAS | |
Favorite: | NO | BAL | STL | KC | CLE | GB | DET | HOU | CAR | OAK | AZ | NYG | DEN | SF | |
Point Spread: | -8.5 | -3.5 | -1.5 | -5.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -9.5 | -10.5 | -3.5 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -5.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | NO | NYJ | CHI | KC | PIT | GB | DET | JAX | CAR | OAK | IND | DAL | DEN | SF | 44 |
Aaron Rudnicki | NO | BAL | STL | KC | PIT | GB | TB | JAX | MIA | TEN | IND | DAL | DEN | SF | 42 |
Adam Harstad | NO | BAL | CHI | SD | CLE | GB | TB | HOU | CAR | TEN | AZ | DAL | DEN | WAS | 52 |
Andy Hicks | NO | NYJ | STL | KC | PIT | MIN | TB | HOU | CAR | TEN | AZ | DAL | NE | SF | 51 |
Dave Larkin | NO | BAL | CHI | SD | PIT | GB | TB | HOU | CAR | TEN | AZ | NYG | DEN | WAS | 49 |
Greg Russell | NO | NYJ | CHI | KC | CLE | GB | DET | JAX | CAR | OAK | IND | DAL | DEN | SF | 45 |
Heath Cummings | ATL | BAL | CHI | KC | PIT | GB | DET | JAX | CAR | TEN | IND | DAL | DEN | SF | 37 |
James Brimacombe | NO | BAL | CHI | KC | PIT | GB | DET | JAX | CAR | TEN | IND | DAL | DEN | SF | 47 |
Jason Wood | ATL | NYJ | STL | KC | PIT | GB | TB | JAX | CAR | TEN | IND | DAL | DEN | SF | 44 |
Jeff Haseley | NO | BAL | CHI | KC | CLE | GB | TB | JAX | CAR | TEN | IND | NYG | DEN | SF | 51 |
Mark Wimer | NO | NYJ | CHI | KC | CLE | GB | DET | HOU | CAR | OAK | IND | DAL | NE | SF | 35 |
Matt Bitonti | NO | BAL | STL | KC | PIT | GB | TB | JAX | CAR | OAK | IND | NYG | DEN | SF | 62 |
Maurile Tremblay | ATL | BAL | STL | SD | CLE | MIN | TB | JAX | MIA | OAK | AZ | DAL | NE | WAS | 45 |
Ryan Hester | NO | NYJ | STL | SD | CLE | GB | DET | HOU | MIA | OAK | AZ | DAL | NE | WAS | 49 |
Steve Holloway | NO | BAL | CHI | KC | CLE | GB | TB | JAX | CAR | OAK | AZ | NYG | DEN | SF | 41 |
Will Grant | NO | BAL | CHI | KC | PIT | GB | DET | JAX | CAR | OAK | IND | DAL | DEN | SF | 47 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Weeks 10 and 11 had one game that was picked by everyone, but that streak ends here in Week 12. Some consensus picks do exist for Week 12, led by 14 of 16 staffers going with Green Bay giving just 3.5 points at home against Minnesota (which appears to be a generous point spread, with most of Las Vegas having that game as a bigger spread at 4 or 4.5). New Orleans and Carolina are next with 13 picks, while Kansas City, Dallas, Denver and New England all received 12 selections this week. The staff was split right down the middle on the Tennessee / Oakland contest. It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are two-thirds of the way into the regular season, so you would think this would start to get easier, but the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!